VULCAN STEEL LIMITED (VSL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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28/08/2024

3

Neutral

$7.00

-5.79%

Vulcan Steel's cost out program helped FY24 EBITDA come in higher than expectations, according to UBS. The broker commends management on doing well on costs considering ongoing sticky inflation. 

Geopgraphically, NZ remains challenged despite rate cuts ahead of expectations with UBS delaying a recovery until 2H25.

Australia evidenced double digit declines in volumes for the first time, the broker states, which could provide both upside or downside risks to FY25 earnings.

The balance sheet remains leveraged above the target, but below the three times covenant which paves the way for M&A opportunities.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price moves to $7 from $7.20. UBS adjusts EPS forecasts bt -2% in FY25 and -7% in FY26.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 28.50 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 56.99 cents.

01/11/2024

3

Neutral

-

-

Post the recent Vulcan Steel first half market update, at which the company indicated that first quarter of FY25 was down -30% on the prior year in earnings terms, Jarden updates its numbers for a softer-than-expected first half, with a softer recovery now anticipated in the second half.

As Jarden broadly retains its FY27 estimates, the reduced cost of capital parameters more than offset the near-term earnings reduction and the broker increases its target price to NZ$8.05 from NZ$7.80.

Due to modest downside potential to target, Jarden retains a Neutral rating.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.06 cents and EPS of 17.83 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.57 cents and EPS of 39.62 cents.