Weekly Reports | Apr 24 2025
This story features AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AEL
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED ((AEL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons’ notes Amplitude Energy’s March quarter results were in line with consensus, with the highlight being the successful implementation of 7-day shutdown at Orbost and returning the plant to full capacity.
The broker believes the company will be able to manage its finances during phase 1 of the East Coast Supply Project, after the cost blow-out during the decommissioning phase.
The analyst cut FY25 production forecast by -2% but raised FY26 by 1%, and incorporated previously announced cost blow-out.
Target unchanged at 24c. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight on share price fall.
BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Petra Capital notes the US-China tariff escalation has created uncertainty for Breville Group’s earnings, but its current project to shift 120v production out of China would offset most of the impact from 2H26/FY27.
Currently, 40% of group purchases are exposed to US-China tariffs, and the goal is to cut this to 10% by the end of 1H26 and further in the 2H. Target locations are Mexico (tariff-exempt), Indonesia and Cambodia, which have shown willingness for negotiations.
All in all, the broker’s base case scenario shows FY26 EPS estimate falling -11.3%.
Target cut to $28.50 from $30.00. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell on share price retreat.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis and Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis notes Hub24’s 3Q25 update showed positive flows even after excluding the impact of ClearView migration flow of $1.3bn. While the company flagged the risk of FUA impact from negative market movements in early April, it also indicated no momentum shift was observed yet.
Still, the broker downgraded FUA forecast for FY25 on expectations of market impact, and also lowered FY26-27 forecasts. EPS forecast for FY25/26/27 cut by -3.1%/-9.3%/-6.6% respectively.
Target drops to $77.28 from $88.58. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold as the broker sees the recent pullback as an opportunity.
Jarden upgrades Hub24 to Neutral from Underweight with a lower target price of $63 from $66.65.
The company reported 3Q25 platform flows of $4,944m, which was above consensus by 4.3% and 8.5% higher than the broker’s estimate. ClearView Management contributed $1.3bn.
Adjusting for the contribution, the underlying flows grew 5.4%, which were also better than Jarden’s estimate.
Hub24 added 5,015 new advisers, up 2.6% on the December quarter and a new all-time high.
The analyst lifts FY25 EPS estimate by 2.7% and lowers FY26 by -8.4%.
IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and EV materials producers, and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.
Overall, the broker lowered its near- to mid-term nickel and copper pricing forecasts, increased near-term cobalt pricing and left lithium pricing unchanged. The broker also lowered the near-term AUD/USD forecast.
For the March quarter, the broker is forecasting earnings (EBITDA) loss of -$36m for IGO Ltd, an improvement from -$106m in the December quarter. The focus will be on CGP3 completion guidance due to risk of delay.
Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell. Target unchanged at $3.50.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| 2 | BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Petra Capital | |
| 3 | HUB24 LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 4 | HUB24 LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Jarden | |
| 5 | IGO LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Canaccord Genuity | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29M | 29Metals | $0.14 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.13 | 0.15 | -13.33% |
| AGL | AGL Energy | $10.38 | Goldman Sachs | 11.40 | 11.90 | -4.20% |
| ALD | Ampol | $22.34 | Goldman Sachs | 30.60 | 31.30 | -2.24% |
| AUB | AUB Group | $31.46 | Jarden | 36.75 | 37.30 | -1.47% |
| AUE | Aurum Resources | $0.35 | Petra Capital | 1.02 | 0.93 | 9.68% |
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | $0.86 | Goldman Sachs | 1.25 | 1.45 | -13.79% |
