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After all of the good news in June, uranium equities might be heading for consolidation as the U308 spot price slips on Sprott completing its buying.
-Sprott Phyical Uranium Trust to the rescue in June
-Short interests race for cover in Australian uranium stocks
-Dwindling buying from Sprott could result in U308 price weakness
-Brokers stick to bullish longer-term outlook
By Danielle Ecuyer
A great month in June with macro tailwinds
June was a bumper month for the U3O8 spot price, which rose US$6.50/lb over the period to US$78.50/lb, equaling a 1.9% weekly gain.
There was a plethora of good news to support the longer-term macro picture for the nuclear energy industry and uranium, with industry consultant TradeTech highlighting Meta’s 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation and Amazon’s US$20bn investment in two data centres, with one to be constructed next to the Susquehanna Nuclear Power Plant.
The World Bank also removed its long-standing ban on funding nuclear power projects and, on June 16, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) announced its intentions to raise US$100m, which was up-scaled by underwriter Canaccord Genuity to US$200m, with the net proceeds used to acquire U3O8 in the spot market.
As at June end, Sprott had acquired over 1.4mlbs of U3O8 in eight transactions, including, TradeTech reports, 300klbs at US$78.50/lb on the last day of June, giving the Trust 67.7mlbs of U3O8 at a net asset value of US$5.4bn. An additional 1.2mlbs were acquired by other parties over June.
TradeTech’s Mid-term price indicator rose to US$83/lb from US$75/lb at May 31, a rise of just over 10%, and TradeTech’s Long-term price indicator remained at US$80/lb.
As last week ended on a quiet note due to the US July 4 holiday, TradeTech’s July 4 U3O8 spot price indicator was US$76/lb, a decline of -US$2.65/lb on the previous week (June 27) and a decline of -US$2.50/lb from June 30.
There was one transaction for 100klbs at US$76/lb for delivery in July at Orano’s Comurhex facility in France last Thursday.
Short interests race for cover
As indicated by the Betashares Global Uranium ETF ((URMN)), demand for exposure to uranium stocks continued in June, with the ETF up by over 12% at one stage. Underlying the ETF index, share price moves for specific stocks were considerably higher. Deep Yellow ((DYL)) shares advanced by 21.24%, Boss Energy ((BOE)) rose 17.66%, and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) gained 15.56% on June 16, coinciding with the Sprott Trust equity raising.
Short interest, according to the latest ASIC data as at June 26, shows Paladin has become the most shorted stock on the ASX200 at 16.08%, up from 15.79% a week earlier and 15.15% the month previously.
Boss has moved to second from first position at 15.07% against 16.33% and 19.75% respectively a week and a month prior.
Deep Yellow moved to twelfth position at 9.01% from 10.89% a month earlier, and shorts in Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) went down to 5.4% from 7.64% a week earlier and 8.48% a month ago.
U308 spot price likely to fallback
While Boss received a downgrade from UBS to Sell from Buy due to the 80% rise in the share price over the calendar year to date on June 25, Macquarie joined the chorus calling for a tactical downgrade on the stock to Neutral from Outperform, again emphasising the strong share price performance and a possible weakening in the U3O8 spot price, which is likely to weigh on ASX-listed uranium equities.
Boss’s share price is currently discounting a US$75/lb U3O8 price, which the Macquarie analyst believes is too high, as the Sprott Trust’s buying in the spot market completes over the next one to two weeks.
Macquarie suggests no more buying from the Sprott Trust is likely to result in the spot price moving back to levels at which utilities will re-emerge for carry trades, thought to be around the US$70/lb level, or some -8% to -10% below current pricing.
The target price on Boss is lowered by -3.2% to $4.45 on the back of a change in the analyst’s valuation calculation.
Latest U308 price forecasts from brokers
On June 25, UBS raised its U3O8 price forecast by 7% for FY26 to US$75.50 from US$70/lb.
Barrenjoey is the latest broker to raise its long-term uranium price propjection to US$90/lb from US$80/lb, with expectations of a “tightening” between supply and demand.
The latter points to TradeTech’s mid-term price indicator rising to US$83/lb at the end of June as a precursor to the long-term price advancing over the second half of 2025.
Again emphasising the recent spate of positive news for the sector, including announcements from China for ten new reactors; President Trump’s Executive Orders in May to increase the rate of nuclear power deployment; and Westinghouse in discussions with the US Government for ten new nuclear plants.
France has also announced plans to extend the operational life of 20 of its 1,300 MW nuclear reactors beyond their original 40-year lifespan. This initiative follows approval from the French nuclear safety authority, ASN, and involves an estimated investment of EUR6bn by EDF, the state-owned utility.
The upgrades will enhance safety standards to align with those of newer European Pressurised Reactor (EPR) models and are part of President Macron’s strategy to boost the country’s nuclear capacity, including refurbishing existing reactors and constructing at least six new ones.
Barrenjoey highlights, as a rule of thumb, a standard AP1000 nuclear reactor consumes around 500klbs of U3O8 in addition to first fills of circa 1,000-1,500klbs.
Exacerbating supply issues, new producers are anticipated to experience ramp-up issues, including Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) downgrading production guidance for 2025-2027 at its March quarter update.
Other producers, Paladin and Kazatomprom, have issued their own downgrades in 2024/25. In total the industry’s supply loss is approaching -15mlbs for 2024-2025, which equates to -8%-9% of global demand.
Global uranium demand stands at around 175mlbs currently and is forecast to grow at a 5% compound average growth rate to 230mlbs by 2030.
Mine supply is estimated to grow at circa 4% on a compound average rate to around 205mlbs by 2030, hence the expected deficit as new producers such as Deep Yellow and Bannerman defer investment decisions until the U3O8 price moves higher.
U3O8 spot price forecasts at Barrenjoey stand at US$81/lb in 2025, US$85/lb in 2026, and US$90/lb for the long term, sitting above consensus estimates by 4%, 4%, and 22%, respectively.
Barrenjoey’s target price for Boss, which is rated Underweight, has lifted to $4.20 from $3.80, and Paladin is rated Neutral with a new target price set at $8.15, up from $7.10.
Deep Yellow is flagged as an emerging uranium play with a Neutral rating and a $1.80 target price.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 04/07/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 04/07/2025 | 0.1600 |  – 5.71% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 04/07/2025 | 0.0300 | – 6.90% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  133.3% |
|
| AKN | 04/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 04/07/2025 | 0.0500 | 6.52% |
$0.17 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 04/07/2025 | 0.5800 | – 2.54% |
$0.67 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 04/07/2025 | 3.1700 | – 5.11% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 48.3% |
|
| BOE | 04/07/2025 | 4.0200 | -12.42% |
$4.75 | $1.99 | 229.9 | $4.166 | 3.6% |
| BSN | 04/07/2025 | 0.0180 | 12.50% |
$0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 04/07/2025 | 0.0200 | -30.00% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 04/07/2025 | 0.1100 | 12.24% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.100 | – 9.1% |
|
| CXU | 04/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 04/07/2025 | 0.0700 | 7.14% |
$0.31 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 04/07/2025 | 1.7200 | 1.20% |
$1.79 | $0.75 | -1700.0 | $1.690 | – 1.7% |
| EL8 | 04/07/2025 | 0.2900 | – 6.25% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 04/07/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 04/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 04/07/2025 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 04/07/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 04/07/2025 | 0.0900 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 04/07/2025 | 0.0900 | 12.50% |
$1.03 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 04/07/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 04/07/2025 | 0.7900 | 2.60% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 04/07/2025 | 0.1900 | 0.00% | $0.37 | $0.13 | $0.330 | 73.7% |
|
| MEU | 04/07/2025 | 0.0400 | 7.89% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 04/07/2025 | 10.3800 | – 2.17% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.300 | 18.5% |
|
| ORP | 04/07/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 04/07/2025 | 7.7500 | – 4.21% |
$14.28 | $3.93 | -212.4 | $8.536 | 10.1% |
| PEN | 04/07/2025 | 0.6200 | 0.00% | $2.34 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 04/07/2025 | 4.1700 | 1.66% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 55.9% |
|
| TOE | 04/07/2025 | 0.1900 | 5.13% |
$0.38 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 04/07/2025 | 0.0200 | – 9.09% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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