Daily Market Reports | 8:33 AM
This story features CSL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL
SPI futures are suggesting the local bourse is set to open positively on Tuesday morning.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8458.00 | + 24.00 | 0.28% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8482.80 | – 28.60 | – 0.34% |
| S&P500 | 6066.44 | + 40.45 | 0.67% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19714.27 | + 190.87 | 0.98% |
| DJIA | 44470.41 | + 167.01 | 0.38% |
| S&P500 VIX | 15.78 | – 0.76 | – 4.59% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.49 | + 0.01 | 0.13% |
| USD Index | 108.20 | + 0.27 | 0.25% |
| FTSE100 | 8767.80 | + 67.27 | 0.77% |
| DAX30 | 21911.74 | + 124.74 | 0.57% |
By Chris Weston, Head of Research, Pepperstone
Good morning.
Risk markets climb a tariff wall of worry, with new highs seen in the FTSE100, DAX40, FRA40 and EU Stoxx, while we see bullish breakouts playing out in the HK50 and China-H-shares.
The positive flow also supports the ASX200 for an open above 8500 and a potential re-test in the days ahead of the all-time high of 8566 set on 31 January.
We’re seeing positive flows in the S&P500 (+0.7%) and NAS100 (+1.2%), with both indices closing near session highs even if breadth wasn’t too flash, with 57% of S&P500 stocks higher on the day.
Taking a big picture view, the S&P500 and Dow daily charts highlight choppy underlying conditions, and both need work to get the momentum accounts fired up.
It’s the NAS100 which appears to be the preferred long play in the near-term, with a test of the range highs of 22k the clear target for the bulls.
The Trump tariff news flow remains deafening and will continue to be so through the week as the reciprocal tariff rates are released either later today or Wednesday.
However, with the 25% tariff announcement on steel and Aluminum lacking any trigger for broad portfolio derisking and USD strength, the ability of risky markets to absorb the news and maintain a steady bid is telling.
Tariff Risk is So Readily Absorbed
We’ve been talking tariff risk for months now, and the markets have had time to price a scenario of frayed international relations, margin compression, a hit to earnings and end demand, with tariffs set to raise the price level.
But what is going down just isn’t troubling risk and perhaps this is the sign that Trump is playing the negotiator, we’ve priced in a more troubled scenario or maybe we’re just over it and keen to refocus on the other factors supporting risk.
Simplistically, any market at or near all-time highs portrays a bullish environment how can it not be?
Naturally, the bulls would like to see a firm breakout to new highs on a higher rate of change and increased participation, but that may still play out with the 12.4% aggregate EPS growth seen from S&P500 companies (in the current quarter) underpinning the buying flows.
We look ahead towards Nvidia’s Q425 earnings (26/2) and while still two weeks away, traders are running NVDA longs into the numbers, with shares now eyeing a break of the 50- & 100-day MA, with traders not wanting to get left behind when they beat expectations the question is always to what extent that beat looks like.
Reduced Volatility Supporting Equity Appreciation
A calm session in US rates and Treasuries -with limited changes in both US nominal and real yields– would also be helping risk sentiment and equity appreciation and that is spilling over into calmer conditions in the USD, with moves across G10 FX orderly on the day.
Extremely low correlation within US equities is another factor playing into a stock pickers market and the frequent rotation.
It is also reducing S&P500 realised volatility, which, in turn, is seeing new capital from volatility-targeting funds (mostly pension and insurance players) come back into the market.
One could argue that the US economic data flow is also a factor, where we’re seeing the data roll in neither too hot nor cool enough to trouble risk.
It feels as though tomorrow’s US CPI print would need to be a real outlier to get the markets really pumping.
Commodities Working Well – Gold into US$2911
Commodities are also feeding the beast, with a solid rally in energy, with crude +2.1% and Nat Gas +4.2%, while copper is +2.6%.
Gold continues to kick with spot trading +1.6% and into US$2911 with US-listed gold miners having a solid day’s trade.
Momentum buying remains a factor, notably in the futures market, although one suspects CTAs would now be max long in their positioning.
Many are fully aware of the buying from EM central banks, and while China hasn’t amassed the quantities of others (such as Poland or Turkey) they are a big psychological driver
Additional news that China is eyeing a program to allow insurers to look at gold as an investible market is also fueling the buying.
Of course, gold players continue to watch and react to the migration of physical gold to Comex vaults in the US, and the ongoing scramble in London to be able to deliver anything that even looks remotely shiny.
Gold and silver may be grossly overbought, but shorting the metal is a tough call for anything more than an intraday trade.
Gold is hot and until we hear some that radically changes the flow dynamics to Comex or improved wait times to receive gold from the Bank of England, then pullbacks should be well supported.
A Look Ahead – ASX200 Earnings and Powell in Focus
Turning to Asia we see our calls for the equity cash markets higher, but only modestly so.
We see the ASX200 opening above 8500, with Macquarie set to offer a Q325 update and CSL ((CSL)) set to report 1H25 earnings before the opening bell.
Typically, CSL receives good attention from traders, but they will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat from its results to see investor interest lift, with shares at 12-month lows.
Trump will make two media appearances through early Asia trade; on Fox and the Matt Levin show.
Data due out through Asia shouldn’t trouble risk too intently, while in the US we see NFIB small business optimism survey and some interest in Fed chair Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee (02:00 AEDT).
In the UK we hear from BoE member Catherine Mann, who many will recall advocated for a 50bp cut in the recent BoE meeting, so one can expect dovish comments in this speech.
On the calendar today:
-Australia Jan NAB business survey
-Japan Public Holiday
-BRG Group ((BRG)) earnings report
-Computershare ((CPU)) 1H25 earnings report
-Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT ((CQE)) earnings report
-CSL ((CSL)) earnings report
-Macquarie Group ((MQG)) Quarter report
-Region Group ((RGN)) earnings report
-SGH Ltd ((SGH)) earnings report
-Vulcan Steel ((VSL)) earnings report
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
Corporate news in Australia:
– New allegations have emerged against WiseTech Global ((WTC)) founder Richard White
– Oxford Properties has joined Charter Hall ((CHC)) and Scape in bidding for $3bn aged care and retirement village operator Aveo
– Ingenia and Lifestyle deny merger talks
– Senate has passed the Labor government’s $13.7bn hydrogen and minerals tax breaks
– French President Emmanuel Macron has announced EUR109bn AI investment ahead of Paris AI summit
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 2934.44 | + 46.84 | 1.62% |
| Silver (oz) | 32.49 | + 0.05 | 0.14% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.70 | + 0.11 | 2.44% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.20 | + 0.01 | 1.10% |
| Nickel (lb) | 7.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.28 | + 0.00 | 0.04% |
| West Texas Crude | 72.46 | + 3.31 | 4.79% |
| Brent Crude | 76.02 | + 1.36 | 1.82% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 106.97 | + 0.60 | 0.56% |
By Paul Williams, managing director at Solomon Global
Gold has seen a 46% rise within 12 months as investors seek safe-haven assets amid ongoing economic and geopolitical instability and fallout from Trump’s trade tariffs.
With the gold price surging to US$2909.20 per troy ounce on February 10th, 2025 –its highest level in history– the psychologically significant US$3,000 milestone now appears within striking distance.
Solomon Global (https://solomon-global.com/), a specialist supplier of LBMA-approved gold and silver bars and coins, says that in the face of persistent global uncertainty, investors have flocked to gold as a reliable store of value, reminiscent of the initial flight to safety witnessed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Here the bullion dealer explores the key factors propelling gold’s historic bull run and what could push the barbarous relic into unchartered territory.
Whilst being buoyed by traditional price catalysts such as economic problems, inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions, gold is simultaneously defying one of its historical inhibitors.
Usually inversely correlated to the U.S. dollar, gold has appeared resistant to a relatively strong dollar suggesting a global paradigm shift and highlighting gold’s ability to perform in a broader set of conditions.
Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are accumulating gold reserves to hedge against currency depreciation and economic turbulence.
The World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends: Full Year 2024 (published February 5th, 2025) highlighted that gold demand hit a new record in 2024 and that central banks continued to hoover up gold at an eye-watering pace.’
Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs -including his latest announced incoming tariffs on imports of aluminium and steel– are exacerbating fears of a global trade war, re-igniting inflation concerns, and causing economic jitters across the board, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.
Additionally, mounting government debt, supply chain disruptions, and weakening consumer confidence are weighing on global markets.
Concerns over a potential global recession and corporate earnings slowdowns are amplifying uncertainty, driving investors toward gold as a hedge against economic turbulence.
The US President didn’t resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict within 24 hours of returning to the White House, and the Kremlin is reported to dispute Trump’s claim that current peace talks are progressing.
With Ukraine escalating its attacks inside Russia’s Kursk region, the situation remains complex and unpredictable.
The current surge in gold prices and demand underscores the profound uncertainty gripping individual investors and global markets. This doesn’t look like a short-lived rally it’s a response to entrenched geopolitical tensions, economic fragility, and shifting global power dynamics.
As volatility escalates, gold remains the ultimate hedge, offering stability in an increasingly unpredictable world.
Considering these factors, the US$3,000 milestone looks feasible in the next few weeks, and if gold was to make the same gains as it has over the last 12 months, we’re looking at US$4250 this time next year.
As geopolitical tensions remain high and macroeconomic risks continue to mount, Solomon Global anticipates that gold’s bullish momentum will persist.
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 10 Feb 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Feb) | Quarter To Date (Jan-Mar) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8482.80 | -0.34% | -0.58% | 3.97% | 3.97% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| BPT | Beach Energy | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett | ||
| BWP | BWP Trust | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| DMP | Domino’s Pizza Enterprises | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
| INA | Ingenia Communities | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| MMS | McMillan Shakespeare | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| NCK | Nick Scali | Downgrade to Sell from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| NWS | News Corp | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| PTM | Platinum Asset Management | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Bell Potter |
| SCG | Scentre Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| WES | Wesfarmers | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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