| Jarden | 0.71 | 1.01 | -29.70% | |||
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.18 | Goldman Sachs | 1.25 | 1.30 | -3.85% |
| BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | $2.15 | Petra Capital | 4.45 | 5.39 | -17.44% |
| BRG | Breville Group | $27.15 | Petra Capital | 28.50 | 30.00 | -5.00% |
| CGF | Challenger | $7.06 | Jarden | 7.40 | 7.60 | -2.63% |
| CPU | Computershare | $39.05 | Jarden | 34.00 | 34.50 | -1.45% |
| CU6 | Clarity Pharmaceuticals | $2.08 | Canaccord Genuity | 6.74 | 8.06 | -16.38% |
| EBR | EBR Systems | $1.22 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.56 | 2.15 | 19.07% |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | $7.90 | Canaccord Genuity | 7.75 | 7.25 | 6.90% |
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | $3.91 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.15 | 5.10 | 0.98% |
| Moelis | 4.15 | 3.20 | 29.69% | |||
| HMC | HMC Capital | $4.60 | Jarden | 6.85 | 8.65 | -20.81% |
| HUB | Hub24 | $67.76 | Jarden | 63.00 | 66.65 | -5.48% |
| Moelis | 77.28 | 88.58 | -12.76% | |||
| Wilsons | 71.50 | 65.06 | 9.90% | |||
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $7.97 | Goldman Sachs | 8.30 | 8.15 | 1.84% |
| Jarden | 7.70 | 8.00 | -3.75% | |||
| IPX | Iperionx | $3.29 | Petra Capital | 6.95 | 6.75 | 2.96% |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | $1.40 | Goldman Sachs | 2.01 | 2.09 | -3.83% |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $0.56 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.50 | 0.65 | -23.08% |
| MAC | MAC Copper | $14.25 | Canaccord Genuity | 20.50 | 21.00 | -2.38% |
| MEI | Meteoric Resources | $0.10 | Petra Capital | 0.25 | 0.24 | 4.17% |
| MEK | Meeka Metals | $0.15 | Petra Capital | 0.25 | 0.19 | 31.58% |
| MLX | Metals X | $0.53 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.50 | 0.43 | 16.28% |
| MPL | Medibank Private | $4.53 | Jarden | 4.30 | 4.40 | -2.27% |
| NIC | Nickel Industries | $0.51 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.55 | 0.80 | -31.25% |
| NWC | New World Resources | $0.02 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.07 | 0.12 | -41.67% |
| ORG | Origin Energy | $10.29 | Goldman Sachs | 10.05 | 10.30 | -2.43% |
| PPT | Perpetual | $15.68 | Jarden | 22.25 | 22.75 | -2.20% |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | $21.63 | Jarden | 24.10 | 23.65 | 1.90% |
| RMD | ResMed | $33.25 | Jarden | 39.97 | 41.48 | -3.64% |
| SDF | Steadfast Group | $5.77 | Jarden | 6.25 | 6.60 | -5.30% |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $9.89 | Canaccord Genuity | 10.50 | 10.75 | -2.33% |
| STO | Santos | $5.95 | Goldman Sachs | 7.80 | 7.90 | -1.27% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $19.59 | Jarden | 19.95 | 20.85 | -4.32% |
| SVL | Silver Mines | $0.09 | Petra Capital | 0.17 | 0.14 | 21.43% |
| VEA | Viva Energy | $1.63 | Goldman Sachs | 3.00 | 3.05 | -1.64% |
| WAF | West African Resources | $2.30 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.55 | 4.50 | 1.11% |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | $20.42 | Goldman Sachs | 23.90 | 24.50 | -2.45% |
| WIA | WIA Gold | $0.19 | Petra Capital | 0.30 | 0.28 | 7.14% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
ALD AMPOL LIMITED
Consumer Products & Services Overnight Price: $22.24
Goldman Sachs rates ((ALD)) as Buy (1)
Goldman Sachs notes the significant volatility across energy stocks on global tariff-related news and the fall in Brent crude price below US$60/bbl for the first time since 2021.
The analysts initially trimmed global oil demand forecasts and consequently cut Brent forecast to US$66/bbl in 2025 and US$58/bbl in 2026. This was revised on news of a 90-day pause to elevated US tariffs. with a forecast of US$65/bbl for 2025 and US$70/bbl for 2026.
The broker marked-to-market commodity prices and forex, lowered near-term oil price and refining margin forecasts, and rolled forward valuation. This resulted in a -1-4% downgrade in target price for most energy stocks.
The broker expects Ampol’s Lyntton refining margin in the March quarter was US$7.2/bbl based on -17% q/q lower input due to the 10-day shutdown on account of Cyclone Alfred.
Buy. Target cut to $30.60 from $31.30.
This report was published on April 10, 2025.
Target price is $30.60 Current Price is $22.24 Difference: $8.36
If ALD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.40, suggesting upside of 32.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.47.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.7, implying annual growth of 199.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 186.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.96.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.3, implying annual growth of 34.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BRE BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED
Rare Earth Minerals Overnight Price: $2.30
Petra Capital rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1)
Brazilian Rare Earths had acquired Amargosa bauxite project in Brazil from Rio Tinto ((RIO)) for the rare earths potential, but with the rise in bauxite prices and discovery of high gallium grades, the company has revised its strategy.
Adding to the potential is the renegotiation with Rio Tinto to remove bauxite rights and replace them with a royalty agreement, giving the company flexibility to opt for a new production path via JV or spin-out.
Petra Capital notes the strategic appeal is boosted by high gallium grades, where global demand is rising. The broker’s high-level scenario estimates earnings (EBITDA) benefit of US$125-290m.
Buy. Target price $4.45.
This report was published on April 15, 2025.
Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $2.15
If BRE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.08.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.33.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CKF COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco Overnight Price: $8.08
Wilsons rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (1)
Collins Foods announced a strategic update where the plan is to grow same-store sales and manage costs in KFC Australia, divert capital to Germany from the Netherlands and exit the Taco Bell business.
Wilsons’ initial analysis is the Taco Bell exit is disappointing, but EPS-accretive, Australian plans are neutral-to-positive for earnings, and the European strategy introduces uncertainty for the next 1-2 years’ forecasts.
No change to forecasts as the broker awaits more details on the Taco Bell exit process and growth plans in Germany.
Overweight. Target unchanged at $10.72.
This report was published on April 16, 2025.
Target price is $10.72 Current Price is $8.08 Difference: $2.64
If CKF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting upside of 20.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in May.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 39.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.61.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of -21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 56.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.28.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of 36.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NEU NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences Overnight Price: $10.53
Canaccord Genuity rates ((NEU)) as Buy (1)
Following a positive outcome from Type C meeting with the US FDA regarding the Phase 3 trial of NNZ-2591 for Phelan McDermid, Neuren Pharmaceuticals is on track to start Phase 3 study in mid-2025.
Canaccord Genuity sees potential for a clinical read-out by early 2027, which could, if positive, lead to an approval.
The broker believes the current stock price is only capturing the Daybue opportunity and there’s scope for material upside from NNZ-2591.
Buy. Target unchanged at $28.12.
This report was published on April 14, 2025.
Target price is $28.12 Current Price is $10.53 Difference: $17.59
If NEU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.94.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HMC HMC CAPITAL LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $4.57
Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Overweight (2)
Jarden has lowered the profile for AUM growth for HMC Capital, noting the outlook for earnings and valuation depends on the ability to raise unlisted capital.
The base case scenario assumes $8bn of total acquisitions from 1H25-1H28, which resulted in the underlying FFO/share forecast declining -5.4% in FY25 and -23.7% in FY26.
The broker also highlighted the bull and base case scenarios where acquisitions rise by $18.75bn and $5.5bn during this period, and FFO/share forecast comes in at 33.1c and 18.3c in FY26, respectively, vs the base case of 25.3c.
Overweight. Target cut to $6.85 from $8.65.
This report was published on April 14, 2025.
Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $2.28
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 92.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 27.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.68.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.8, implying annual growth of 169.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.06.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of -22.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements Overnight Price: $1.43
Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1)
Pilbara Minerals’ 3Q25 production was in line with Canaccord Genuity’s revised forecasts but missed consensus on cyclone impact and the ramp-up of the P1000 project.
Despite this, cash balance only fell -9% quarter-on-quarter to $1.1bn. The broker notes the company is focused on margin improvement with benefits from transitioning to the owner-operator model.
The company remains the broker’s top pick in the lithium space due to its strong balance sheet and cost focus.
Buy. Target unchanged at $2.70.
This report was published on April 17, 2025.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $1.27
If PLS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 38.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.81.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.75.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AEL - AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALD - AMPOL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRE - BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRG - BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CKF - COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HMC - HMC CAPITAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUB - HUB24 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEU - NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLS - PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED