Daily Market Reports | Apr 11 2025
This story features EBOS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EBO
Fading exuberance gave way to selling overnight as the tariff reality remains. US markets recovered off the lows, but risk-off sentiment won the day. ASX futures are signalling another sharp sell off for Friday.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 7618.00 | – 120.00 | – 1.55% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 7709.60 | + 334.60 | 4.54% |
| S&P500 | 5268.05 | – 188.85 | – 3.46% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 16387.31 | – 737.66 | – 4.31% |
| DJIA | 39593.66 | – 1014.79 | – 2.50% |
| S&P500 VIX | 40.72 | + 7.10 | 21.12% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.39 | – 0.01 | – 0.14% |
| USD Index | 100.71 | – 2.01 | – 1.96% |
| FTSE100 | 7913.25 | + 233.77 | 3.04% |
| DAX30 | 20562.73 | + 891.85 | 4.53% |
Good Morning,
As the expression goes ‘easy-come-easy-go’ which framed US markets overnight, with a risk off tone grabbing traders and sending indices lower.
What happened overnight, extract from NAB Markets Today
Following Wednesday’s biggest one-day rise in the Nasdaq since January 2001, US stocks are back on the skids Thursday albeit closing well off the intra lows.
Wednesday’s announcement of a 90-day moratorium on all the April 2 tariff announcements beyond the 10% baseline rate, excluding on China, and which President Trump intimated could be further extended pending trading negotiations, have done little to alleviate concerns the US economy may be heading into recession.
WTI crude is off more than -3% and the USD is completely unloved, the DXY index suffering intra-day losses of more than -2% before a small recovery, its biggest one-day fall since 10 November 2022.
The main US economic event, CPI, came in softer than expected in March. Headline inflation fell -0.1% month-on-month, its first monthly decline in close to five years, pulling the annual rate down to 2.4%, but more significant the core reading came in a full -0.2% below consensus at 0.1%.
CPI was knocked down by a -5.3% drop in airlines fares on reduced passenger numbers, and -3.5% fall in lodging away from home (accommodation) but the ‘core services ex-housing’ series often referenced by Fed officials fell by -0.24% after 0.22% in February, so essentially unchanged since January. So scant evidence so far of any lift to goods prices from tariffs, but which surely lie not too far ahead.
Locally, RBA’ Governor Bullock’s speech on Women’s Economic Empowerment in Australia and absence of Q&A, meant it was never likely to be enlightening regarding upcoming RBA policy prospects, though the governor’s remarks did include the following:
“We are carefully considering several factors including the response of our trading partners, additional counter-responses from the US, the response of our exchange rate, and adjustments in other financial markets. A key focus for us is how all this uncertainty is affecting decisions made by households and businesses in Australia. All of this together with our usual detailed analytical work and scenarios is helping us build a fuller picture of the possible impacts as we prepare for the next Monetary Policy Board meeting on 19-20 May…We are mindful of not adding to the uncertainty, and to that end, it’s too early for us to determine what the path will be for interest rates. Our focus remains on our dual mandate for price stability and full employment.”
The remarks do nothing to detract from confident expectations there will be a rate cut on May 20, but don’t provide obvious succour to (high) hopes for a -50bps step, as per NAB’s updated RBA call.
US Markets in numbers
At their worst levels, the Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500, and Russell2000 were down -5.4%, -7.2%, -6.3%, and -6.5%, respectively, but they finished the day down -2.5%, -4.3%, -3.5%, and -4.3%, respectively.
Disappointing earnings results came out from CarMax with the shares falling -19.5%.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower. The sole winner was the defensive-oriented consumer staples sector, up 0.2%. The biggest loser was the energy sector, -6.4%, followed by information technology, down -4.6%, consumer discretionary fell -4.1%, communication services down -4.1%, and materials declined by -3.0%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, up 18.7% yesterday, declined -8.0% today. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK), up 12.2% yesterday, declined -4.1% today.
Decliners outpaced advancers by a better than 8-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a better than 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
Year-to-day US Indices Performance:
-Dow Jones Industrial Average: -7.1%
-S&P500: -10.4%
-S&P Midcap 400: -14.0%
-Nasdaq Composite: -15.1%
-Russell 2000: -17.9%
Nigel Green from DeVere’s take on the Trump tariff pivot
A deep, lasting shock to confidence is now embedded in the global system, and investors are beginning to demand larger discounts to buy risk assets, whether bonds, equities, or beyond.
Beneath the current euphoria lies a more stubborn truth. Markets may breathe easier in the short term, but the long-term damage to trust is real.
Policy unpredictability leaves scars. Even when immediate fears ease, the memory of instability forces investors to rethink risk, and reprice it across every market.
The root of the problem isn’t just the tariffs themselves. It’s the violent swings in direction, the sudden reversals, and the whiplash decision-making that leave businesses, households, and financial markets in a constant state of uncertainty.
Trump’s selective tariff pause shows a tactical awareness that pressure was building, but it doesn’t erase the message sent over the past months: stability is no longer a given.
Investors are adjusting accordingly. Valuations are becoming more cautious. Companies that once traded at premium multiples now face harder questions. Bonds that were once seen as ironclad are no longer being priced with the same level of certainty. Safe-haven assumptions are being re-examined at every level.
The immediate risk rally is real, but the broader repricing of risk assets has only just begun.
Every future policy announcement, every negotiation headline, every retaliatory move from global players like China will now be filtered through a lens of skepticism. That lingering doubt raises the risk premium across the board.
Even as stocks rallied on relief, the tensions with China only deepened. Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, while Beijing retaliated by bringing its total tariffs on US imports to more than 100%. These actions make clear that the fundamental fractures remain unresolved.
It’s not just the direct economic hit from tariffs that mattersmit’s the signaling effect. When investors see governments willing to weaponize trade relationships so aggressively, they recalibrate assumptions about future growth, inflation, and financial system stability.
In short, even if tariffs vanish tomorrow, their ghost will linger. The appetite for risk has been dulled. Discount rates are rising. Multiples are compressing. It will take much more than a temporary pause to rebuild the deep foundations of confidence that global markets once took for granted.
The scars of Trump’s economic unpredictability are likely to last a long time.
Corporate news in Australia
-Healthscope is looking to end its involvement with the Northern Beaches Hospital due to debt and operational issues.
-Backed by AustralianSuper, Federation Mining is preparing for an ASX IPO following the acquisition of Siren Gold.
-EBOS Group ((EBO)) is placed into a trading halt for a $250m share placement and retail offer to fund two bolt-on acquisitions.
On the calendar today:
-NZ March Manu PMI
-UK Feb GDP
-US April University of Michigan sentiment
-US March PPI
-AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) AGM
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3189.67 | + 74.98 | 2.41% |
| Silver (oz) | 31.08 | + 0.15 | 0.48% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.39 | – 0.08 | – 1.86% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.07 | + 0.01 | 1.13% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.62 | + 0.35 | 5.61% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.19 | + 0.03 | 2.50% |
| West Texas Crude | 60.26 | – 2.51 | – 4.00% |
| Brent Crude | 63.53 | – 2.17 | – 3.30% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 99.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 10 Apr 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Apr) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 7709.60 | 0.55% | -1.71% | -1.71% | -5.51% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ANN | Ansell | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| DTL | Data#3 | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| DXI | Dexus Industria REIT | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| FMG | Fortescue | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| GDF | Garda Property | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| GMG | Goodman Group | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| HUB | Hub24 | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| IGO | IGO Ltd | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley | ||
| JBH | JB Hi-Fi | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| NIC | Nickel Industries | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| NST | Northern Star Resources | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| TNE | TechnologyOne | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Bell Potter |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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