Daily Market Reports | Jul 07 2025
This story features NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHF
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
After another strong market performance last week, ASX200 futures are signalling a flat open, ahead of tomorrow’s RBA decision and US tariff decisions.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8583.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8603.00 | + 7.20 | 0.08% |
| S&P500 | 6279.35 | + 51.93 | 0.83% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 20601.10 | + 207.97 | 1.02% |
| DJIA | 44828.53 | + 344.11 | 0.77% |
| S&P500 VIX | 17.48 | + 0.84 | 5.05% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.35 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| USD Index | 96.82 | + 0.02 | 0.02% |
| FTSE100 | 8822.91 | – 0.29 | – 0.00% |
| DAX30 | 23787.45 | – 146.68 | – 0.61% |
Good Morning,
US markets will emerge from a shortened July 4 holiday weekend with some confusion around the state of play with tariff implementation, and the intention to form the ‘America Party’ by Elon Musk over the weekend.
Australian investors will be looking to tomorrow’s 2.30pm RBA decision for further cash rate relief and the tone of the Statement of Monetary Policy.
Extract from Tony Sycamore, IG
US stock markets finished a holiday-shortened week on a high note, driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data and the House’s approval of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), which has since been signed into law by President Trump.
For the week, the small-cap Russell2000, which is most leveraged to domestic economic conditions including interest rates and employment, surged 3.52%. The Dow Jones gained 1,009 points to 27,230, up 2.30%, the S&P500 added 1.72%, and the Nasdaq100 finished 1.48% higher.
With US stock markets closed on Friday, attention shifted to European stock markets and tariffs as the market braced for the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs to expire. With only a handful of trade deals agreed upon, President Trump said the White House will send letters to countries specifying the tariff rates on imports to the US.
The exact total number of countries receiving letters has not been confirmed beyond the initial 10 to 12, but it could extend to over 100 based on statements from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Most countries are expected to receive at least a 10% reciprocal tariff rate, although others such as the EU and Japan may face higher rates.
In terms of what this means for markets, a 10-15% tariff rate on most if not all countries would likely be welcomed, as that rate is significantly lower than the tariff levels announced on Liberation Day. It would also provide the market and businesses with more certainty to move forward and focus on other drivers and concerns.
If tariff rates are higher, say above 20% on most countries, it would rattle markets to varying degrees depending on the extent of the increase. There are fears the EU and Japan might face tariff rates of 20-30%, given the US’s significant trade deficits with both.
In other news, OPEC-Plus surprised by opting for a larger-than-expected 548,000 bpd output hike for August, citing “healthy market fundamentals as reflected in the low inventories” .
Meanwhile, the messy split between Elon Musk and the White House over President Trump’s OBBB has led Musk to threaten to form a new “America Party”. Musk’s brief stint in politics earlier this year backfired badly, with Tesla’s share price falling about -20% over the first six months of 2025. Tesla shareholders will be hoping Musk drops his obsession with Trump and focuses on actions to stabilise and boost Tesla’s share price.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar is light this week, with attention likely to focus on the FOMC meeting minutes, which will reiterate the Fed’s “wait and see” stance, as well as initial jobless claims. The rates market is showing -18bps of rate cuts priced for the September FOMC meeting and a cumulative -55bps of cuts priced between now and the end of the year.
The ASX200 finished 88 points higher or 1.04% last week at 8603 marking its first weekly close above 8600 after recording its tenth week of gains over the past twelve weeks. Last week’s gains were supported by a rally on Wall Street and expectations of an RBA rate cut this coming week.
Healthcare up 3.28%, Real Estate up 3.07%, Materials up 2.91% and Consumer Discretionary up 1.94%; these sectors were the strongest last week. In contrast, the Financials traded down -0.74%, IT -0.16%, Telcos -0.12% and Industrials up 0.44%; these were the main drags.
This week, the key event on the local economic calendar is Tuesday’s RBA Board Meeting. At its last meeting in May, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its official cash rate by -25bp, taking it to 3.85%. The rate cut was widely expected after the Q1 2025 inflation report showed both trimmed mean and headline inflation fell to within the bank’s 2-3% inflation target range.
Since then, the case for further monetary policy easing has strengthened. This includes a soft May CPI report, where the core measure of inflation, the annual trimmed mean, fell to 2.4% YoY in May from 2.8%, marking the lowest rate since November 2021.
Meanwhile, Q1 GDP data released in June showed the Australian economy grew at just 0.2% QoQ, for an annual rate of 1.3%. Both readings were weaker than expected and the annual rate remains well below the 2.75%-3.25% growth rate we had become accustomed to before the covid shock.
