Weekly Reports | 10:30 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
A quiet week for the uranium market, but share price declines serve up some investing ‘opportunities’.
-Shaw Flags Strong Uranium Fundamentals After Conference Insights
-Paladin and Boss Trim Targets but Brokers Stay Bullish
-Silex and NexGen Seen as Long-Term Winners Despite Volatility
By Danielle Ecuyer
Easter cuts short the uranium week
Easter Friday cut industry consultant’s weekly update to a brief comment on uranium prices.
TradeTech’s spot price was unchanged at US$65/lb over the four-day period, with the mid-term TradeTech U3O8 price indicator at US$70/lb and the long-term U3O8 price indicator at US$80/lb.
Shaw and Partners dissects U308 stocks
Shaw and Partners were on the front foot following the broker’s 7th Uranium Conference on March 27.
The key takeaway: the supply/demand fundamentals of the global uranium industry have “never looked better.” Once some uncertainty is lifted and buyers adopt a more positive and less cautious stance, Shaw predicts the pent-up demand support is likely to underpin a rise in contracting and uranium prices.
An Overweight position is retained for the sector, translating to investors adopting a higher relative weighting to U3O8 stocks compared to the index weighting.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)), NexGen Energy ((NXG)), Silex Systems ((SLX)), Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) and Boss Energy ((BOE)) are the preferred stock exposures.
At the latest site visit to Bannerman’s Etango uranium project in Namibia post the Indaba Mining Conference, Shaw’s analyst was upbeat on the progress achieved since the previous site visit in May 2024. The recent major wet weather event in Namibia did not significantly impact Etango.
The shares are Buy, High risk rated with the target price lowered to $4.70 from $7.40.
The recent analyst visit to Boss Energy’s Honeymoon uranium project in South Australia revealed the operation is ramping up in line with expectations, Shaw highlights, and on track to achieve guidance of 850klbs of U3O8 production in FY25.
The broker’s Buy, High risk rating is retained, with target price cut to $3.26 from $3.70.
UBS downgraded Boss Energy’s rating to Neutral from Buy, with a lower target price of $3.10, down -3%. The year-to-date spot U3O8 price is down -12%, while the share price has risen 8%.
Management recently reiterated FY25 production guidance of 850klb, with pre-reported March quarter production of around 295klb and year-to-date production of 520klb, inferring a 12% quarter-on-quarter rise is required in the June period to achieve guidance.
Given Boss achieved 14% growth in the March quarter on the previous quarter, the June target seems reasonable. UBS likes the longer-term production potential for the company but views the stock price as fully valued against a poor macro sentiment backdrop.
Has Paladin’s share price overreacted?
UBS also considers the decline in the Paladin share price year-to-date, down -40% versus the U3O8 spot price decline, and, while acknowledging the operational issues at Langer Heinrich (including water supply issues, lower inventory grades, and a major flooding event), views these issues as temporary.
FY25-26 production forecasts are lowered by -20% and -15%, respectively, to 2.6mlbs/4.5mlbs due in large part to the rain event and the stalling of Langer Heinrich’s ramp-up. The stock remains Buy rated; target price is trimmed -1% to $9.10.
The analyst likes the Fission Energy acquisition and believes Patterson Lake South offers growth potential yet to be reflected in the share price.
Shaw and Partners also retains a Buy, High Risk rating for Paladin, with a $10 target price, noting management withdrew guidance after the 1-in-50-year rain event, warning the targeted 6mlb of production by the end of 2025 might not be achieved.
This analyst believes the market has “massively overreacted” to the event. Target price cut to $10.10 from $15.50.
Citi noted the company was served with a class action in the Supreme Court of Victoria alleging misleading representations and contravening ASX continuous disclosure obligations between June 27, 2024, and the release of the initial FY25 U3O8 production guidance of 4mlbs-4.5mlbs, which was later downgraded to 3mlbs-3.6mlbs.
The claim alleges the company was aware the initial guidance was too positive and that there was a “material risk” it would not be met.
Management subsequently announced ramp-up challenges in the September quarter trading update on October 28, including stockpiled ore issues, water supply problems, and delays around commissioning of the second classification circuit.
Earnings guidance was subsequently downgraded on November 11, 2024, due to ore quality issues and disruptions in water supply.
Citi retains a Buy rating with a $10.20 target price.
Shaw and Partners is Buy rated on NexGen, High Risk, with a $12.30 target price, down from $14.40. The analyst stresses exploration success is likely to enhance the strategic value of the company. NexGen recently announced its “best-ever” exploration results at the Rook 1 uranium project.
Lotus Resources ((LOT)) has updated the development schedule for its Kayelekera uranium project in Malawi and anticipates production in 3Q25, some 12 months ahead of initial expectations.
The company has revised down capex but increased opex guidance and is seeking to lock in contracts, including a recently announced 600klb contract with a “leading” North American utility.
The analyst does not disagree with management’s approach but believes it is accompanied by higher risk. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy, High Risk, with a target price of 22c.
Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) is also downgraded by Shaw to Hold, High Risk, from Buy, with the target price cut to $1 from $4.60 due to uncertainty around commissioning of the Lance uranium project and concerns around available financing to reach cash flow breakeven.
Silex Systems’ target price is trimmed to $6.50 from $6.90, but Shaw retains a Buy, High Risk rating.
The analyst believes a positive outcome from current enrichment trials at the Test Loop facility in Wilmington could generate more investor interest in the company. A successful trial could also result in Cameco exercising its option to acquire an additional 26% of the Global Laser Enrichment joint venture.
Short interests remain high
Short interest is showing no signs of backing down. Boss Energy sits at 25.66% and Paladin at 16.26%; the number one and two most shorted ASX200 stocks as of April 11.
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) sits at 13.18% in fourth position, with Lotus Resources eighth at 10.87% and Bannerman Energy in seventeenth position at 8.32%.
Recent weekly uranium updates for further reading:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/15/uranium-week-uncertainty-delays-tumas-project/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/08/uranium-week-sprott-physical-uranium-trust-speculations/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/01/uranium-week-u3o8-renaissance-meets-tariffs/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/25/uranium-week-small-positives/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 18/04/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 18/04/2025 | 0.1050 |  – 8.70% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 18/04/2025 | 0.0260 | -10.34% |
$0.07 | $0.02 | $0.100 |  284.6% |
|
| AKN | 18/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 18/04/2025 | 0.0560 | 1.82% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 18/04/2025 | 0.5500 | – 5.17% |
$0.66 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 18/04/2025 | 1.9950 | -10.14% |
$4.87 | $1.82 | $4.700 | 135.6% |
|
| BOE | 18/04/2025 | 2.5800 | – 3.37% |
$5.99 | $1.99 | 84.8 | $3.694 | 43.2% |
| BSN | 18/04/2025 | 0.0140 | 7.69% |
$0.12 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 18/04/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 18/04/2025 | 0.0680 | 1.49% |
$0.17 | $0.06 | $0.090 | 32.4% |
|
| CXU | 18/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 18/04/2025 | 0.0700 | 6.06% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 18/04/2025 | 0.9100 | – 3.70% |
$1.83 | $0.75 | -910.0 | $1.570 | 72.5% |
| EL8 | 18/04/2025 | 0.2100 | – 8.70% |
$0.62 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 18/04/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 18/04/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 18/04/2025 | 0.0040 | 33.33% |
$0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 18/04/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 18/04/2025 | 0.0510 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 18/04/2025 | 0.1200 | 0.00% | $1.03 | $0.11 | |||
| KOB | 18/04/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.04 | |||
| LAM | 18/04/2025 | 0.7200 | 2.86% |
$1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 18/04/2025 | 0.1550 | – 3.13% |
$0.49 | $0.13 | $0.325 | 109.7% |
|
| MEU | 18/04/2025 | 0.0390 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 18/04/2025 | 7.5300 | 1.62% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $14.650 | 94.6% |
|
| ORP | 18/04/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 18/04/2025 | 4.5500 | – 1.73% |
$17.98 | $3.93 | -63.2 | $8.279 | 81.9% |
| PEN | 18/04/2025 | 0.6200 | – 6.77% |
$2.44 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 18/04/2025 | 2.7400 | – 4.20% |
$6.74 | $2.62 | $6.500 | 137.2% |
|
| TOE | 18/04/2025 | 0.1800 | 0.00% | $0.48 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 18/04/2025 | 0.0190 | 11.76% |
$0.03 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PEN - PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED