Weekly Reports | May 30 2025
This story features BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRI
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
Upgrade
BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((BRI)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Taylor Collison.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Taylor Collison notes the outlook for Big River Industries’ is improving, and the recent share price fall at the same time as rising dwelling approvals, has opened an attractive entry point for investors.
The broker has upgraded the company to Speculative Buy from Hold.
The analyst highlights the housing construction outlook has improved, and showroom foot traffic has increased. While the delay in policy rate cuts is a key risk, the analyst’s base view is multi-year sustained demand rather than a one-off rebound.
No target price set.
DJERRIWARRH INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((DJW)) Upgrade to Outperform from Hold by Taylor Collison.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Taylor Collison notes Djerriwarrh Investments is now trading at a discount of -10.84% to pre-tax net tangible assets vs -6.69% in March. The equivalent Z-score is -1.06 vs -0.79.
The enhanced yield is around 7.1% grossed up for franking credits vs 6.4% in March, according to the broker.
Rating upgraded to Outperform from Hold on wider discount, Z-score and income per dollar investment.
No target price set.
ELDERS LIMITED ((ELD)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons saw how Elders posted a soft 1H25, with EBITDA below forecast and working capital pressure continuing to build.
Despite solid cost control, earnings fell short. Gross profit missed by -4%, dragged lower by Retail Products. Operating cash flow halved year-on-year, and leverage is now forecast to push past the group’s comfort zone.
Yet, Wilsons sees upside. While timing of the ACCC’s decision on the proposed acquisition of Delta Agricultural (due 29 May) looms as a swing factor, the broker argues the market is too focused on risk, ignoring Elders’ through-the-cycle earnings capacity and potential step-up in FY26-27 as Delta integrates.
System upgrades remain a known wildcard. The broker’s price target drops to $8.22 but rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight.
On Wilsons’ projections, Elders will be paying 36c in dividends to shareholders for many years into the future.
MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED ((MAP)) Upgrade to Buy from Buy, High Risk by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity has revised its estimates for Microba Life Sciences after considering a prescriber-based model across Australia, UK and the US markets.
Target price revised down to 26c from 44c as the broker assumes a conservative market adoption rate for MetaXplore and Meta Panel in all three key markets.
The sales assumptions in the forecasts, however, only include Australia and UK, where the operations currently sit. The US opportunity is estimated separately.
Rating revised to Buy from Speculative Buy.
Downgrade
ALS LIMITED ((ALQ)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgrades ALS Ltd to Underweight from Neutral due to the run-up in the share price, which is currently reflecting earnings upgrades, according to the analyst.
Research was issued before the company was due to report FY25 results today, with guidance for net profit after tax of $310m$313m, with Jarden positioned at the midpoint.
On balance, Jarden views the risks as slanted to the downside, with volatility in sampling flows and Bloomberg capital raising data indicating the commodity markets were down in Canada by -28% and Australia down -40% following a robust 3Q25.
Target price lifts slightly to $15 from $14.50.
OFX GROUP LIMITED ((OFX)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons downgraded OFX Group following a disappointing FY25 result and an accelerated reinvestment strategy that defers material benefits of its New Corporate Platform (NCP) to FY28 and beyond.
FY25 net operating income fell -6% and 2H25 missed revenue growth guidance. FY25 EBITDA declined -11% to $57.7m and EPS fell -16% to 10.7cps.
The broker expects a 15% lift in opex in FY26. Earnings (EBITDA) margin is forecast to fall to around 16%.
The accelerated spend triggers execution risk, macro uncertainty, and likely ASX300 removal in the near term, Wilsons explains.
The analyst’s earnings forecasts for FY26-27 are cut by -48% to -83%. FY26 EPS is now expected at 2.7cps, down from 13.8cps.
Target price falls to 94c.
OFX Group’s FY25 result missed Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts at all levels, and the implied net operating income (NOI) in 2H fell -8% to $104m, lower than company guidance of over $112m.
Commentary suggests the key takeaway from the result was the company’s focus on accelerating the rollout of its New Corporate Platform, and hence the requirement of -$24m higher capex and -$5m higher opex in FY26.
No NOI guidance was provided for FY26-27, but the company maintained the target of over 15% NOI growth for FY28 and beyond.
The broker cut FY26-28 NOI forecasts, which, together with higher opex, led to a -49% cut to FY26 EBITDA, -44% cut to FY27 EBITDA and -42% cut to FY28.
Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price $1.
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden notes the APLNG contract price review initiated by Sinopec concluded with a price lower than its forecasts. As a result, the broker cut Origin Energy’s (27.5% stake in APLNG) FY25-26 EPS forecasts by up to -3%.
The new price formula will last until the contract expiry, but APLNG has an option to request a price review in 2030, meaning there’s only upside risk to the price.
Broadly, the broker reckons the rally in the company’s share price is surprising given headwinds from lower oil prices, APLNG price review and the possibility of APLNG capex increase. Rating therefore downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.
