Weekly Reports | 10:06 AM
This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE
U308 market remains gripped by uncertainty around tariffs and the potential Russia/Ukraine ceasefire.
-U308, a moribund market with no buyers or sellers
-US Administration supports nuclear renaissance
-Citi remains structurally bullish on uranium
-Short sellers in Australia remain committed
By Danielle Ecuyer
Uncertainty underpins a lack of interest
Thus far, TradeTech’s spot price indicator has declined -17.1% in 2025, pulling price weakness over the past twelve months down to -26.7%. Last week, the consultant’s spot price indicator fell -US$0.25 to US$63/lb.
TradeTech’s mid-term U3O8 price indicator came in at US$71/lb, and the long-term price indicator at US$80/lb.
Uranium markets are currently extremely quiet, with one single transaction reported on Friday for the purchase of 100,000 lbs U3O8 for delivery at Cameco’s Canadian plant. Utilities have stepped away from making long-term purchases as more uncertainty emerges around the tariff and trade policies of the Trump Administration.
Sellers have equally withdrawn from the market, with no guarantees as to which party would be liable for any future tariffs or duties.
There were no transactions reported across the term U3O8, conversion, and enrichment markets.
TradeTech proposes a possible realignment of options for nuclear fuel buyers if the Russia-Ukraine war ends; however, this is viewed as an eventual rather than an immediate possibility.
CERAWeek confirms nuclear energy
The US Administration remains committed to re-industrialising the economy, including advancing the American nuclear renaissance, as described by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright at CERAWeek 2025.
At CERAWeek, Amazon, Google, and Meta re-affirmed their commitment to expanding nuclear energy, signing a pledge to support the tripling of global nuclear capacity by 2050 due to growing energy demand from data centres and AI.
Citi’s Commodity Update and Uranium Price Forecast
Citi’s latest commodity update assigns a 60% probability to a base case U3O8 price of US$77/lb in 2025, down from US$94/lb previously. A potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal could ease trade tensions between Russia and Western countries, reducing risk premia in U3O8 pricing.
The broker expects the current Russian ban to remain but sees scope for the waiver process to be eased, leading to a lower base case price forecast. Citi remains “structurally bullish” on uranium, expecting prices to rise to US$100/lb in 2026 and to US$115/lb in 2027.
US Nuclear Energy Momentum and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
Momentum in the US uranium and nuclear energy markets is unlikely to slow under the Trump Administration. Citi has a positive outlook for the global nuclear energy industry, driven by clean energy demand and the growing power needs of data centres.
Citi’s base case assumes six small modular reactors (SMRs) will be commercialised in the US before 2035, with 23 projects globally. Citi analysis highlights the US lags behind Canada and Russia in SMR commercialisation. Depending on scalability, SMRs could account for 15%-20% of global uranium demand, with potential for further growth.
Outlook on Uranium Mine Output
Mine output is viewed as a key factor influencing uranium prices over the next two to three years. Citi forecasts supply from existing mines to increase by 13mlbs in 2025, mainly from Africa, the US, and Kazakhstan, bringing total annual uranium output to 165mlbs.
Total production from new and existing mines is expected to reach 170mlbs, surpassing the record mine output of 2007 by 3mlbs and reflecting annual growth of 16mlbs year-on-year.
Citi has a Buy rating on Boss Energy ((BOE)), with a target price of $3.60, as well as for Paladin Energy ((PDN)), with a target price of $13.30.
Weekly research updates on uranium companies
Boss Energy increased its shareholding in Laramide Resources ((LAM)), purchasing an additional 9% of issued capital for CA$0.6 per share, totaling $15.5m, bringing its stake to 18.4%.
Laramide also provided an updated mineral resource estimate for Westmoreland, reporting 49.1mlbs at an average U3O8 grade of 770ppm, using a break-even price of US$80/lb. UBS compares this to its long-term U3O8 price estimate of US$77/lb.
UBS views Westmoreland as a high-quality project relative to Paladin’s Langer Heinrich, but notes it falls short of the standards of Canada’s Athabasca Basin. UBS has a Buy rating with a $3.20 target price and concurs with Bell Potter and Morgan Stanley that Queensland’s uranium mining ban remains an obstacle for the project.
The FNArena consensus target price for Boss Energy is $3.979, with six Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold-equivalent rating from Morgan Stanley.
NexGen Energy ((NXG)) announced the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) has scheduled hearings for the Rook project on November 19, 2025, and February 9-13, 2026.
Shaw and Partners previously expected a hearing in 1H 2025. Given the anticipated three-and-a-half-year construction schedule, this analyst now sees production as unlikely before 2030. Shaw reiterates a Buy, High risk rating, with a lower target price of $14.40 from $16.20.
Petra Capital believes its prior 2030 assumption for NexGen’s first production is no longer conservative. The CNSC hearings are later than assumed, requiring approvals by mid-year to meet its original 2028 production timeline. Petra retains a Buy rating but lowers its target price to $14.10 from $14.33.
Canaccord Genuity revised its life-of-mine production forecast after Lotus Resources ((LOT)) updated its scoping study for the Letlhakane uranium project, reducing total production by -32%.
The new profile estimates 28.9mlbs over a 10-year life, compared to 42.3mlbs over a 15-year life prior. The broker left all other forecasts unchanged and continues to expect first production in 1H31. The target price was cut to 34c from 37c, maintaining a Speculative Buy rating.
Canaccord Genuity also updated its outlook on Bannerman Energy ((BMN)), noting the company remains financially flexible with $81.1m in cash and no debt. Bannerman is considered a highly leveraged play on uranium prices.
The company is targeting a final investment decision on the Etango-8 project in 2025, contingent on further strengthening in the uranium market. Canaccord retains a Speculative Buy rating with a $4.08 target price.
Short Interest in Uranium Stocks Remains High
Short interest in ASX-listed uranium stocks continues to rise, with Boss Energy carrying the highest short interest at 22.58% as of March 10, up from 21.02% the prior week.
Paladin Energy has the second-highest short interest at 17.95%, followed by Deep Yellow ((DYL)) at 12.16%. Lotus Resources’ short interest has increased to 7.01% from 6.15%.
For more reading on uranium:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/11/uranium-week-capitulation-near-the-bottom/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/04/uranium-week-lets-wait-see-what-happens/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/02/25/uranium-week-russia-come-back-uncertainty/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 14/03/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 14/03/2025 | 0.1200 |  4.55% |
$0.20 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 14/03/2025 | 0.0300 |  – 7.14% |
$0.07 | $0.03 | $0.100 | 233.3% |
|
| AKN | 14/03/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 14/03/2025 | 0.0500 | – 7.02% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 14/03/2025 | 0.4300 | 10.26% |
$0.45 | $0.27 | |||
| BMN | 14/03/2025 | 2.0300 | – 4.67% |
$4.87 | $1.90 | $7.400 | 264.5% |
|
| BOE | 14/03/2025 | 2.3400 | 4.52% |
$5.99 | $1.99 | 41.3 | $3.979 | 70.0% |
| BSN | 14/03/2025 | 0.0100 | -11.76% |
$0.14 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 14/03/2025 | 0.0400 | -20.00% |
$0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 14/03/2025 | 0.0800 | – 5.00% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | $0.090 | 12.5% |
|
| CXU | 14/03/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 14/03/2025 | 0.0800 | 9.33% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 14/03/2025 | 0.9700 | 3.06% |
$1.83 | $0.91 | -360.0 | $1.810 | 86.6% |
| EL8 | 14/03/2025 | 0.2000 | – 4.76% |
$0.62 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 14/03/2025 | 0.0030 | 50.00% |
$0.06 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 14/03/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 14/03/2025 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 14/03/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 14/03/2025 | 0.0430 | -14.00% |
$0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 14/03/2025 | 0.2700 | -12.50% |
$1.03 | $0.14 | |||
| KOB | 14/03/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.05 | |||
| LAM | 14/03/2025 | 0.7000 | 12.90% |
$1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 14/03/2025 | 0.1700 | 0.00% | $0.49 | $0.16 | $0.488 | 186.8% |
|
| MEU | 14/03/2025 | 0.0500 | 4.55% |
$0.06 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 14/03/2025 | 7.4000 | – 1.55% |
$13.66 | $7.16 | $15.700 | 112.2% |
|
| ORP | 14/03/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 14/03/2025 | 6.5400 | 0.31% |
$17.98 | $5.91 | 153.5 | $11.171 | 70.8% |
| PEN | 14/03/2025 | 0.6300 | – 9.52% |
$2.70 | $0.63 | $4.810 | 663.5% |
|
| SLX | 14/03/2025 | 3.8900 | 0.00% | $6.74 | $3.35 | $6.900 | 77.4% |
|
| TOE | 14/03/2025 | 0.1800 | 5.56% |
$0.52 | $0.17 | |||
| WCN | 14/03/2025 | 0.0200 | – 5.88% |
$0.03 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LAM - LARAMIDE RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED