VULCAN STEEL LIMITED (VSL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

15/10/2025

3

Neutral

$7.00

-3.18%

UBS warns New Zealand building materials conditions may worsen before improving. Valuing cyclicals is difficult at this point in the cycle, notes the broker, with near-term earnings risk offset by a better medium-term outlook.

Volumes for 1Q26 have weakened further, driven by a soft Auckland housing market, a lull in major infrastructure work, and margin pressure across Distribution, Concrete and Insulation, caution the analysts. A material recovery is not anticipated until 2027.

For Vulcan Steel, the broker has left its FY26 forecasts unchanged, assuming no organic growth in New Zealand and modest earnings improvement in Australia.

Earnings growth in FY26 is expected to be driven primarily by acquisitions. Unchanged Neutral rating and $7.00 target.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.72 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.35 cents and EPS of 48.16 cents.

15/08/2025

2

Downgrade to Overweight from Buy

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Jarden reviews current New Zealand housing conditions and retains its NZ$7.55 target price for Vulcan Steel, lowering its rating to Overweight from Buy due to reduced upside.

The broker notes New Zealand’s housing market remains soft, with no recovery expected until 2026, while Australian exposure is not yet delivering benefits.

Vulcan Steel’s FY25 EBITDA guidance of NZ$106-109m is in line with the analysts' forecast, though trading in 2H25 was weaker than expected and recovery is now seen from late FY26.

Jarden prefers Vulcan Steel over Fletcher Building as the earlier cycle recovery trade, citing stronger competitive positioning and greater Australian exposure.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.82 cents and EPS of 9.72 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.27 cents and EPS of 22.17 cents.