Weekly Reports | Dec 03 2024
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The uranium spot price market was characterised by bouts of volatility before settling into a trading range over the month of November.
-U308 spot price on a roller coaster ride
-Geo-politics the feature for the month
-Microsoft and GE Vernova finding nuclear solutions
-Australian uranium stocks remain a target for short interests
By Danielle Ecuyer
A mismatch between buyers and sellers
Industry consultants TradeTech recorded twenty-eight U3O8 spot transactions in November, totaling 3.2mlbs. Year-to-date spot U3O8 sales have reached 251 transactions, for a combined volume of 24.9mlbs.
The consultants observed “volatility” as a key characteristic of November, driven by the imbalance between sellers aiming for December delivery sales and a lack of support from buyers. Buyers were noted as having largely met their immediate requirements with “little unspent budget remaining for discretionary purchases before year-end.”
TradeTech’s Mid-Term U3O8 price ended November 30 at US$83/lb, down from US$84/lb on October 31, reflecting market volatility and the aforementioned mismatch.
The Long-Term U3O8 price remained flat at US$82/lb compared to the previous month. TradeTech’s U308 exchange value fell -US$2.75 to US$77.25/lb during November from October 31.
The U3O8 spot price dropped by -US$0.25 to US$77.25/lb on November 28 compared to November 22.
Following Thanksgiving on November 29, several spot market transactions occurred, including one at US$76/lb for December delivery to Orano’s facility in France and another at US$77/lb for delivery to ConverDyn in the US. A further transaction saw a buyer secure 100klbs at US$77.25/lb for delivery to Cameco.
As at November 30, TradeTech highlights 5.2mlbs of U308 equivalent available for sale and 4.2mlbs worth of inquiries to purchase. There’s that mismatch again.
November was characterised by geopolitical uncertainty, with the Russian government announcing restrictions on enriched uranium sales to the US in retaliation to US importation restrictions announced earlier in 2024.
Notably, a shipment failed to leave the Port of St Petersburg for the US due to a lack of documentation and export licence. Expectations are for the cargo to be reloaded onto another vessel for delivery to the US later this year.
Growing geo-poltical tensions around supply have focused the mind of producers including Australia’s Paladin Energy‘s ((PDN)) Chairman who commented at the November AGM,
“With limited investment in new uranium mines, there is a growing supply deficit anticipated to exceed 50 million pounds per annum over the next decade. Diversity of supply is also becoming increasingly important in response to recent geopolitical activities, including the US ban on Russian supplies.”
Solving the problems to ramp up nuclear energy capacity
GE Vernova, as reported by CNBC, is targeting the development of small modular nuclear reactors across the developed world over the next decade. Nicole Holmes, chief commercial officer of GE Hitachi’s nuclear unit, stated, “Affordability has been the real challenge for nuclear through many years. We’re beginning to crack that at this point.”
The company’s BWRX-300 reactor is expected to cost US$2bn-US$4bn compared to US$10bn-US$15bn for larger plants due to fewer components and less steel and concrete.
Designed to generate 300MW of electricity, the reactor can meet the needs of over 200,000 US households. With its smaller size, it offers increased flexibility in location. GE Vernova envisions demand for around 57 small modular reactors in markets such as Canada, the US, the UK, and Europe by 2035.
In other corporate news, Microsoft is reportedly collaborating with Terra Praxis to use generative AI to train models that streamline nuclear regulatory and licensing processes. The AI tool is designed to produce early application drafts in hours or days compared to the years it traditionally took.
Short interests show no fear
In Australia, short interest in uranium stocks place Paladin Energy second with a 14.74% short position, up from 13.71% a month earlier as at November 25.
Boss Energy ((BOE)) ranked third, though its short interest declined to 14.63% from 15.36% a month previously, while Deep Yellow ((DYL)) stood eighth with a 10.34% short interest, up from 9.89% a month previously.
Want to learn more about the uranium industry? Check out the latest report from FNArena.
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/11/29/uranium-unplugged-nuclear-rebirth-meets-geo-politics/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 29/11/2024 | 0.0600 |  20.00% |
$0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 29/11/2024 | 0.1600 | 3.33% |
$0.31 | $0.11 | |||
| AGE | 29/11/2024 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.03 | $0.100 | 150.0% |
|
| AKN | 29/11/2024 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 29/11/2024 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.17 | $0.06 | |||
| BKY | 29/11/2024 | 0.3450 |  – 4.17% |
$0.45 | $0.26 | |||
| BMN | 29/11/2024 | 2.7500 | – 1.45% |
$4.87 | $1.90 | $7.400 | 169.1% |
|
| BOE | 29/11/2024 | 2.7100 | -10.26% |
$6.12 | $2.38 | 18.0 | $4.200 | 55.0% |
| BSN | 29/11/2024 | 0.0200 | -18.18% |
$0.21 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 29/11/2024 | 0.0900 | -18.18% |
$0.13 | $0.06 | |||
| CXO | 29/11/2024 | 0.0900 | – 4.21% |
$0.36 | $0.08 | $0.090 | ||
| CXU | 29/11/2024 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 29/11/2024 | 0.1200 | – 4.17% |
$0.45 | $0.10 | |||
| DYL | 29/11/2024 | 1.2200 | – 5.88% |
$1.83 | $0.91 | -67.8 | $1.900 | 55.7% |
| EL8 | 29/11/2024 | 0.2900 | – 3.23% |
$0.68 | $0.26 | |||
| ERA | 29/11/2024 | 0.0020 | 50.00% |
$0.08 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 29/11/2024 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 29/11/2024 | 0.0030 | -25.00% |
$0.02 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 29/11/2024 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 29/11/2024 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 29/11/2024 | 0.5000 | – 4.17% |
$1.03 | $0.14 | |||
| KOB | 29/11/2024 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| LAM | 29/11/2024 | 0.8450 | – 1.17% |
$1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 29/11/2024 | 0.2400 | – 4.08% |
$0.49 | $0.20 | $0.547 | 127.8% |
|
| MEU | 29/11/2024 | 0.0400 | – 5.00% |
$0.06 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 29/11/2024 | 12.9400 | – 3.51% |
$13.66 | $7.89 | $16.600 | 28.3% |
|
| ORP | 29/11/2024 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 29/11/2024 | 7.5500 | – 8.54% |
$17.98 | $6.83 | 39.2 | $12.325 | 63.2% |
| PEN | 29/11/2024 | 0.0570 | 0.00% | $0.15 | $0.05 | $0.240 | 321.1% |
|
| SLX | 29/11/2024 | 5.7900 | – 4.92% |
$6.74 | $3.16 | $7.200 | 24.4% |
|
| TOE | 29/11/2024 | 0.2500 | 0.00% | $0.70 | $0.01 | |||
| WCN | 29/11/2024 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED