Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 28, 2024

This story features AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIA

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIA   ALQ   APE (2)   ARL   DMP   JHX   MAQ   MAY   PLT   RIC   SHL   SKC   TLS   VVA   WEB  

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.12

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden highlights the ComCom regulatory draft review on Auckland International Airport pricing is due late May and is expected to be favourable and pose less risk to the company's pricing.

The broker also estimates a potential -3% to -5% reduction in pricing across FY25-FY27 would only have a -3.5% impact on EPS.

Auckland International Airport's capital expenditure (capex) plan of NZ$5bn is based on the PSE4 pricing and Jarden notes the regulator did not express concerns around the PSE3 pricing when there was a notable increase in capex, although covid stymied the plans.

No changes have been made to financial forecasts.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target price adjusts to NZ$8.58 from NZ$8.44.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Current Price is $7.12. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.48 cents and EPS of 17.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.03 cents and EPS of 18.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 13.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ    ALS LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $14.22

Jarden rates ((ALQ)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

ALS Ltd reported earnings for FY24 in line with management's guidance range. 

Jarden comments strength in the Geochemistry business was a highlight and the outlook for Life Sciences is promising, driven by stronger organic growth and recent acquisitions, though the Nuvisan turnaround remains a challenge, notes the broker.

Earnings forecasts are raised by 4% for FY25 and a compound average growth rate in EPS between FY24 and FY27 of 9.6% is anticipated.

The rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy. Target lifted to $14.90 from $13.70.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $14.22 Difference: $0.68
If ALQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting downside of -4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 39.20 cents and EPS of 68.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.4, implying annual growth of 2386.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.50 cents and EPS of 75.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.6, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.52

Moelis rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis analysts found Eagers Automotive's 1H24 guidance weaker-than-expected. The broker has maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $12.41 from $14.50.

The analysts noted strong group revenue growth of 18.3% YTD April, driven by improved new car supply, strong used car sales, and recent acquisitions.

However, the broker highlighted challenges including excess BYD inventory and significantly increased interest costs. Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with forecast EPS for 2024 revised to 100.1c from 110.3c, and 2025 revised to 91.8c from 108.3c.

This report was published on May 23, 2024.

Target price is $12.41 Current Price is $10.52 Difference: $1.89
If APE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 21.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.50 cents and EPS of 100.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.3, implying annual growth of -9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.70 cents and EPS of 91.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.4, implying annual growth of -14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((APE)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons analysts have dimmed their outlook for Eagers Automotive, reflecting a "surprisingly negative" trading update at the company's AGM.

The broker has maintained a Market Weight rating but lowered its price target to $10.47 from $13.71. Despite strong YTD sales growth of 18.3%, 1H24 pre-tax profit is expected to be around $182m, down -15% from last year.

The broker highlighted challenges including excess inventory and higher costs, though a recovery is anticipated in 2H24. Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with the net profit forecast for FY24 lowered to $248.9m from $291.9m, and DPS lowered to 66c from 78c.

This report was published on May 23, 2024.

Target price is $10.47 Current Price is $10.52 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting upside of 21.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 96.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.3, implying annual growth of -9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 68.90 cents and EPS of 101.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.4, implying annual growth of -14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARL    ARDEA RESOURCES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.61

Petra Capital rates ((ARL)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses Ardea Resources as offering exposure to Australia's largest nickel resource in the top 10 globally.

The KNP-Goongarrie Hub, part of its JV with Sumitomo Metal Mining and Mitsubishi Corporation, places the company in a strong strategic position, notes the analyst.

Notably the ESG credentials of Ardea Resources via the project's expected life-of-mine CO2 footprint of 11.9t CO2 equivalent per tonne nickel is highlighted as particularly strong.

The Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) is underway and fully funded at $98.5m. The broker's financial forecasts remain unchanged.

Buy rating and $1.12 target price maintained.

This report was published on May 23, 2024.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.51
If ARL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.25.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.21.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $37.01

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses the quick service restaurant trends ahead of the Domino's Pizza Enterprises European strategy day.

The broker highlights positive momentum in Australia and New Zealand, alongside Germany, with it's operations benefitting from a VAT change.

France has improved and Japan remains challenging with weaker customer growth and more promotional activity, notes the broker.

No changes to earnings forecasts, but the analyst does point to some risk to the broker's above average FY25 forecasts.

Overweight rating and $48 target remain.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: $10.99
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $49.92, suggesting upside of 31.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.5, implying annual growth of 198.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 179.00 cents and EPS of 178.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of 31.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $47.41

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Jarden attributes the -15% decline in the James Hardie Industries share price post the 4Q24 earnings as a result of management's conservative FY25 guidance. The 4Q24 results were only a slight miss against consensus estimates, notes the analyst.

Management expects adjusted net income between US$630-US$700m for FY25, implying high single to low double-digit earnings downgrades, notes the broker.

Despite flat volume outlooks and cost headwinds, the company is expected to maintain a circa 30% EBIT margin, supported by higher average selling prices and pro-active cost reductions.

Jarden adjusts earnings forecasts lower. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target price declines to $54 from $57.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $47.41 Difference: $6.59
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.48, suggesting upside of 16.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 248.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 287.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 284.5, implying annual growth of 19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAQ    MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $85.31

Petra Capital rates ((MAQ)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

The strong share price appreciation of Macquarie Technology has resulted in a downgrade in the rating by the Petra Capital analyst.

The broker emphasises the longer term appeal and fundamentals of the company, but the appreciation has happened at a faster rate than the analyst expected.

The company also completed a dilutive capital raise for the next phase of the development of IC3SW (data centre) which is due for completion in the 3Q of 2026, with no obvious change in the earnings outlook over that period, according to Petra Capital.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target raised to $90.37 from $82.16, on a higher valuation.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $90.27 Current Price is $85.31 Difference: $4.96
If MAQ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 128.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.39.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 150.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.72.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAY    MELBANA ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.05

Petra Capital rates ((MAY)) as Buy (1) –

Melbana Energy announced an 8-10 week delay for the Marti and Alameda reservoirs caused by challenging drilling conditions and equipment issues.

Petra Capital highliights the Alameda structure in Cuba is showing promising results with significant natural fractures and well-defined porosity over a 677m interval.

Despite the delays, flow tests for the Marti and Alameda reservoirs are expected shortly after reaching Total Depth in 2-3 weeks, according to management.

Melbana Energy is targetting first oil sales from the Amistad reservoir by late 2024, with the analyst at Petra Capital estimating a later start of early 2025.

Financial forecasts remain unchanged.

Buy rating and lowered price target to 19c from 21c.

This report was published on May 23, 2024.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.139
If MAY meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 273% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLT    PLENTI GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.73

Wilsons rates ((PLT)) as Overweight (1) –

Following the release of FY24 results, Wilsons has maintained an Overweight rating for Plenti Group and raised its price target to $1.30 from $1.20.

Revenue, loan book, and cash net profit of $6.1m were in line with prior guidance. The broker highlighted the cost/income ratio target for FY25 is below 24%, showcasing strong operating leverage.

Forecast cash profit for FY25 has been lifted by 4% to $10m, FY26 is revised up by 11% to $20m. The title above the report says it all: Plenti To Like.

This report was published on May 23, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.568
If PLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.86.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 244.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC    RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.09

Wilsons rates ((RIC)) as Overweight (1) –

In reflection of a mixed trading update, Wilsons has maintained an Overweight rating for Ridley Corp but lowered its price target to $2.58 from $2.85.

Despite some softness in rendering commodity prices and constrained poultry production in Victoria, EBITDA growth in the Bulk Stockfeeds segment is expected to offset lower earnings in the Packaged & Ingredients segment.

The broker remains optimistic about sustainable growth drivers such as asset capacity expansion and product mix premiumisation.

Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with the net profit estimate for FY24 revised down to $41.4m from $43.6m, and EPS to 13.1c from 13.8c.

This report was published on May 23, 2024.

Target price is $2.58 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.49
If RIC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.40.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $24.48

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

Sonic Healthcare revised its FY24 EBITDA guidance down by -5.9% to $1.6bn, attributing the downgrade to inflationary pressures from wages, FX headwinds, while delaying margin improvement to FY25 from 2H24.

Management also issued FY25 EBITDA guidance of $1.7-1.75bn which is  -9% below the consensus estimate, notes Jarden.

The broker downgrades FY24 and  FY25 net profit forecasts by -8.5% and -22.5%, respectively.

Neutral rating unchanged and the target is lowered to $26.19 from $26.88.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $26.19 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: $1.71
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.83, suggesting upside of 21.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 88.30 cents and EPS of 98.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.9, implying annual growth of -28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.50 cents and EPS of 117.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.2, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKC    SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.64

Jarden rates ((SKC)) as Buy (1) –

SkyCity Entertainment  has reached a settlement agreement with Austrac and  the New Zealand  Department of Internal Affiars, resulting in fines of -$67m and -NZ$4.2m, respectively.

Jarden expects the settlements will help clear regulatory overhangs, though further reviews and potential fines are anticipated.

The NZ$2.90 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Current Price is $1.64. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 87.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.53

Jarden rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Telstra Group announced organisational changes and new cost-saving actions, aiming to remove up to -2,800 roles by the end of 2024, targeting -$350m in savings for FY25, notes Jarden.

The broker highlights the decision not to increase postpaid mobile prices by CPI in July is the biggest surprise and results in Jarden reducing its FY24 mobile earnings forecast by around -$170m.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted by -0.6% for FY24 and -10.5% for FY25, with the broker also lowering the expected DPS by -8% in FY25 to 18c.

Buy rating unchanged. Target revised to $4 from $4.40.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.47
If TLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VVA    VIVA LEISURE LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $1.55

Petra Capital rates ((VVA)) as Buy (1) –

Viva Leisure annnounced the successful rollout of Viva Pay across the Plus Fitness franchise network, observes Petra Capital.

The analyst forecasts total processing volume annually to reach approximately $120m and Viva Pay to contribute over $4m in EBITDA and double over the next few years.

Financial forecasts remain unchanged, with expected EPS growth of 26.9% and 28.0% for FY24 and FY25, respectively. The analyst views there remain acquisition opportunities to enhance earnings through operational synergies.

Buy rating and $2.52 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.97
If VVA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $8.78

Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons analysts saw Webjet releasing a strong FY24 result. The broker has maintained an Overweight rating and slightly lowered its price target to $10.04 from $10.13.

Group EBITDA was $188.1m, near the top end of guidance and slightly better than Wilsons' estimate, and so was the net profit.

The broker highlights WebBeds performed particularly well, with bookings and TTV for the first seven weeks of FY25 up circa 35% year-on-year.

Despite TTV being down -5% for WebOTA, EBITDA rose due to higher margin products. Forecast EBITDA for FY25 lifted to $222.9m from $221.0m and net profit to $154.7m from $151.4m.

This report was published on May 23, 2024.

Target price is $10.04 Current Price is $8.78 Difference: $1.26
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.27, suggesting upside of 17.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 118.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 47.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.1, implying annual growth of 18.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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