Daily Market Reports | Dec 11 2024
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
BPT (2) COL DVP FFM GQG (2) NWC SHL SLC WOW (2)
BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil - Overnight Price: $1.25
Canaccord Genuity rates ((BPT)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
Canaccord Genuity downgrades Beach Energy to Sell from Hold and reduces its target price to $1.20 from $1.25, citing delays in first production at Waitsia to the June quarter of 2025 and concerns over project execution.
The broker lowers FY25 production guidance to 18.7mnboe, compared to management's guidance range of 17.5-21.5mnboe, and cuts earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10% to $896m.
Concerns remain over abandonment costs for legacy assets such as Kupe and Bass Gas, which could hinder divestment efforts and add risk to FCF aspirations, explains the analyst.
The company is targeting cost and capital reductions, including a -30% headcount reduction by the December quarter of 2024.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.02.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.09.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 25.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) -
And yet another Waitsia delay has been announced by Beach Energy with first gas production now expected for Q2 next year.
Jarden expects the market to remain cautious given there have been a number of delays and operational issues during the ramp up period.
The good news, the broker stipulates, is management has not increased its cost guidance and any further issues emerging should translate into delays by weeks, not months.
Neutral. Target $1.33 (down -2c). Minimal adjustments have been made to forecasts.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.085
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.19.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.92.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 25.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
COL COLES GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco - Overnight Price: $19.01
Goldman Sachs rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) -
Goldman Sachs performs a sensitivity analysis on Coles to assess the impact of a 17-day strike at Woolworths Group ((WOW)) distribution centres.
The broker estimates Coles will benefit incrementally by between $4-27m, representing 0.2%-1.3% of full-year earnings (EBIT), as it captures Woolworths lost sales in key regions.
Coles is expected to gain market share, particularly in Victoria, attributed to its strong regional presence. Goldman Sachs retains a Neutral rating for Coles, maintaining the $18.50 target price and forecasts.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $19.01 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.54, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.06.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.01.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.5, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DVP DEVELOP GLOBAL LIMITED
Industrial Metals - Overnight Price: $2.46
Canaccord Genuity rates ((DVP)) as Speculative Buy (1) -
Canaccord Genuity highlights Develop Global's progress on the Woodlawn project, with documentation completed for a $100m loan facility. Also, a five-year offtake agreement has been secured with Trafigura for 100% of copper, zinc, and lead concentrate production.
The broker notes refurbishment works at Woodlawn are 50% complete, with underground ore production expected in the March quarter of 2025 and first concentrate production anticipated in the September quarter of 2025.
This project is expected to produce 12ktpa of copper and 36ktpa of zinc over a 10-year mine life, with a free cash flow (FCF) generation of $430m within the first three years.
The broker highlights the project's de-risked status, with key infrastructure and ore production preparations in place.
Speculative Buy rating and $4.70 target are retained.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $2.24
If DVP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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