Weekly Reports | Apr 15 2025
This story features DEEP YELLOW LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL
Uncertainty and volatility continued to weigh on both activity, and prices in the uranium market, despite the announced tariff exemption for the sector.
-Tariff exemption offers Relief but fails to boost spot U308
-Deep Yellow defers Tumas FID as costs and timelines expand
-Boss, Lotus and Paladin navigate production milestones
-Short positions still on the rise
By Danielle Ecuyer
What happened in the week that was
The uranium markets have not been insulated from the global uncertainty around reciprocal tariffs which has been playing out the last few weeks, but in a reprieve under Annex II of the US Presidential Executive Order on tariffs, all forms of uranium became exempt last week.
Petra Capital highlighted across the uranium suite all will be exempt, including uranium ores and concentrates, natural uranium metal, natural uranium compounds, uranium enriched in U235, and compounds of uranium depleted in U235.
The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF hit a 12-month low of US$27.60 post Liberation Day and has since rallied to US$31.39.
Price reactions in the ETF do in part reflect the volatility in the underlying US equity markets, but confirmation of the exemption removes one of the “key uncertainties in the uranium market”, Petra highlights.
Despite what was perceived as positive news, uranium markets remained subdued over last week. Industry consultants, TradeTech noted the spot U3O8 price slipped by -US$0.25/lb to US$65/lb, unchanged from April 10.
A total of 700klbs of U3O8 transactions were recorded in the spot market with a 100klb transaction recorded last Friday at US$65/lb for delivery at Orano’s facility in France.
There were no transactions and no new demand in the term, conversion or enrichment markets over last week. TradeTech’s Mid-Term U3O8 price indicator sat at US$70/lb and the Long-Term U3O8 price indicator at US$80/lb.
Montreal hosted the World Nuclear Fuel Cycle 2025 Conference last week. Several major themes were covered at the conference including the need for the nuclear fuel cycle to support the targeted tripling of global nuclear energy capacity, including the availability of uranium, enrichment services, and fabrication.
Nicholle Butcher, President and CEO of Ontario Power Generation, discussed how Canada was progressing with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and a CA$25bn investment in refurbishing existing reactors has assisted in making the country’s supply chain more robust.
Cooperation globally was stressed as imperative to further technological innovation and development of nuclear energy, while attendees emphasised concerns over market volatility from trade policies. The uncertainty had caused many utilities to adopt a “wait and see” approach which had impacted negatively on short-term procurement decisions.
Uranium miners in focus
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) announced the deferral of the final investment decision for Tumas due to current uranium market conditions. The US$80/lb longer term price is insufficient to incentivise management to go forth at this stage with the project.
Instead, the board has adopted a staged approval and the delay in the construction of the processing plant which constitutes most of the capital expenditure of the project.
Inflation has impacted on the capex burden, increasing by 15% to -US$475m, with cash costs to US$38.60/lb and all-in-sustaining costs of US$44.52/lb. Deep Yellow has also extended the timeline to 24 months from 18 months previously with a more cautious 15-month ramp-up from nine months previously.
Canaccord pushed out expected first production to early 2028. Management highlighted “the schedule estimated for Tumas is considered to be conservative and will be a target for further refinement during the ongoing detailed engineering”.
This entails ongoing investment in early works infrastructure and engineering, including power and water, with cash on the balance sheet of $227m at the end of March.
Canaccord Genuity weighed into the announcement, explaining Tumas is not at the bottom of the cost curve, but Tumas is viewed as a major project and one that should proceed to what the analyst believes is a pending “structural deficit” in the U3O8 market.
With inflationary impacts and rising cost estimates for greenfield sites this cycle, the broker stresses the incentive price for new production has risen notably over the last twelve months and the current price offered by utilities is insufficient to incentivise new African supply.
Canaccord retains a Speculative Buy rating with target price lowered to $1.61 from $1.83.
FNArena daily monitored broker Bell Potter highlighted the opex was negatively impacted by lower grade reserves at 298ppm versus 340ppm. All daily monitored brokers have retained Buy-equivalent ratings with an average target price of $1.57.
In contrast, Lotus Resources ((LOT)) announced an additional off-take of 600klbs for 2026 to 2029, at similar terms to the existing off-take at a fixed price with an escalation clause in the contract based around the existing long-term U3O8 price at US$80/lb.This contract is with a leading North American utility, Petra Capital details, and a Fortune 500 member.
The company continues to aim for first production from Kayelekera in the upcoming September quarter and has cash on hand of $133m with no drawn debt and an existing facility of around US$38m at the end of December 2024.
Petra retains a Buy rating and 30c target price.
Boss Energy ((BOE)) reported its 3Q25 trading update which broadly met Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts, but was well ahead of consensus forecasts.
Daily monitored broker Macquarie highlighted drummed 295.8klbs U3O8 at the Honeymoon project in 2Q25, beating Macquarie’s forecast by 7.6%. Boss is seen as well-placed to beat 850klbs FY25 guidance and noted Alta Mesa is performing well, with 0.7Mlb/year run-rate in March, and IX3 is expected to commence in 2026.
Citi explained sales of 150klbs came in lower than expected by -18%, due mainly to a timing issue. The realised price of US$70/lb was 8% above the broker’s forecast and rose further to US$84/lb after accounting for the loaned material repayment by enCore Energy.
The consensus target price is $3.771 with six Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold-equivalent rating from FNArena daily monitored brokers.
RBC Capital initiated coverage on Boss Energy with an Outperform (Buy-equivalent) rating and a $3.40 target price.
The company’s Honeymoon uranium restart has been a success thus far, including proof of the new processing concept and coming in within cost expectations. The near-term weakness in the U3O8 spot price does not detract from the positive view RBC has on the uranium outlook, with Boss anticipated to realise U3O8 pricing of US$80US$90/lb once it achieves full production.
Morgan Stanley was the latest of the daily monitored brokers to consider tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners’ cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts regarding the outlook for Paladin Energy ((PDN)).
While the company’s key growth project is Patterson Lake South in Canada, a 9.1mlb per annum development, Langer Heinrich continues to focus on offsetting the lower cutoff grade from inventories through resource production.
EPS estimates were lowered by -641% and -25% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, and the broker’s target price slashed to $5 from $10. No change made to Overweight (Buy-equivalent) rating.
The consensus target price for daily monitored brokers stands at $8.293 with seven Buy-equivalent ratings including Morgan Stanley.
RBC Capital has initiated coverage of Paladin with a target price of $5.40 and a Sector Perform (Hold-equivalent) rating. The analyst is awaiting confirmation management can remediate the problems from the severe rain event in March and progress with the ramp-up plans for Langer Heinrich before taking a more positive view.
Some caution is also flagged around the timing of the permitting for the Patterson Lake South project in Canada, with opposition from Indigenous group Mtis Nation needing to be resolved.
No let-up in short interests
Short positions continued to move higher in the week ending April 7, with Boss, Paladin and Deep Yellow sitting like the uranium trifecta representing the three highest short positions in the ASX200, with Lotus at number seven and Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) at number seventeen.
NexGen Energy ((NXG)) was the only stock to see a decline to 0.97% from 1.57%.
Short interest at Boss stands at 25.6%, up from 24.8%; Paladin at 16.72%, from 15.67%; Deep Yellow at 13.36%; Lotus at 11.06%; and Bannerman at 8.33%.
Some good news, and a share price pop, could see shorters scrambling to cover, but when?
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 11/04/2025 | 0.0400 |  -20.00% |
$0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 11/04/2025 | 0.1150 | -11.54% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 11/04/2025 | 0.0290 |  3.57% |
$0.07 | $0.02 | $0.100 | 244.8% |
|
| AKN | 11/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 11/04/2025 | 0.0550 | -11.29% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 11/04/2025 | 0.5900 | 0.85% |
$0.66 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 11/04/2025 | 2.1200 | – 4.07% |
$4.87 | $1.82 | $7.400 | 249.1% |
|
| BOE | 11/04/2025 | 2.6300 | 14.35% |
$5.99 | $1.99 | 92.5 | $3.771 | 43.4% |
| BSN | 11/04/2025 | 0.0120 | – 7.69% |
$0.14 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 11/04/2025 | 0.0400 | -20.00% |
$0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 11/04/2025 | 0.0670 | 3.08% |
$0.17 | $0.06 | $0.090 | 34.3% |
|
| CXU | 11/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 11/04/2025 | 0.0680 | -17.07% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 11/04/2025 | 0.9100 | – 0.55% |
$1.83 | $0.75 | -910.0 | $1.570 | 72.5% |
| EL8 | 11/04/2025 | 0.2300 | 4.55% |
$0.62 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 11/04/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 11/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 11/04/2025 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 11/04/2025 | 0.0500 | -16.67% |
$0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 11/04/2025 | 0.0500 | – 3.85% |
$0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 11/04/2025 | 0.1200 | -14.29% |
$1.03 | $0.11 | |||
| KOB | 11/04/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.05 | |||
| LAM | 11/04/2025 | 0.6700 | – 8.22% |
$1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 11/04/2025 | 0.1650 | 10.00% |
$0.49 | $0.13 | $0.450 | 172.7% |
|
| MEU | 11/04/2025 | 0.0390 | 2.63% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 11/04/2025 | 7.2100 | 3.89% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $15.700 | 117.8% |
|
| ORP | 11/04/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 11/04/2025 | 4.5800 | 0.22% |
$17.98 | $3.93 | -68.0 | $9.064 | 97.9% |
| PEN | 11/04/2025 | 0.6650 | 10.83% |
$2.44 | $0.55 | $4.810 | 623.3% |
|
| SLX | 11/04/2025 | 2.8000 | -16.17% |
$6.74 | $2.72 | $6.900 | 146.4% |
|
| TOE | 11/04/2025 | 0.1700 | 6.25% |
$0.51 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 11/04/2025 | 0.0170 | 6.25% |
$0.03 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED