In Brief: Greatland Gold, Pinnacle, ResMed & Hub24

This story features PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PNI

Structural thematics and stock picking are in focus as market volatility throws up opportunities for investors.

-A “great” coming to the ASX later this year
-Pinnacle’s London growth could be an eye opener
-ResMed likely to show some seasonality in upcoming quarterly
-Hub24 riding the growth watch for Managed Accounts

By Danielle Ecuyer

Quote of the week comes from Nigel Green, deVere CEO:

“The dollar still dominates global reserves but that dominance is beginning to resemble complacency. The global financial system is evolving, fast. And while the US clings to the past, others are preparing for a different future.”

Another WA gold stock to watch out for

One would have to be living under a rock not to notice the historic rally in the gold price, and subsequently gold stocks.

A few brokers have been writing enthusiastically about Greatland Gold.

You are forgiven for not knowing the company, as while it is Australian, it is listed on the London Stock Exchange with a US$2bn market cap; and it is coming to the ASX with the aim of a cross-listing in 4Q 2025, including a reorganisation towards an Australian parent company.

Macquarie initiated coverage this week, highlighting the company became an “overnight” gold-copper miner of scale, some 200koz p.a. plus, post the acquisition of 100% of Telfer/Havieron in Australia.

Telfer is currently producing gold and copper, and Macquarie expects Greatland can successfully extend the life at Telfer until the satellite project, Havieron, some 45kms from Telfer, is developed. Ore is expected in late 2027, and the development of Havieron will retain production at over 200koz per annum.

Costs are anticipated to halve at the project and free cash flow yield increase to about 17% once Havieron is fully ramped up by 2030.

Canaccord Genuity also outlined a positive proposition for Greatland, noting the company had offered an upbeat announcement to the Telfer reserve, extending the mine by another 18 months, which assists in bridging the gap between Telfer and Havieron.

For Canaccord, the life extension at Telfer marks the key risk that has now been alleviated, with some investors worried the two trains at Telfer would have been idled in the absence of processable ore.

The company also reported a strong 3Q25 production report, which came in above Macquarie’s expectations by 22% at 90koz due to more robust recoveries at 87% versus expectations at 79%.

Cash on hand finished at $398m at the quarter, up by $235m and $198m above the broker’s forecast. Greatland is debt free. A maiden production guidance for FY25 was also offered at 196koz201koz versus the Macquarie estimate of 178koz, which has been raised to 199koz, with lower-than-estimated all-in sustaining cost guidance of $2,175/oz.

Macquarie retains an Outperform (Buy-equivalent) with a target price of 17p, with Canaccord rating Greatland Gold a Speculative Buy and 20p target price.

Structural growth for wealth manager

Company share prices with business models directly linked to the equity and asset markets always display a high correlation to the underlying performance of those markets, which has transpired in the latest equity market corrections.

High-flying Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI)) was in focus this week, with Jarden reiterating an Overweight (Buy-equivalent) rating on the stock with catchy title “Is London calling?”.

For context, Pinnacle partnered with former members of Royal London’s global equities team to create a new affiliate, Life Cycle Investment Partners. Pinnacle took a 25% stake in the boutique firm, with the majority owned by the founding team. Pinnacle is tasked with providing the operational support and distribution capabilities to Life Cycle.

Jarden estimates the previous funds under management by Peter Rutter, the founder of Life Cycle and former head of Royal London, at around GBP7.8bn-8.5bn.

The non-solicit clause period for Life Cycle finished in January, and the broker would not be amazed if Rutter and the team seek to approach the former client base.

Life Cycle has already grown assets under management to over GBP2bn, and Jarden envisages if the previous funds under management could be secured, the potential of total addressable capital at GBP7bn to GBP8bn versus Pinnacle’s total affiliate funds under management of $155bn.

Jarden remains positive on Pinnacle and retains a target price of $22.05.

Defensive tariffs qualities boost the ResMed appeal

ResMed‘s ((RMD)) upcoming 3Q25 results were also in Jarden’s spotlight, with the conference call on April 24 in focus. The company is forecast to report non-GAAP net profit after tax of $362.9m, a rise of 15.4% on a year earlier.

Channel checks by the analyst infer some seasonality starting to return, which may be evident in the third-quarter report. US device growth is lowered to 4% from 9%, with re-acceleration to 8% estimated in 4Q25.

Gross margins, which missed in the previous quarter after a forex impost of -30bps, were guided by management to remain, but Jarden sees some potential upside due to EURUSD strengthening. Gross margins are forecast at 59.5% for 3Q25 due to procurement positives and manufacturing efficiencies for AirSense. For 4Q25, the analyst is looking for gross margin at 59.8%, which aligns with guidance at 59%-60%.

Jarden retains an Overweight (Buy-equivalent) rating with a $39.97 target price, down from $41.48, emphasising the company has more tariff-defensive qualities as less manufacturing is conducted in sensitive geographic jurisdictions.

Goldman Sachs also remains positive on ResMed into the upcoming 3Q report, noting US channel checks suggest ongoing strength in new patient commencements and therapy compliance. Management is expected to discuss the levers for the company to offset and navigate US tariff risks.

A Buy rating is retained with a $46.90 target price. The broker stresses the report should reflect the defensive qualities of ResMed and the current share price is failing to discount the future growth potential of the business.

Volatility brings a buying opportunity 

Moelis Australia turned to the latest 3Q25 results from Hub24 ((HUB)), stressing market volatility is offering a buying opportunity in the specialist platform provider.

The company saw net inflows of $4.9bn, which included $1.3bn migration from ClearView. Excluding the large transactions, net inflows were $3.6bn, higher than the analyst’s forecast of $3.3bn.

Funds under administration ended the quarter at $102.5bn, which included a negative market movement of -$1.3bn for the period.

Moelis emphasises Hub24 continued to experience ongoing positive platform flows despite market volatility. Over the medium term, the analyst believes the company will continue to benefit from robust structural growth in managed accounts. This segment of the wealth market is forecast to advance at an average compound 15% rate per annum out to 2030.

For Hub24, this potentially underwrites growth in market share of the platform industry to around 14.6% from circa 8.3% currently.

The stock is upgraded to a Buy rating and the target price moves to $77.28 from $88.58.

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