Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 27, 2024

This story features ALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALQ   ARX   CIP   DDR   DUR   GTK   IPX   MHJ   NDO (3)   NHC   OFX (2)   PBH   PLT   RHC   RIC   TLS   TLX   TNE (2)   TPG  

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $14.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALQ)) as Buy (1) –

Following a review of in-line FY24 results by ALS Ltd, Goldman Sachs, suggests minerals margins are exhibiting resilience through the cycle, and the cycle may be turning.

Within the Life Sciences division, Environmental was steady, while recoveries for Food and Pharma are yet to play out, observe the analysts

Goldman Sachs raises its FY25-27 earnings (EBIT) forecasts by 5%, 7% and 8%, respectively, to partly reflect improvements in the
Pharmaceutical and Food businesses and stronger conviction around Mineral’s margin resilience.

Buy. Target rises by $2.00 to $15.60.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $14.02 Difference: $1.58
If ALQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting downside of -4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.4, implying annual growth of 2386.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.6, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.49

Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery reported in-line FY24 results, with Wilsons not anticipating much for this earnings report. Management offered guidance which also met expectations, with potential upside from conservative forex assumptions.

The analyst remains upbeat on the clinical readouts for MYRIAD and SYMPHONY this year.

Wilsons highlights the importance of demonstrating profitability and commercialising new products to drive fundamental valuation.

Overweight rating and $1 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.51
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 264.86.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.90.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.18

Moelis rates ((CIP)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis analysts maintain their Buy rating for Centuria Industrial REIT with an unchanged price target of $3.71 as the REIT's Q3 update revealed positive momentum, with leasing spreads up 50% year-to-date and portfolio occupancy stable at 97.2%.

Centuria Industrial REIT leased approximately 45,739sqm across eight transactions during the period, reflecting strong demand, the broker suggests.

The acquisition of a small asset for -$11.5m and the divestment of another for $21.6m were in line with book value. FY24 FFO and DPU guidances remain reaffirmed.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.53
If CIP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $9.10

Jarden rates ((DDR)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden analysts upgrade Dicker Data to Buy from Overweight, reducing the price target to $11.38 from $12.61.

Despite the company releasing a tough 1H market update, the analysts note Dicker Data's market position has strengthened, increasing its reseller network by 21% y/y and adding vendors like Adobe and NetApp.

The company reported a 1Q24 gross revenue decline of -9.6% y/y but achieved an EBITDA margin of 4.8%, the highest in eight quarters.

The FY24 net profit forecast has been lowered by -9%, with FY25 and FY26 also seeing reductions of -10% and -11%, respectively. Earnings and margin forecasts have been adjusted downward.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $11.38 Current Price is $9.10 Difference: $2.28
If DDR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.45, suggesting upside of 14.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 47.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of 0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 52.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.7, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUR    DURATEC LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $1.10

Moelis rates ((DUR)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis has retained its Buy rating for Duratec while reducing its price target to $1.50 from $1.62 following the issuance of narrowed FY24 guidance.

The company now expects revenue of $550-565m and EBITDA of $46-48m, revised from $570-610m and $45-52m, respectively.

The broker explains revised guidance reflects improved EBITDA profitability at an 8.4% margin, with strong project performance noted in 2H24 to date.

The broker observes the order book remains broadly stable at $377m, while the tender book has grown significantly to $1.47bn. Delays in project awards are expected to push some revenues to FY25. Forecasts for FY24-FY26 have been lowered.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.395
If DUR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.52.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $9.00

Jarden rates ((GTK)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden has maintained its Underweight rating for Gentrack Group but increased its price target to NZ$7.00 from NZ$5.00 following a "strong" 1H24 result.

Underlying revenue increased by 58% y/y to NZ$102m, the broker highlights, leading to an upgrade of FY24 revenue guidance by 18% to approximately NZ$200m.

Gentrack Group has narrowed its FY24 EBITDA margin guidance to 12-13%, reflecting increased investment in strategic R&D and international market expansion.

EPS forecasts for FY24-26 have been revised upwards by 4.4%, 19.8%, and 16.9%, respectively. The broker suggests continued revenue growth and positive outlook support upgraded revenue guidance, although the market remains competitive.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Current Price is $9.00. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 82.52.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.47.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $2.16

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPX)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Speculative Buy rating retained for IperionX with an unchanged price target of $3.60. Canaccord Genuity notes the company's recent equity raise of US$33m supports its Phase 1 capex and working capital requirements.

A site visit has increased confidence in the technical and operational parameters of the HAMR process, which is expected to commence production in the final quarter of the year.

Revenue and cost forecasts for 2024 have been slightly revised, with the FY24 net income forecast improved to -US$5.7m from -US$5.8m. The results matched expectations, and the broker believes the outlook remains positive with significant potential for scale-up and valuation upside.

This report was published on May 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $1.44
If IPX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 72.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 108.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ    MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury – Overnight Price: $0.47

Jarden rates ((MHJ)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden analysts maintain their Overweight rating for Michael Hill International but reduce the price target to NZ$0.72 from NZ$1.05 as the jeweler faces a challenging retail environment.

As per the broker, group sales for the first 45 weeks of FY24 are up 4.7% y/y, but core Michael Hill brand sales are estimated to be down around -6%.

According to the latest trading update, New Zealand sales are down -11.1% y/y, and Australia’s core Michael Hill brand sales are also negative.

The broker adds Bevilles has underperformed initial expectations. Canada remains the standout market with sales down slightly by -0.4% y/y. EPS forecasts for FY24-26 have been significantly lowered by -72%, -50.7%, and -33.7%, respectively.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Current Price is $0.47. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.93.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.84.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NDO    NIDO EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.93

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NDO)) as Buy (1) –

Buy rating retained for Nido Education but Canaccord Genuity has reduced its price target to $1.25 from $1.30.

The broker acknowledges operating childcare centres are performing better-than-expected, but new centre developments have been slower due to construction industry challenges.

Updated forecasts for 2024 include revenue of $171m and EBITDA of $26.5m, both slightly lower than previous estimates. Net income for 2024 is now expected to be $17.6m, a slight decrease from prior projections.

EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, reflecting improved centre performance but ongoing delays in new openings. The updated guidance matches the prospectus forecasts, the broker highlights.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.325
If NDO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.14.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((NDO)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis analysts reaffirm their Buy rating with $1.33 price target for Nido Education (was $1.39 in February) following a positive trading update.

It is the analysts' view the core Early School operations performed solidly, offsetting delays from new openings, with 78% spot occupancy as of 12 May 2024, expected to peak at 89% in November.

The guidance for 2024 has been updated to $165.4m in revenue and $35.4m in AEBITDA, reflecting a 3% and 6% upgrade, respectively.

The rescheduling of 13 Early School openings to 2025 does not materially impact future acquisitions, according to management. Forecasts remain largely unchanged.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.405
If NDO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.39.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NDO)) as Overweight (1) –

Nido Education reported a FY24 trading update with stronger-than-expected performance in core centre operations, with occupancy and average daily rates exceeding forecasts, assesses Wilsons.

However, delays in new centre openings have reduced establishment fee revenue by -$3.3m, notes the analyst. Despite these delays, management is confident these centres will open in 2025.

The broker revises down FY24 EBITDA estimate by -9% and lifts FY25 EBITDA by 5%. The target price is lowered to $1.27 from $1.47. Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.27 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.345
If NDO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.74.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $4.98

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs analysts maintain their Sell rating for New Hope Corp and increase the price target to $3.60 from $3.50 as the company reported a strong 3Q FY24 performance, with total saleable coal production and sales of 2.5Mt and 2.4Mt, respectively, up 21% QoQ.

EBITDA for the quarter was $219m, broadly in line with the broker's forecast. Realised thermal coal pricing was $180/t, an -11% discount to the Newcastle benchmark.

Forecasts for FY24 EBITDA remain unchanged, while EPS forecasts for FY24-26 have been adjusted, with FY24 rising by 5% and FY25-26 lowered by -1% and -2%, respectively.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: minus $1.38 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of -51.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX    OFX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $2.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OFX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity analysts maintain the Buy rating for OFX Group with an increased price target to $2.60 from $2.20 following the company's FY24 results release.

As per the broker, OFX reported net operating income growth of 5% to $224m, with adjusted EBITDA beating expectations at $61m, reflecting improved margins and operational efficiencies.

Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised upwards by 2.8%, 2.4%, and 1.9%, respectively, with EPS forecasts lifted by 18.6% for 2024, 8.3% for 2025, and 3.9% for 2026.

Canaccord Genuity believes the company’s outlook remains positive, supported by strong performance, higher gross and net win margins, and significant potential for scale-up and valuation upside.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.58
If OFX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.63.

Forecast for FY26:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((OFX)) as Overweight (1) –

The 2H24 results from OFX Group revealed EPS coming in 2% better than Wilsons ' expectations, with the broker suggesting this shows resilience of management in the face of macro headwinds and further synergies from Firma,

The outlook was upgraded with FY25 forecast to grow by over 10% at the EBITDA level and maintain the growth rate for the next few years, notes the analyst.

Upside risks to forecasts are related to election related currency volatility in US, Australia, UK and Canada over the next 12-months and the start of a rate cutting cycle, suggests the broker.

Wilsons lift EPS estimates between 9% to 26% for FY25 through to FY27 including a renewed buyback which equates to 2bps of FY25 EPS accretion or 9%.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target price revised up to $2.60.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.58
If OFX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.31.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.52

Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden analysts maintain their Overweight rating for PointsBet Holdings while lowering the broker's price target to $0.85 from $1.15 following the company's third FY24 EBITDA guidance upgrade.

PointsBet now expects a lower normalised FY24 EBITDA loss in the range of -$4m to -$6m, improved from -$9m to -$14m.

The broker believes the upgrade is driven by a better-than-expected Australian performance, with growing turnover and higher gross and net win margins.

EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised, with 2024 improved to -9.1c from -10.7c, 2025 raised to 4.2c from 1.7c, and 2026 increased to 7.6c from 5.7c. The revised forecasts reflect a positive outlook amid strong execution and market share gains, Jarden suggests.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.33
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.71.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.38.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLT    PLENTI GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.75

Wilsons rates ((PLT)) as Overweight (1) –

Plenti Group pre-released its 4Q24 trading update with Wilsons noting net profit rising 36% year-on-year and the loan book expanding 21% over the same period.

The company has met its FY24 guidance and offered new FY25 targets of ongoing operating leverage with the cost/income ratio below 24%, better than the analyst's expectation.

Longer term, the company aims to expand the loan book to $3bn compared to Wilsons' forecast of $2.9bn in FY27.

Rating and target under review.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.45
If PLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $48.67

Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden analysts maintain their Neutral rating for Ramsay Health Care with an unchanged price target of $64.30.

As per the broker, the French private hospital sector, including Ramsay Sante, faces significant funding challenges, with indexation set at 0.3% compared to 4.3% for the public sector, prompting a strike from 3-5 June.

The strike aims to secure EUR500m in funding and a multi-year agreement to match public sector indexation.

Despite the challenges in France, the UK operations remain a highlight for the private hospitals operator. EPS forecasts for FY24-FY26 are unchanged, with expectations of 147.4c, 223.2c, and 275.4c, respectively.

Forecasts for Australian and French operations remain under pressure due to inflation and digital investments, the broker highlights.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $64.30 Current Price is $48.67 Difference: $15.63
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.60, suggesting upside of 20.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 147.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.4, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 223.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.3, implying annual growth of 57.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC    RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.05

Wilsons rates ((RIC)) as Overweight (1) –

The trading update from Ridley Corp showed EBITDA growth in Bulk Stockfeeds can offset lower earnings in Packaged & Ingredients, according to Wilsons

The broker anticipates strong growth in dairy market share and poultry feed demand constraints over the 2H24 with no opportunities from supplementary feeding in the 2H24 due to dry conditions.

Lower tallow and meal prices continue to impact ingredient recovery, although supplier volumes are increasing, notes the analyst.

Overweight rating and $2.85 target are under review.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.8
If RIC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Via a trading update, Telstra Group re-affirmed FY24 guidance, and provided FY25 EBITDA guidance of $8.4-8.7bn, which compares to Goldman Sachs' $8.61bn forecast, which is now lowered to $8.56bn.

Management also announced -2,800 job reductions (-377 in the challenged Enterprise business) and the removal of its CPI price
increase structure in postpaid mobile.

The telco announced there would be no raise in pricing on July 1 and was non-specific on whether it would raise pricing later in FY25, the broker observes.

Buy rating maintained. The target falls to $4.25 from $4.55 to reflect the revised mobile outlook and broader restructure.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.8
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $15.47

Jarden rates ((TLX)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has maintained its Buy rating for Telix Pharmaceuticals while increasing its price target to $13.94 from $13.52 following better-than-expected 1Q24 results.

The company’s gross margin at 65.9% exceeded forecasts, up from 63.9% in 2H23, driving upgrades in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 by 2.8%, 2.4%, and 1.9%, respectively.

EPS forecasts have been raised by 18.6% for 2024, 8.3% for 2025, and 3.9% for 2026.

The broker highlights the company's US IPO filing is expected to fund further R&D and SG&A activities, with key catalysts in 2024 including EU and FDA approval decisions for Illucix and TLX-250 CDx.

The company's outlook remains positive amid ongoing product momentum and market opportunities, Jarden suggests.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $13.94 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If TLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 77.74.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.39.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $17.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((TNE)) as Buy (1) –

Following a "solid" 1H by TechnologyOne and a positive surprise for FY24 guidance, Goldman Sachs is incrementally more confident in sustainable annual recurring revenue ((ARR)) growth of more than 15%.

Given this strong ARR growth outlook of 15-20% year-on-year, the company's earnings profile is strong, visible and achievable, in the broker's opinion.

The analysts note TechnologyOne's UK business appears be growing strongly, and forecast 35% ARR growth in the UK in FY24 year-on-year.

Buy rating reiterated. Target price rises to $18.85 from $18.30.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $18.85 Current Price is $17.78 Difference: $1.07
If TNE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.11, suggesting downside of -3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((TNE)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons was impressed by the "solid" 1H24 earnings from TechnologyOne, pointing to the lack of contribution from the transition of the company's legacy on premise customers to the SaaS subscription model, referred to as "flips".

The company grew annual recurring revenue (ARR) by 21% with total revenue growth of 16% and profit before tax growth of 17%, with the broker highlighting an improvement in the quality of revenue from the transition to the subscription model.

TechnologyOne remains debt-free with net cash of $172m and the analyst considers there are growth opportunities via acquisition in the UK, as well as increased market share gains in key segments. 

Wilsons makes minor adjustments to EPS forecasts and retains a positive view on the outlook for the company, including a strong  medium-term outlook for the SaaS and recurring revenue business.

Overweight rating retained, the target is raised by 6% to $19.31.

This report was published on May 27, 2024.

Target price is $19.31 Current Price is $17.78 Difference: $1.53
If TNE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.11, suggesting downside of -3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 35.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 41.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.60

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs lowers its target for TPG Telecom by -9% to $4.90 after taking into account Telstra Group's ((TLS)) recent trading update, which revealed a price increase deferral.

Management at Telstra announced there would be no raise in pricing on July 1 and was non-specific on whether it would raise pricing later in FY25.

The Neutral rating is maintained.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.3
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting upside of 14.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of 407.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 33.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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