Daily Market Reports | Jun 03 2025
This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ
The company is included in ASX20, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US markets recovered post President Tump’s steel tariff announcements and swirling geo-politics in Russia/Ukraine and Iran to finish another postitive session. ASX200 futures are pointing to a strong start for Tuesday.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8503.00 | + 69.00 | 0.82% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8414.10 | – 20.60 | – 0.24% |
| S&P500 | 5935.94 | + 24.25 | 0.41% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19242.61 | + 128.85 | 0.67% |
| DJIA | 42305.48 | + 35.41 | 0.08% |
| S&P500 VIX | 18.36 | – 0.21 | – 1.13% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.46 | + 0.05 | 1.04% |
| USD Index | 98.62 | – 0.64 | – 0.64% |
| FTSE100 | 8774.26 | + 1.88 | 0.02% |
| DAX30 | 23930.67 | – 66.81 | – 0.28% |
Good Morning,
US data continue to flag weak manufacturing and the impacts of tariff concerns, while investors are turning a blind eye to negative news and continuing to seek expsosure to bigtech with big balance sheets and big cashflows.
What happened overnight: Extract NAB Markets Research
Summary: US equities staged a late rally, led by big tech, rebounding from an initial decline triggered by a softer than expected US ISM manufacturing.
Details in the ISM revealed contraction in activity alongside an increase in prices, a combo not lost in the US Treasury market. The curve lifted in an almost parallel fashion with the 10y and 30y tenors up by around 4bps. Oil prices climbed, driven by OPEC-Plus increasing production less than expected and heightened geopolitical tensions. The USD resumed its decline with DXY below a 99 handle. AUD and NZD top the leader board up circa 1%.
The US ISM manufacturing came below expectations, showing no recovery from the previous month. US manufacturing extended its contraction to a third consecutive month with the headline printing at 48.5 vs 49.2 expected.
Reflecting the messy trade negotiations backdrop, the May readings on export and import orders were particularly weak, falling to 40.1 and 39.9, respectively. The new orders and employment sub-indices remain weak, with the dip in the headline index not helped by a fall in inventories, as companies respond to the hit from tariffs. The prices paid component remained elevated and is consistent with a pickup in core goods price inflation.
US construction spending fell by -0.45% MoM, seasonally adjusted, in April, pulled down by a -0.72% MoM, seasonally adjusted drop in private outlays. US construction spending peaked in December, and has fallen by -1.9%, seaonally adjusted, in the first four months of 2025.
President Trump clearly has no intention to roll back on his doubling of steel tariffs. On Truth Social this morning he declared he didn’t want America’s future to be built with “shoddy steel” from Shanghai, rather than the “strength and pride” of Pittsburgh steel.
The lift in tariff is creating another layer of uncertainty and tension. European articles suggest the lift in tariff doesn’t bode well for negotiations with the region. UK steelmakers call Trump doubling tariffs ‘another body blow’.
The steel and aluminium tariffs also apply to Canada, so they will likely elicit some form of retaliation from there. While US/China trade negotiations are deteriorating due to rare earth, student visas and tech restrictions, steel tariff will also affect China. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to speak this week, according to the White House.
Crude oil prices climbed more than 2% despite the announcement over the weekend that OPEC-Plus agreed to increase oil output for the third consecutive month. Supply will be increased by 411,000 barrels a day in July, the same as the preceding two months.
The increase in supply news was seemingly overwhelmed by geopolitical news that could have a greater impact on energy markets over coming months. The Ukraine drone attack on Russia-based airfields may have also renewed concerns that President Volodymyr Zelensky could target Russian oil installations.
Dow Jones Newswires also noted multiple media reports suggest a bipartisan effort by US Senators Lindsey Graham (R., South Carolina) and Richard Blumenthal (D., Conn.) to sanction countries that purchase Russian oil could be ready for this month’s G-7 summit in Alberta, Canada.
Reuters, on the other hand, reported Iran is likely to reject a US proposal, presented over the weekend, if so, this would increase the chances of Iran sanctions (Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of oil each day, around 4% of the global total).
The US data releases were weighing on the US equity market at the open, but a late rally led by big tech lifted the S&P500 and the NASDAQ back into the green. The S&P500 rose 0.4% and the NASDAG gained 0.7%. Nvidia led an over 1.5% rally in chipmakers while US steel and aluminium shares gained on President Trump’s pledge to double levies on the metals.
US Treasury yields were rising prior to the ISM data release with the softer than expected report only eliciting a short-lived pull back in yields. The move up in yields was probably not helped by the gains in oil prices while the price gains in the ISM probably didn’t help either.
The US Treasury curve lifted in an almost parallel fashion with yields up 4bps across the curve, the 10year now trades at 4.44% after recording on overnight high of 4.4676%.
In her daily rates publication, my colleague Skye Masters noted the general message from Fed speakers including Powell, Logan and Goolsbee was the Fed is in no hurry to resume easing policy.
Powell did not comment on the outlook for interest rates while Goolsbee said the FOMC can proceed with rates cuts if uncertainty around trade policy is resolved. Logan said the central bank can remain patient as it assesses risks to both inflation and unemployment. The US overnight swap index curve has trimmed Fed rate cut expectations, pricing around -50bps of cuts by year end (down from -55bps).
Gold finding strong buyers in Asia and Europe: Chris Weston, Pepperstone
Gold (and silver) have feasted on the USD’s weakness, with the intraday chart highlighting the influence the weaker USD had in driving gold to US$3381 on the day. The 50-day moving average proved to offer the bulls a solid platform last week and since then both spot and front-month futures have closed above the 23 May highs and on the highs.
We can talk about the various reasons to hold gold, and the countries where we are seeing the relative demand, but to me, it feels as though the gold market sniffs out a sustained move lower in the USD and a longer-term shift for the USD to revert to the long-run averages in some of the classic metrics such as PPP (Purchasing Power Parity).
The gold price reached a one month high overnight.
Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management
The market has entered a high-wire act, trading with no net, arms wide open, daring gravity to blink first. The left tail risk of a full-blown tariff barrage may have been priced out, but the right tail, some euphoric melt-up on AI mania or a Trump-Xi bromance feels increasingly limited by bloated multiples, and a growth narrative running on fumes.
Valuations are already puffed up like a hot-air balloon tethered to soft economic undercurrents, and the higher we float, the more traders scan the basket for leaks.
The SPX, meanwhile, is caught in a coiled spring between 5700 and 6150 — a range that mirrors the market’s bipolarity: hope for a dovish twist on trade or a Trump call versus the constant paranoia of macro data souring faster than milk left out in the July heat.
Markets have clipped the wings on both ends: the left tail’s tariff panic has been tranquillised, but the right tail’s moonshot is smothered under the gravity of bloated multiples and hopium-fueled growth projections.
What’s striking isn’t just the range, it’s the consensus forming around the same playbook which has gone from boutique to Broadway: long secular growth and fortress-balance-sheet megacaps, short the walking wounded in a world of 4.5% yields and terminally stalled growth.
The street is now chasing that exact setup with reckless abandon. Gross exposure is soaring, charts don’t lie, and last week’s notional long buying in U.S. info tech was the biggest in a decade. That’s not a drift; that’s a stampede.
Corporate news in Australia
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) CEO Nuno Matos is planning to meet RBA Governor Michelle Bullock in July with the bank encountering multiple regulatory issues.
-Optus has teamed up with Perplexity to offer free AI search subscriptions.
-Paladin Energy ((PDN)) reported encouraging drilling results at Patterson Lake South project in Saskatchewan, Canada.
-IPO candidate, Koala has halted plans due to US tariff uncertainty.
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) has secured $14bn in funding for Azek takeover and NYSE listing.
-Superhero has raised $11m for expansion of its wealth management division.
On the calendar today:
-AU 1Q BOP
-AU June RBA minutes
-CH May Caixin PMI
-EZ April Unemployment
-EZ May CPI
-US April construction spending
-ELDERS LIMITED ((ELD)) ex-div 18.00c (50%)
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3406.35 | + 90.95 | 2.74% |
| Silver (oz) | 34.93 | + 1.75 | 5.27% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.86 | + 0.16 | 3.31% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.12 | + 0.01 | 1.15% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.87 | – 0.00 | – 0.03% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.22 | + 0.03 | 2.33% |
| West Texas Crude | 63.03 | + 2.24 | 3.68% |
| Brent Crude | 65.07 | + 2.29 | 3.65% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 95.95 | – 3.17 | – 3.20% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 02 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8414.10 | -0.24% | -0.24% | 7.28% | 3.13% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley | ||
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| GMG | Goodman Group | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| IGO | IGO Ltd | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| PFP | Propel Funeral Partners | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| SOL | WH Soul Pattinson | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| TLC | Lottery Corp | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| WEB | Web Travel | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie | ||
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ - ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ELD - ELDERS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED