VULCAN STEEL LIMITED (VSL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

25/08/2026

1

Buy

$7.00

30.84%

First take: UBS comments second-half EBITDA of NZ$73m was 2% ahead of consensus, supported by stronger steel volumes and the Roofing Industries acquisition.

Steel volumes increased 35%, marking the company's first year of volume growth since FY22, although profit was below forecasts because of depreciation and interest costs.

Commentary highlights management did not provide quantitative FY27 guidance but indicated New Zealand conditions are stabilising and should improve further during 2027.

Australia remains mixed because of restrictive interest rates and fiscal uncertainty. An October trading update represents the next catalyst, while cyclical demand, steel prices and elevated leverage have been identified as key risks. Buy with a $7 target.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 16.96 cents and EPS of 33.92 cents.

27/08/2026

2

Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral

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Jarden upgraded to Overweight rating for Vulcan Steel with its target price decreased to NZ$7.61 from NZ$7.74 following an FY26 financial result featuring adjusted EBITDA of NZ$130.3m, up NZ$18m on the prior corresponding period.

Operational performance was supported by underlying second-half momentum signalling a clear start to a recovery cycle, though this was partly offset by cost growth exceeding expectations and a softer dividend.

Jarden indicates that the outlook points to an improving New Zealand backdrop alongside Australian headwinds partially offset by structural industry improvements.

The analyst highlights that continued earnings recovery is anticipated as volumes normalise despite visibility being limited by the absence of formal FY27 earnings guidance.