Target price cut to $10.05 from $10.25.
The above dates from May 23. The below is from three days later, on May 26.
Jarden describes Origin Energy’s latest update as mixed. FY25 Energy Markets earnings guidance was raised to $1.3-1.4bn from $1.1-1.4bn, due to stronger generation, favourable market conditions, and lower green certificate costs.
This prompts a modest 3.1% upgrade to the broker’s FY25 Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) forecast to $1.36bn.
The downside came from Octopus Energy, with FY25 earnings downgraded by -$100m due to unusually warm spring weather in the UK, note the analysts. One-off effects tied to the 2022 UK price guarantee scheme also weighed.
Jarden has left its valuation of Octopus unchanged but raised the Energy Markets valuation by 10c per share, lifting the Origin target price to $10.15 from $10.05. Underweight retained.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Taylor Collison | |
| 2 | DJERRIWARRH INVESTMENTS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Taylor Collison | |
| 3 | ELDERS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| 4 | MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 5 | ALS LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 6 | OFX GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
| 7 | OFX GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 8 | ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAR | Astral Resources | $0.18 | Petra Capital | 0.36 | 0.29 | 24.14% |
| ALQ | ALS Ltd | $16.22 | Jarden | 15.00 | 14.50 | 3.45% |
| APA | APA Group | $8.23 | Jarden | 8.85 | 8.50 | 4.12% |
| APZ | Aspen Group | $3.41 | Moelis | 3.83 | 3.30 | 16.06% |
| BC8 | Black Cat Syndicate | $0.80 | Petra Capital | 1.82 | 1.53 | 18.95% |
| BEN | Bendigo & Adelaide Bank | $11.95 | Jarden | 11.60 | 11.50 | 0.87% |
| BSL | BlueScope Steel | $22.98 | Goldman Sachs | 28.70 | 27.70 | 3.61% |
| BTR | Brightstar Resources | $0.58 | Taylor Collison | 1.38 | 0.05 | 2966.67% |
| CAT | Catapult International | $5.26 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.00 | 4.20 | 19.05% |
| CCR | Credit Clear | $0.23 | Petra Capital | 0.49 | 0.60 | -18.33% |
| DDR | Dicker Data | $8.16 | Goldman Sachs | 9.05 | 9.80 | -7.65% |
| Jarden | 11.00 | 10.88 | 1.10% | |||
| EBR | EBR Systems | $1.11 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.50 | 2.56 | -2.34% |
| ELD | Elders | $6.27 | Wilsons | 8.22 | 8.38 | -1.91% |
| EVO | Embark Early Education | $0.69 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.09 | 1.04 | 4.81% |
| FMG | Fortescue | $15.68 | Goldman Sachs | 15.60 | 15.30 | 1.96% |
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | $4.52 | Moelis | 4.25 | 4.15 | 2.41% |
| IPG | IPD Group | $3.14 | Taylor Collison | 4.50 | 5.15 | -12.62% |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | $34.69 | Jarden | 42.00 | 44.00 | -4.55% |
| KYP | Kinatico | $0.20 | Taylor Collison | 0.27 | 0.22 | 22.73% |
| LNW | Light & Wonder | $145.55 | Canaccord Genuity | 195.00 | 201.00 | -2.99% |
| Goldman Sachs | 165.00 | 173.50 | -4.90% | |||
| MAP | Microba Life Sciences | $0.16 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.26 | 0.44 | -40.91% |
| MVF | Monash IVF | $0.77 | Wilsons | 1.25 | 1.40 | -10.71% |
| MYR | Myer | $0.72 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.05 | 1.15 | -8.70% |
| Canaccord Genuity | 1.10 | 1.15 | -4.35% | |||
| NUF | Nufarm | $2.34 | Wilsons | N/A | 3.97 | -100.00% |
| OFX | OFX Group | $0.77 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.00 | 2.20 | -54.55% |
| Wilsons | 0.94 | 2.11 | -55.45% | |||
| ORG | Origin Energy | $10.60 | Goldman Sachs | 10.10 | 10.15 | -0.49% |
| Jarden | 10.15 | 10.25 | -0.98% | |||
| PFP | Propel Funeral Partners | $4.44 | Moelis | 5.54 | 6.10 | -9.18% |
| PLT | Plenti Group | $0.87 | Wilsons | 1.32 | 1.58 | -16.46% |
| PRN | Perenti | $1.57 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.70 | 1.48 | 14.86% |
| RHC | Ramsay Health Care | $36.17 | Goldman Sachs | 39.00 | 38.70 | 0.78% |
| RUL | RPMGlobal | $3.10 | Taylor Collison | 3.48 | N/A | N/A |
| SGH | SGH Ltd | $50.64 | Goldman Sachs | 58.60 | 59.30 | -1.18% |
| SGLLV | Ricegrowers | $10.99 | Canaccord Genuity | 11.85 | 10.00 | 18.50% |
| SGM | Sims | $15.18 | Goldman Sachs | 12.00 | 14.80 | -18.92% |
| SLC | Superloop | $2.70 | Wilsons | 2.85 | N/A | N/A |
| SPZ | Smart Parking | $0.87 | Petra Capital | 1.56 | 1.63 | -4.29% |
| TLS | Telstra Group | $4.78 | Goldman Sachs | 4.90 | 4.50 | 8.89% |
| Jarden | 4.60 | 4.45 | 3.37% | |||
| TNE | TechnologyOne | $40.77 | Goldman Sachs | 38.10 | 24.05 | 58.42% |
| Wilsons | 40.99 | 22.28 | 83.98% | |||
| VAU | Vault Minerals | $0.44 | Jarden | 0.59 | 0.57 | 3.51% |
| Moelis | 0.70 | 0.68 | 2.94% | |||
| WBC | Westpac | $31.71 | Jarden | 30.00 | 31.00 | -3.23% |
| WES | Wesfarmers | $83.00 | Goldman Sachs | 87.30 | 80.40 | 8.58% |
| Jarden | 73.10 | 67.50 | 8.30% | |||
| WJL | Webjet Group | $0.88 | Wilsons | N/A | 0.90 | -100.00% |
| WOR | Worley | $13.10 | Goldman Sachs | 17.25 | 18.00 | -4.17% |
| WTC | WiseTech Global | $108.77 | Goldman Sachs | 126.00 | 128.00 | -1.56% |
| Jarden | 100.00 | 94.00 | 6.38% | |||
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
ANG AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting Overnight Price: $0.38
Petra Capital rates ((ANG)) as Buy (1)
Petra Capital believes Austin Engineering shares are oversold, and the risk from here is to the upside.
The broker has taken into account macro-economic uncertainty and downside risk to FY25 EBIT guidance and risks associated with the incoming CEO transitioning into the position. But these risks are already priced into the share price, the broker highlights.
Buy. Target unchanged at 58c.
This report was published on May 22, 2025.
Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.2
If ANG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.55.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.67.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three source
CNB CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED
Mining Overnight Price: $0.37
Moelis rates ((CNB)) as Buy (1)
Moelis maintains a Buy rating and 80 cent target for Carnaby Resources following strong initial assay results from Trekelano, a high-grade copper-gold deposit located in northwest Queensland.
A pre-feasibility study (PFS) is targeted for 2H 2025.
The broker sees these results as reinforcing the geological prospectivity of the Duchess project area and notes potential for an upgrade to the current production outlook.
Moelis highlights the advantage of existing rail and processing infrastructure at Duchess, allowing for a rapid and capital-efficient development.
In short, the broker believes the current valuation gap offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
This report was published on May 27, 2025.
Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.43
If CNB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.74.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.78.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IPG IPD GROUP LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers Overnight Price: $3.43
Taylor Collison rates ((IPG)) as Buy (1)
Taylor Collison remains of the view the cycle for IPD Group will turn and earnings will grow, but in the short term, it believes earnings risks are skewed to the downside.
The broker views current challenges as cyclical, and with the narrative unchanged from 1H, expects pressure on margins. Reasons for optimism include interest rate cuts that could boost commercial construction activity.
Buy. Target cut to $4.50.
This report was published on May 22, 2025.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $1.07
If IPG meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.99.
Forecast for FY26:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.21.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MVF MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED
Healthcare services Overnight Price: $0.77
Wilsons rates ((MVF)) as Overweight (1)
Monash IVF has cut FY25 net profit guidance by -10% to $27.5m, citing a slowdown in IVF cycles, particularly in Victoria, where volumes fell -20% YoY.
Wilsons sees no financial impact yet from April’s embryo mix-up and notes market share has held steady at 21.8%. Forecast EPS is downgraded -10%-18% over FY25-27, and the price target has been lowered to $1.25 (was $1.40).
Commentary highlights cycle volume softness and offshore price pressure are keeping margins under pressure. Management says May volumes improved, but not enough to offset a weak March-April. Overweight.
This report was published on May 27, 2025.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.48
If MVF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 46.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.16.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.85.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SLC SUPERLOOP LIMITED
Telecommunication Overnight Price: $2.62
Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Overweight (1)
Wilsons reiterates an Overweight rating on Superloop and raises the target price to $2.85 from $2.48, citing strong subscriber growth and momentum from Origin Energy’s ((ORG)) broadband offering.
The company added 42,000 NBN services in the March quarter, and is on track to add another around 41,000 in 4Q25, driven by Origin’s discounted broadband promotion, explain the analysts.
Superloop remains debt-free, generating improving cash flows, highlights the broker.
Key catalysts, according to Wilsons, include ASX200 index inclusion, sustained market share gains, and improved NBN pricing dynamics.
This report was published on May 28, 2025.
Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.23
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.77.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.4.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.43.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms
CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ - ALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANG - AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BRI - BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CNB - CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DJW - DJERRIWARRH INVESTMENTS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ELD - ELDERS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IPG - IPD GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAP - MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MVF - MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OFX - OFX GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED