Daily Market Reports | Apr 23 2024
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
ADT AMP AOF BGL BOQ CAI CEL CGF CMM CNU DEG EVN (2) GDG GMD (2) GOR (2) IMM KCN NST ORR PDI PPS (2) PRU RED RMD RMS RRL RSG RXL SLR SPR TIE TLX (2)
ADT ADRIATIC METALS PLC
Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $4.53
Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADT)) as Speculative Buy (1) -
Canaccord Genuity highlights ASX-listed gold equities continue to trade at material discounts to their all-time highs, despite all-time high gold prices. These equities are expected to outperform and close the gap to the rising gold price.
Since January, silver has jumped by 21% (versus the 16% rise for the US dollar gold price), but is still some -40% off its April 2011 all-time high of just below US$50/oz, notes the broker.
Canaccord raises its near-term US gold price estimates (2024-26) by an average of 8.3%, and from 2028 by 10.3% to US$2,582/oz. The long-term US silver price forecast is increased by 8.8%, with near-term estimates raised by an average of 7%.
For senior and junior producers under the broker's coverage, target prices rise on average by 12% and 11%, respectively. Across developers/explorers the targets have increase by 11% on average.
The Speculative Buy rating is maintained for developer/explorer Adriatic Metals and the target price climbs to $5.35 from $4.30. Silver and gold makes up 55% of the the broker's revenue forecast. The overall valuation is moved to a risking of 90% from 85%.
This report was published on April 18, 2024.
Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.82
If ADT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AMP AMP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments - Overnight Price: $1.10
Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) -
Assets under management (AUM) in the 1Q for AMP's Australian Wealth Management division were in line with Jarden's expectations, with slightly stronger market returns offsetting marginally higher net outflows..
Unfortunately, the Bank's loan book contracted by -3.9% over the period, prompting the broker to lower its EPS outlook by around -3%, though FY24 Bank net interest margin (NIM) guidance remains intact.
Total 1Q net flows of -$759m (including pension payments) across Australian Platforms and Master Trusts missed the Jarden's forecast by -23.5%, though was offset by stronger investment returns.
The Neutral rating is maintained given only moderate share price upside to the analyst's new $1.17 target, down from $1.20.
This report was published on April 17, 2024.
Target price is $1.17 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.07
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting downside of -0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 1011.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.78.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 38.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AOF AUSTRALIAN UNITY OFFICE FUND
REITs - Overnight Price: $1.30
Moelis rates ((AOF)) as Buy (1) -
In Australian Unity Office Fund's fifth divestment since June 2022, notes Moelis, 150 Charlotte St has been sold for $64.5m, a 4% premium to December's book value.
Following settlement, the analyst expects a net cash position of around $60m by June 2025.
This sale suggests to the broker the REIT no longer requires a debt facility, thereby allowing management to close the hedge book, which is currently in the money with a net present value of circa $2.1m.
The broker's Buy rating is maintained and the target price increases to $1.55 from $1.47. It's felt the share price is attractive given potential for further near-term divestments at around book value.
This report was published on April 19, 2024.
Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.25
If AOF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.14.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BGL BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED
Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $1.81
Canaccord Genuity rates ((BGL)) as Speculative Buy (1) -
Canaccord Genuity highlights ASX-listed gold equities continue to trade at material discounts to their all-time highs, despite all-time high gold prices. These equities are expected to outperform and close the gap to the rising gold price.
Since January, silver has jumped by 21% (versus the 16% rise for the US dollar gold price), but is still some -40% off its April 2011 all-time high of just below US$50/oz, notes the broker.
Canaccord raises its near-term US gold price estimates (2024-26) by an average of 8.3%, and from 2028 by 10.3% to US$2,582/oz. The long-term US silver price forecast is increased by 8.8%, with near-term estimates raised by an average of 7%.
For senior and junior producers under the broker's coverage, target prices rise on average by 12% and 11%, respectively. Across developers/explorers the targets have increase by 11% on average.
The Speculative Buy rating is maintained for producer Bellevue Gold and the target price climbs to $2.25 from $2.00.
This report was published on April 18, 2024.
Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.44
If BGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED
Banks - Overnight Price: $6.10
Jarden rates ((BOQ)) as Overweight (2) -
Bank of Queensland's 1H profit was better than Jarden anticipated on incrementally less headwinds, though the outcome was driven partly by lower bad debts, temporary margin tailwinds and slower expensing of investment spend.
The 1H net interest margin (NIM) of 1.55% beat forecasts by the broker and consensus for 1.51% and 1.53%, respectively, while the cash profit of $172m exceeded the estimated $160m.
While heading for a multi-year recovery, the analysts suggest a material step-change in the bank's profit/return on equity (ROE) profile still seems elusive.
The target rises to $5.80 from $5.70. Overweight retained.
This report was published on April 18, 2024.
Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.26.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.3, implying annual growth of 137.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.26.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.5, implying annual growth of 2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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