Daily Market Reports | 8:33 AM
This story features NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEC
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
After another double digit return for the ASX200 in fiscal 2025, the start of the new financial year is pointing to a softer opening for the Australian market.
US indices the S&P500 and Nasdaq reached new all time highs overnight.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8531.00 | – 6.00 | – 0.07% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8542.30 | + 28.10 | 0.33% |
| S&P500 | 6204.95 | + 31.88 | 0.52% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 20369.73 | + 96.28 | 0.47% |
| DJIA | 44094.77 | + 275.50 | 0.63% |
| S&P500 VIX | 16.73 | + 0.41 | 2.51% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.23 | – 0.05 | – 1.24% |
| USD Index | 96.40 | – 0.64 | – 0.65% |
| FTSE100 | 8760.96 | – 37.95 | – 0.43% |
| DAX30 | 23909.61 | – 123.61 | – 0.51% |
Good Morning,
Tariff turmoil is on the back burner as US retail investors continue to chase equities higher in the AI, financials and industrials trade.
As the USD continued to weaken, US stocks powered higher.
What happened overnight: Stepen Innes, SPI Asset Management
The S&P500 closed out 2Q 2025 like a freight train breaking through its own speed limit, another record high, another notch in the belt of one of the most aggressive snapbacks since late 2023.
Up nearly 25% from its April lows, the index steamrolled through walls of skepticism to reclaim control of the tape. The Nasdaq didn’t miss the party either, riding tech momentum to fresh all-time highs. This wasn’t some window-dressed bounce, it was a full-blown momentum breakout with institutional flow in the slipstream.
Tech was the main engine, again. Apple surged ahead of the pack, while Oracle exploded higher on a US$30 billion/year cloud pact; a deal that screams structural, not cyclical. Financials followed through as the Fed’s stress test cleared the runway for capital return. Monday’s move wrapped a month where the only real “correction” was portfolio managers correcting their underweights.
June’s been the ultimate pain trade, positioning too light, disbelief too high, and now a mechanical chase higher. The S&P gained over 5% for the month, the Nasdaq more than 6%, and even the Dow tagged along with a 4% move. With 3Q 2025 now underway and allocators still sitting light, this melt-up has room to roll.
Beneath the surface, though, macro flashpoints are still simmering. Tariff D-Day on July 9 is fast approaching. Canada flinched first, yanking its digital services tax to salvage negotiations. Japan is still stuck in neutral, slow-walking any meaningful auto or agricultural concessions. The EU is dangling a blanket 10% tariff deal, but hunting for carve-outs. Meanwhile, Trump’s playbook remains unpredictable but potent.
Despite the noise, the market keeps grinding higher. Breadth is broadening, earnings are edging up, inflation’s behaving, and rate cuts are getting priced in like it’s policy deja vu. Helping settle the twitchy long end, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made it clear he’s not about to flood the back end of the curve with duration, no appetite to launch a supply surge into a buyer’s strike. If anything, he’s leaning into the view that cooling inflation will let yields drift lower without a fight.
Yes, there’s a fork in the road: rate cuts without growth could spook the tape. But unless we see a real jobs stumble, the default setting remains “rate cuts equal boost juice”. Traders are running that well-trodden script until it breaks. And for now, it’s not just intact, it’s working.
As we enter the second half, the trade barrier wall of worry is losing bricks fast. The institutional crowd is still playing catch-up. If earnings cooperate and the macro environment doesn’t derail, this train may not slow until positioning is fully maximized. Steady rate cut vibes could herald in the start of yet another melt-up, and the tracks are greased.
The dollar posted its worst first-half since Nixon killed Bretton Woods in 1973. The greenback got smoked. The DXY collapsed over -10% YTD, its worst start to a year in 52 years, and fell off a cliff in 2Q, especially in June when Asian desks led the charge.
What started as a slow drip turned into a coordinated dollar dump. Whether today was a month-end rebalancing (likely with US stocks soaring in June) or a real macro crack, the result was the same: the dollar lost altitude like a busted drone in a headwind. If U.S. desks are finally catching up to the dollar exodus that Asia started weeks ago, the buck could be in for a world of hurt. If the Euro is going to take out 1.2000, July is the setup month.
Gold, curiously, didn’t catch the massive tailwind. After a blistering start to the year, it’s been stuck near record highs but unable to break out, even as the dollar unraveled beneath it. Technicals cracked a bit, briefly losing the 50DMA, but bounced at the broader uptrend channel. Still, for a metal that’s supposed to move on currency debasement and geopolitical unease, it’s looking more like a sleepy insurance policy than a hot trade into 3Q.
Bitcoin, by contrast, ripped. Three green months, with June the weakest, but still a record quarter close. Crypto’s proving it can play both sides; risk-on when stocks fly, macro hedge when fiat stumbles.
WTI crude got its own wall of worry: geopolitical chop, demand head-fakes, and U.S. supply resilience keeping it from catching fire. But the bounce is fragile with OPEC expected to flood the market yet again.
July now rolls in with all the classic summer setup: buybacks entering blackout, earnings season on deck, and a calendar stacked with macro tripwires. ISM, payrolls, the July 9 tariff pause expiry, it’s catalyst season. The Fed meets at month’s end, and while a July cut is off the table, September’s very much alive. A dovish tilt amid limp inflation and soft growth? That’s fuel.
Add to that the hyperscalers (GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN) reporting late July into August, earnings that will either reinforce the AI boom or raise red flags.
And then there’s the budget bill. Hill drama may drag into early August, but watch the market playbook: any whiff of fiscal grease and traders will front-run it.
Technically, July is the strongest month of the year, seasonally speaking, and the first half even better. But complacency breeds blind spots, and the stool holding this rally –buybacks, rate bets, earnings– gets one leg kicked out soon. When that happens, the August air pocket might feel a little too familiar.
One last macro note: U.S. households have tripled their equity exposure over the last 40 years without increasing their bond or cash holdings. That’s a lot of eggs in the same basket. If you’re not diversifying by region, sector, factor, and size at this point, you’re not managing risk, you’re rolling dice.
Corporate news in Australia
-Nine Entertainment’s ((NEC)) Stan has acquired Optus Sports assets and APL rights for -$20m
-Mineral Resources ((MIN)) sells Yilgarn Iron project
-DroneShield ((DRO)) has increased its pipeline to $2.41bn with a $9.7m Latin American deal
-Azek shareholders approve James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) takeover
-Private equity is looking at Kelsian Group’s ((KLS)) $200m of tourism assets
-Hong Kong investors are threatening to walk away from Star Entertainment Group’s ((SGR)) deal for the Queen St Wharf casino and hotel complex
On the calendar today:
-NZ May building permits
-XX Global manufacturing PMIs
-DUXTON FARMS LIMITED ((DBF)) ex-div 24c (85%)
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3314.95 | + 12.65 | 0.38% |
| Silver (oz) | 36.00 | – 0.20 | – 0.56% |
| Copper (lb) | 5.05 | – 0.04 | – 0.80% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.18 | + 0.00 | 0.10% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.81 | – 0.00 | – 0.07% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.25 | – 0.01 | – 1.07% |
| West Texas Crude | 64.98 | – 0.54 | – 0.82% |
| Brent Crude | 66.61 | – 0.19 | – 0.28% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 94.47 | – 0.02 | – 0.02% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 30 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8542.30 | 0.33% | 1.28% | 8.91% | 4.70% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| AMC | Amcor | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans | ||
| DRO | DroneShield | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Shaw and Partners |
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| NHF | nib Holdings | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| REH | Reece | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Morgans | ||
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com
FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On
Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms
CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DBF - DUXTON FARMS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DRO - DRONESHIELD LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KLS - KELSIAN GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEC - NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGR - STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED