In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 24-04-25

Weekly Reports | 10:45 AM

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED ((AEL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons' notes Amplitude Energy's March quarter results were in line with consensus, with the highlight being the successful implementation of 7-day shutdown at Orbost and returning the plant to full capacity.

The broker believes the company will be able to manage its finances during phase 1 of the East Coast Supply Project, after the cost blow-out during the decommissioning phase.

The analyst cut FY25 production forecast by -2% but raised FY26 by 1%, and incorporated previously announced cost blow-out.

Target unchanged at 24c. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight on share price fall.

BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Petra Capital notes the US-China tariff escalation has created uncertainty for Breville Group's earnings, but its current project to shift 120v production out of China would offset most of the impact from 2H26/FY27.

Currently, 40% of group purchases are exposed to US-China tariffs, and the goal is to cut this to 10% by the end of 1H26 and further in the 2H. Target locations are Mexico (tariff-exempt), Indonesia and Cambodia, which have shown willingness for negotiations. 

All in all, the broker's base case scenario shows FY26 EPS estimate falling -11.3%.

Target cut to $28.50 from $30.00. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell on share price retreat.

HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis and Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis notes Hub24's 3Q25 update showed positive flows even after excluding the impact of ClearView migration flow of $1.3bn. While the company flagged the risk of FUA impact from negative market movements in early April, it also indicated no momentum shift was observed yet.

Still, the broker downgraded FUA forecast for FY25 on expectations of market impact, and also lowered FY26-27 forecasts. EPS forecast for FY25/26/27 cut by -3.1%/-9.3%/-6.6% respectively.

Target drops to $77.28 from $88.58. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold as the broker sees the recent pullback as an opportunity.

Jarden upgrades Hub24 to Neutral from Underweight with a lower target price of $63 from $66.65.

The company reported 3Q25 platform flows of $4,944m, which was above consensus by 4.3% and 8.5% higher than the broker's estimate. ClearView Management contributed $1.3bn.

Adjusting for the contribution, the underlying flows grew 5.4%, which were also better than Jarden's estimate.

Hub24 added 5,015 new advisers, up 2.6% on the December quarter and a new all-time high.

The analyst lifts FY25 EPS estimate by 2.7% and lowers FY26 by -8.4%.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and EV materials producers, and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.

Overall, the broker lowered its near- to mid-term nickel and copper pricing forecasts, increased near-term cobalt pricing and left lithium pricing unchanged. The broker also lowered the near-term AUD/USD forecast.

For the March quarter, the broker is forecasting earnings (EBITDA) loss of -$36m for IGO Ltd, an improvement from -$106m in the December quarter. The focus will be on CGP3 completion guidance due to risk of delay.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell. Target unchanged at $3.50.