These factors, combined with ongoing concerns around tariffs and trade, have negated any concerns the RBA may have held about a tight labour market.
As a result, we expect the RBA will cut rates by -25bp on Tuesday, taking its official cash rate back to 3.60%. Its forward guidance is expected to sound dovish, leaving the door open for further rate cuts into year end.
The Australian interest rate market starts the day pricing in -24bps (97% chance) of a -25bps rate cuts for this week and a cumulative -77bps of RBA rate cuts between now and the end of the year.
Comments in advance of RBA meeting: Carl Ang MFS Investment Management
We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver a dovish insurance cut of -25bps this week.
Given the ever-shifting shifting balance of risks and the heightened uncertainty it creates for hiring and investment in the Australian economy, more RBA cuts are set to follow. As such, a 3.1% terminal rate by early 2026 remains the base case for this RBA cutting cycle.
A -50bps cut at this RBA meeting appears to be a remote possibility given the RBA’s stated preference for a cautious and predictable approach to policy normalisation.
Extract NAB’s Markets Today Research
RBA aside downunder, this week is all about the end of July 8 expiry (ex-China) of the 90 day moratorium on all but the 10% baseline tariffs Trump (and sectoral tariffs) first announced on April 2.
On Saturday, President Trump told reporters “I signed some letters and they’ll go out on Monday probably 12,” adding that the missives involve “different amounts of money, different amounts of tariffs and somewhat different statements.” Asked to identify the countries, he said, “I have to announce it on Monday.”
Recall Trump said last Thursday that letters would start to go out on Friday which countries would have to start paying on August 1: “10 or 12”, with additional letters coming “over the next few days” and “they’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70% tariffs to 10 and 20% tariffs.”
Japan’s top negotiators Ryosei Akazawa reportedly had two 45-60 minute calls with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick last Thursday and Saturday described as an in depth exchange of views, while EU and US officials will reportedly keep negotiating through the weekend with the EU side reporting progress towards an Agreement in Principal” which appear to centre on acceptance of a 10% baseline tariff rate without drawing EU retaliation, but with carve outs or quotas in some sectors (autos, pharmaceuticals, alcohol, etc) potentially in return for EU commitments on more direct investment into the US.
In the absence of any agreements or determination by the US that negotiations are continuing in good faith, the Japan tariff rate is due to revert to the 24% rate announced on April 2, and for EU imports to 20%, with sectoral tariff rates remaining in place at the higher rates of 25% on autos and 50% on steel and aluminium.
Corporate news in Australia
-Barings has acquired a majority stake in Swift Storage for $200m, as it moves into the Australian self-storage sector.
-nib Holdings ((NHF)) has initiated the sale of its travel division with Zurich Insurance touted as the probable buyer.
-Goodman Group ((GMG)) is reported as setting up a US$.27bn unlisted vehicle to concentrate on Honk Kong data centres, backed by global pension funds and private investors.
On the calendar today:
-AU June ANZ Job Ads
-JP May Earnings
-EZ May retail sales
-COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) ex-div 15c (100%)
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3346.50 | + 10.00 | 0.30% |
| Silver (oz) | 37.14 | + 0.09 | 0.24% |
| Copper (lb) | 5.06 | – 0.07 | – 1.34% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.18 | – 0.01 | – 0.48% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.86 | – 0.06 | – 0.85% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.24 | – 0.01 | – 0.62% |
| West Texas Crude | 66.49 | – 0.66 | – 0.98% |
| Brent Crude | 68.30 | – 0.58 | – 0.84% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 96.24 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 04 Jul 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jul) | Quarter To Date (Jul-Sep) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8603.00 | 1.04% | 0.71% | 0.71% | 5.44% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| AFG | Australian Finance Group | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| ARB | ARB Corp | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
| ARF | Arena REIT | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| CMM | Capricorn Metals | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| DMP | Domino’s Pizza Enterprises | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi | ||
| DXS | Dexus | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| EMR | Emerald Resources | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
| GEM | G8 Education | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| HLI | Helia Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
| HMC | HMC Capital | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| HUB | Hub24 | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| MPL | Medibank Private | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| MTO | Motorcycle Holdings | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Morgans |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| PME | Pro Medicus | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| PPM | Pepper Money | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| PPT | Perpetual | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| PTM | Platinum Asset Management | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| TLC | Lottery Corp | Downgrade to Sell from Buy | Citi |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CKF - COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHF - NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED