Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 18, 2025

This story features ACUSENSUS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ACE

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An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ACE   ANZ   CAR   CBA   CVN   GDG   JHX   LOT   LTR   NAB (2)   NZK   PSC   PXA   SVR   TLX   TYR   WBC (2)  

ACE    ACUSENSUS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.08

Wilsons rates ((ACE)) as Re-initiate with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons has re-initiated coverage of Acusensus with a $1.23 target price and Overweight rating.

Of the company’s two key offerings, the broker notes, the distracted driving product attracts a higher gross profit margin and the company has the potential to sell one and upsell into another.

The company currently has 50% of the Australian market for distracted driving and the broker expects growth opportunity to mainly come from the UK and the US, with Europe and Middle East also being pursued.

The broker’s forecasts are mainly supported by recent contract wins in WA and Queensland, and NZ nationwide contract for speed cameras.

The target price is based on an FY26 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 19x which is a 100% premium to the average of Acusensus’ global peers.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $1.23 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.145
If ACE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 135.63.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 217.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $28.69

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes for the first time in 2.5 years, CommBank ((CBA)) generated negative organic capital in its 1H25 result, and ANZ’s quarterly update also pointed to the same. 

With a clear pivot to capital-intensive business/corporate lending and phasing out of hybrid capital in January 2027, the broker believes there will be pressure on CET1. This, in turn, would limit dividend payout, with the broker seeing current consensus expectations for dividend payout ratio as too high.

Consensus for ANZ is still manageable at 71%, 72% and 71% forecast for FY25/26/27 respectively and CommBank may also scrape through but National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) may have to adjust lower to high 60s, the broker estimates.

No change to ANZ’s $30.5 target price and Overweight rating.

This report was published on March 14, 2025.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $28.69 Difference: $1.81
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.24, suggesting downside of -2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 235.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.3, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.00 cents and EPS of 240.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.0, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 174.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CAR GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $33.31

Jarden rates ((CAR)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Jarden has lowered the forecast for CAR Group’s 5-year compounded annual revenue growth rate to 9% from 10% to reflect the risks from a soft macro environment, particularly in the US. 

Still, the broker sees downside risks to consensus and its FY26 forecasts.

Target price cut to $33.00 from $34.60. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight after recent sell-off.

This report was published on March 15, 2025.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $33.31 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.63, suggesting upside of 24.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 80.10 cents and EPS of 98.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.7, implying annual growth of 47.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 92.30 cents and EPS of 115.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $144.66

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden notes for the first time in 2.5 years, CommBank generated negative organic capital in its 1H25 result, and ANZ’s ((ANZ)) quarterly update also pointed to the same. 

With a clear pivot to capital-intensive business/corporate lending and phasing out of hybrid capital in January 2027, the broker believes there will be pressure on CET1. This, in turn, would limit dividend payout, with the broker seeing current consensus expectations for dividend payout ratio as too high.

Consensus for CommBank is still manageable at 79%, 79% and 79% forecast for FY25/26/27 respectively and ANZ may also scrape through but National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)) may have to adjust lower to high 60s, the broker estimates.

No change to $110 target price and Sell rating.

This report was published on March 14, 2025.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $144.66 Difference: minus $34.66 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $107.29, suggesting downside of -26.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 480.00 cents and EPS of 607.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 609.9, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 480.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 483.00 cents and EPS of 611.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 629.6, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 495.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN    CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.12

Jarden rates ((CVN)) as Overweight (2) –

Carnarvon Energy announced a potential return of capital to shareholders of up to 7c ($125m) subject to conditions including shareholder approval, ATO class ruling, ASX waivers and no better alternative use of capital.

Jarden notes a lower market cap following this transaction would better reflect the value of the company’s underlying assets and also attract more buyers to the company. 

Target price of 16c and Overweight rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.04
If CVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDG    GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $4.87

Moelis rates ((GDG)) as Re-instate at Buy (1) –

Moelis has re-instated coverage of Generation Development with a Buy rating and target price of $5.92 following the Evidentia acquisition.

The broker estimates EPS accretion from the Evidentia deal to be 10.7% in FY26. The analyst believes this acquisition, together with Lonsec, would further strengthen the group’s market-leading position with combined assets under management of over $25bn. 

The broker notes both deals will generate material cash flows, giving potential for reinvestment to help further growth. The broker expects the combined group to grow its market share to 25% by 2030 from 14% currently.

This report was published on March 16, 2025.

Target price is $5.92 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $1.05
If GDG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 15.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 176.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 43.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $50.38

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Near-term macro risks, including tariff uncertainties, makes Jarden cautious of James Hardie Industries, prompting a downgrade in rating to Neutral from Overweight.

The broker believes pulp cost inflation from higher tariffs is a key operational risk, along with the increasing risk of a US recession. The broker also sees M&A as a risk, noting the company’s deal with Fermacel failed to achieve pre-acquisition forecasts.

The broker has lowered volume growth forecasts and raised input cost estimates, leading to a -2-3% decline in average earnings forecasts.

Target price lowered to $53.50 from $54.00.

This report was published on March 15, 2025.

Target price is $53.50 Current Price is $50.38 Difference: $3.12
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $59.71, suggesting upside of 17.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 228.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 253.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 241.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.0, implying annual growth of 11.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LOT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Lotus Resources signed another offtake agreement for the Kayelekera restart project in Malawi with a large North American power utility for 0.6Mlbs covering the period 2026-29.

The company reiterated the Q32025 timeline for the first production and 2026 for first sales.

Canaccord Genuity notes the price is fixed based on published long-term prices (currently US$80/lb) and offers limited upside potential, given its own long-term price forecast is US$90/lb.

However, the cash margin would still be healthy given the production cost of US$44.8/lb. Target price of 34c and Speculative Buy rating remains.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.165
If LOT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting upside of 186.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.69

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Neutral (3) –

Rather than the 1H25 results, Jarden is focusing on the outlook for Liontown Resources’ Kathleen Valley mine, noting plant availability and overall recoveries continued to rise in the March quarter.

The broker believes early mining rates have been impressive.

The broker made minor changes to the underground ore ramp-up profile and lowered the WACC discount rate to 10.3% from 10.7%. EPS forecast for FY25 was lowered on non-cash forex impacts, and an increase to D&A charges pushed down FY26 EPS forecasts.

Target price rises to 67c from 63c. Neutral maintained.

This report was published on March 14, 2025.

Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 7.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 76.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $33.24

Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes for the first time in 2.5 years, CommBank ((CBA)) generated negative organic capital in its 1H25 result, and ANZ’s ((ANZ)) quarterly update also pointed to the same. 

With a clear pivot to capital-intensive business/corporate lending and phasing out of hybrid capital in January 2027, the broker believes there will be pressure on CET1. This, in turn, would limit dividend payout, with the broker seeing current consensus expectations for dividend payout ratio as too high.

Consensus for NAB may have to adjust down to the high-60s from 75%, 75% and 74% forecast for FY25/26/27 respectively and similarly for Westpac ((WBC)) but CommBank and ANZ may scrape through, the broker estimates.

No change to $38 target price and Overweight rating.

This report was published on March 14, 2025.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $33.24 Difference: $4.76
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.08, suggesting downside of -0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 225.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.4, implying annual growth of -0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 231.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (4) –

Jarden thinks there’s more to it than meets the eye in Nathan Goonan’s resignation as CFO at National Australia Bank to move to the same role at Westpac ((WBC)).  The broker reckons it may be an indication of other pressures at NAB, likely in business banking.

The broker is also suspicious of NAB appointing an acting head of business and private banking given the transition period between the departee and the new joinee on July 1 is only 15 days.

In a previous report, the broker highlighted pressure on banks’ CET1 from capital-intensive business/corporate lending and phasing out of hybrid capital in January 2027. This, in turn, would limit dividend payout, with the broker seeing current consensus expectations for NAB’s dividend payout ratio as too high.

The broker’s believes it may have to adjust down to the high-60s from 75%, 75% and 74% forecast for FY25/26/27 respectively.

In this report, the broker cut FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -2.4% and -2.9% to reflect higher margin erosion and costs, and removed the estimated 1H25 buyback. Target price cut to $30 from $38. 

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Overweight reflecting uncertainties around management change.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $33.24 Difference: minus $3.24 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.08, suggesting downside of -0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 225.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.4, implying annual growth of -0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 231.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NZK    NEW ZEALAND KING SALMON INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Aquaculture – Overnight Price: $0.21

Jarden rates ((NZK)) as Neutral (3) –

New Zealand King Salmon Investments gave guidance for FY26 of 5,900-6,300mt as rising water temperatures in late February and early March led to higher fish mortality rates. This is -12% below Jarden’s forecast.

EBITDA guidance for FY26 is NZ$15-24m, prompting the broker to cut its forecast by -34% to NZ$20m.

The broker notes some uncertainty about funding for the Blue Endeavour investment from the earnings downgrade but hasn’t accounted for this in its forecasts.

Target price of NZ29c and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Current Price is $0.21. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.24.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.47.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSC    PROSPECT RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PSC)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity views the grant of two large-scale mining licences to Prospect Resources that now covers the entire 356sq.m area at its existing Mumbezhi Copper project in Zambia as a significant derisking event.

The broker believes the project could gain additional benefits like capital allowances, royalty structures and VAT under Zambia’s mining tax regime.

Last week the broker flagged the project has the potential to become the largest copper deposit among ASX developers if the updated exploration target is achieved.

No change to 40c target price and Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.3
If PSC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 300% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $11.70

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes the IPART (Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal) will start its review of the eConveyancing pricing regime in July and any changes from the recommendations will likely be implemented in July 2026.

The broker believes Pexa Group’s current pricing would either be judged as reasonable or if lower prices are recommended it would be around -5%. The broker reckons the company will be able to offset revenue decline through cash management.

The broker’s scenario analysis suggests -5% cut would require $18m cost-out.

Target price of $15.55 and Neutral rating maintained.

This report was published on March 16, 2025.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: $3.85
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.35, suggesting upside of 30.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5850.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 202.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.0, implying annual growth of 589.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVR    SOLVAR LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.33

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SVR)) as Buy (1) –

Solvar announced its first asset-backed securitisation for $200m, made up of $60m of own capital from the existing warehouse and $140m from private credit funds, including MA Financial ((MAF)).

The company flagged $2.0m in pre-tax interest cost savings over three years, and Canaccord Genuity acknowledges this but has maintained current forecasts.

Target price of $1.8 and Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.47
If SVR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.01.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.30 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $27.36

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes Telix Pharmaceuticals’ announcement it has developed and completed the first production of lead-212 (212-Pb) as an interesting development. The timing is perfect as the industry questions whether 225-Ac is better for targeted alpha therapy.

The broker highlights a few Pb-related transactions recently, including Sanofi’s EUR300m investment for 16% of Orano Med, and considers Pb to be no lightweight based on its alpha energies.

Target price of $35 and Overweight rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $27.36 Difference: $7.64
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.69.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR    TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.74

Wilsons rates ((TYR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes Tyro Payments has offered to buy 100% of Smartpay ((SMP)) via a combination of its shares and cash. Smartpay has also received an offer from another international company. The broker speculates it is Shift4.

Due diligence has been granted by Smartpay to the two parties, with reciprocal also granted by Tyro to Smartpay. 

The broker believes it will be challenging for the Tyro deal to succeed, including the potential for Smartpay’s shareholder to block the deal.

The broker reckons Tyro may also face challenges from its own shareholders, particularly given the experience from the Bendigo Bank ((BEN)) deal.

The broker also sees the possibility of an additional bidder entering this space. Overweight rating and $1.15 target price.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.405
If TYR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 64.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of -34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $29.89

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Westpac’s first quarter update was solid, Jarden suggests, featuring good volumes, slight margin compression and low bad debts, but weak capital generation. Looking forward, the bank has management change and a material IT transformation project to execute.

Jarden sees UNITE as an overdue but welcome comprehensive rewiring of Westpac architecture, likely involving significant execution risk and internal focus, but also sees risk of project creep, with much higher investment than has previously been indicated. 

Therefore, this result, while operationally pleasing, is in Jarden’s view somewhat redundant. The broker downgrades to Underweight from Neutral on valuation. Target unchanged at $31.20.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $31.20 Current Price is $29.89 Difference: $1.31
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 199.1, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 156.00 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.9, implying annual growth of -0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden notes for the first time in 2.5 years, CommBank ((CBA)) generated negative organic capital in its 1H25 result, and ANZ’s ((ANZ)) quarterly update also pointed to the same. 

With a clear pivot to capital-intensive business/corporate lending and phasing out of hybrid capital in January 2027, the broker believes there will be pressure on CET1. This, in turn, would limit dividend payout, with the broker seeing current consensus expectations for dividend payout ratio as too high.

Consensus for Westpac may have to adjust down to the high-60s from 79%, 78% and 74% forecast for FY25/26/27 respectively and similarly for National Australia Bank ((NAB)) but CommBank and ANZ may scrape through, the broker estimates.

No change to $31.20 target price and Underweight rating.

This report was published on March 14, 2025.

Target price is $31.20 Current Price is $29.89 Difference: $1.31
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 199.1, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 156.00 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.9, implying annual growth of -0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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