Daily Market Reports | 8:35 AM
This story features LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LIC
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US and European markets moved higher witth big Tech, notably AI GPU behemoth Nvidia, taking Nasdaq to a new record high.
CNN’s Fear & Greed index is at Extreme Greed, but markets are feeding on FOMO and ignoring Trump’s tariff letters.
After a day of weakness yesterday, ASX200 futures are pointing to a 0.5% rise today.
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World Overnight |
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| SPI Overnight | 8575.00 | + 45.00 | 0.53% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8538.60 | – 52.10 | – 0.61% |
| S&P500 | 6263.26 | + 37.74 | 0.61% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 20611.34 | + 192.88 | 0.94% |
| DJIA | 44458.30 | + 217.54 | 0.49% |
| S&P500 VIX | 15.94 | – 0.87 | – 5.18% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.34 | – 0.07 | – 1.65% |
| USD Index | 97.20 | + 0.06 | 0.06% |
| FTSE100 | 8867.02 | + 12.84 | 0.15% |
| DAX30 | 24549.56 | + 342.65 | 1.42% |
Good Morning,
Trade uncertainty and general profit taking on light volumes took the ASX200 down -52pts yesterday led by the Property sector and weakness in miners.
NAB Markets Today Research extract
In equity markets, the S&P500 was 0.6% higher and the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, spurred by big tech. Nvidia extended this year’s surge to more than 20% and the stock has rebounded more than 70% from its 4 April low and (intraday) became the first company to hit a US$4tr valuation milestone. AI spending has proved resilient, despite the DeepSeek scare. The Euro Stoxx600 index rose 0.8% while Germany’s DAX index rose 1.4% to a fresh record high.
US 10yr Treasurys showed their first gain in 5 days, with yields lower and curves modestly flatter. A solid auction for US$39bn of new notes supported the move. The 10yr yield is -6bp lower at 4.34%, while the 2yr is -4bp lower at 3.85%. A US$22 billion sale of 30-year bonds is set for today.
The dollar is little changed on the DXY and currency moves across the G10 currencies are mostly muted. CHF and JPY led gains against the dollar despite the generally positive risk backdrop supported by lower US yields, but even so were up only 0.2%. The AUD is little chaged at 0.6532, having seen a range of 0.6510 to 0.6548 intraday. The USD gained 2.5% against the Brazilian Real.
A new batch of tariff letters avoided major US trading partners and included a 30% rate on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, with 25% duties on products from Brunei and Moldova and a 20% rate on goods from the Philippines. Once again, rates were near those announced on 2 April, though countries with initial very high rates near or above 40% have generally seen a lower rate in the letters. The WSJ reported it was Bessent and other advisors’ advice they were close to some deals that convinced Trump to extend the earlier 9 July deadline, with the letters intended to keep negotiating pressure up.
More interesting are the letters we haven’t seen, with India, the EU, and Taiwan conspicuous examples. EU trade chief Sefcovic told European lawmakers the two sides had made “good progress” on the text of a joint statement, which he said could pave the way for a future, fully fledged EU-US trade agreement.
While the letters have been a restatement of the intention to increase tariffs for those countries that saw reciprocal tariffs above the 10% baseline in the 2 April announcements, Trump said he will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil.
That’s notable in that Brazil had otherwise been hit with only the baseline 10% tariff, but it looks to be an outcome of specific grievances with Brazil (Trump cited the treatment of the country’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, in his letter to the country) rather than an indication the current letter process has broadened. Even so, it is a reminder of Trumps penchant for tariffs as a tool against a wide range of grievances, trade fairness or otherwise.
The FOMC minutes got little market reaction, largely confirming what was already known about the spread of Committee views. Two indicated support for a rate cut as soon as the next meeting (Bowman and Waller had already publicly declared as much), but that view wasn’t shared more broadly with most concerned about the prospect of persistent inflation pressure from tariffs.
A ‘few’ expected a one-time lift in the price level, but ‘most’ noted the risks of more persistent effects. Several participants commented the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level.
The RBNZ held rates as expected and reintroduced an easing bias into their communication, noting that if things progress as anticipated, it “expects to lower the Official Cash Rate further.” Our colleagues over at BNZ see another cut in August and a low in the cash rate at 2.75%. The NZD initially spiked higher but that didn’t sustain. Markets are about 50% priced for August and another cut is about fully priced by October.
Elsewhere, China CPI rose 0.1% yoy after -0.1%, above consensus for -0.1%. The core measure (ex food and energy) ticked higher to 0.7%. That lift was driven by core goods, which like consumption numbers, look to be getting a bit of a boost from the consumer goods trade-in scheme that is spurring purchases.
That is not translating into stronger producer prices, however. PPI was -3.6% yoy, after -3.3% and lower than -3.2% expected. Metal and energy prices seeing the fastest declines but finished manufactures prices continue to fall. Durable consumer goods continue to fall -2.5% to -3% annually.
Tariffs may be one factor, but that pace of deflation is similar to pre-tariff pace and in the context of overcapacity. US CPI, PPI and import prices for June next week are next on the roster as analysts look the beginnings of tariff impacts to show up in the hard inflation data.
Markets keep sailing: Extract Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management
The June Minutes read like a central bank steering with one hand on the wheel and one eye on the horizon; cautious, watchful, and in no hurry to lean forward. The Fed sees the tariff smoke, but it hasn’t called the fire brigade yet. Inflation uncertainty loomed large in the discussion, with a clear divide: a few saw tariffs as a one-off flare-up, but most warned of stickier, more persistent pressure. It’s not a panic, but it’s not a shrug, either.
No one dissented on the June hold, marking the fourth straight meeting without movement. But a couple of members cracked the door open for a July cut, no shock, given recent dovish hums from Waller and Bowman. Still, the prevailing rhythm remains slow and deliberate. Most on the Committee still expect some easing this year, just not at a sprint.
The takeaway? The Fed’s not chasing shadows. It’s sitting tight, waiting for the fog of trade policy to clear. September remains the likeliest inflection point, barring a data curveball. Until then, Powell & Co. are content to keep their powder dry and their options open.
The AI Engine That Refuses to Stall. Nvidia has just crossed the US$4 trillion finish line, leaving the rest of the tech pack eating its silicon dust. It’s a moment dripping with symbolism. Silicon Valley’s ultimate chipmaker now wears the crown once reserved for consumer titans. From US$1 trillion in mid-2023 to US$4 trillion today, the rise hasn’t just been exponential, it’s been parabolic, turbocharged by an AI boom that makes the dotcom era look quaint.
What’s driving it? A potent cocktail: Trump’s trade detente with China cracked the ice, while sovereign wealth deals across the Middle East and Europe poured rocket fuel into the engine. But it’s Nvidia’s core dominance in AI compute that’s kept the wheels spinning. When Big Tech wants to build brains, they call Jensen.
CEO Jensen Huang has built a semi-religious cult around AI, and investors are lapping it up. His May earnings call was a sermon: robotics, AI, trillion-dollar TAMs, and the chips to power them all. With 70% quarterly revenue growth and a forecasted US$200bn top line this year, Nvidia isn’t just riding the AI wave, it’s building the damn pipeline.
Even a brief stumble earlier this year, triggered by Chinese upstart DeepSeek and tariff worries, proved to be little more than a pit stop. Now, as US and global demand re-accelerates and GPU supply chains normalize, Nvidia’s margins remain regal: over 70% gross and US$105bn in forecasted net income. The fact that insiders just unloaded -US$1bn in stock barely made a dent when you’re up 40% since May, a little profit-taking is just part of the scenery.
The real story here is durability. Nvidia has become the linchpin of AI infrastructure, the rails on which this entire tech transformation rides. While others build the apps, Nvidia prints the shovels. It’s no longer just about ChatGPT, it’s about every cloud provider, every LLM lab, and every sovereign AI stack looking to future-proof their digital backbone.
This isn’t Nvidia as a stock. It’s Nvidia as an AI standard. And unless something upends the very trajectory of compute, this train still has steam.
Corporate news in Australia
-VCAT ruling on Lifestyle Communities ((LIC)) sent the share down over -37% yesterday, the biggest fall in the ASX200 index.
-AGL Energy ((AGL)) has acquired a newly approved solar project in SA for $7.2m from developed Photon Energy from the Netherlands.
-Capricorn Metals ((CMM)) has bought the Claw gold project in WA from BPM Minerals ((BPM)) for $1.5m.
-GPG Partners ((GQG)) announced 2% FUM growth for June with US$1.5bn in inflows.
On the calendar today:
-NZ May net immigration
-JP June PPI
-NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Qtrly Report
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3323.00 | + 9.69 | 0.29% |
| Silver (oz) | 36.57 | – 0.33 | – 0.88% |
| Copper (lb) | 5.54 | + 0.03 | 0.56% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.18 | + 0.00 | 0.41% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.73 | – 0.05 | – 0.77% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.25 | + 0.01 | 0.55% |
| West Texas Crude | 68.29 | + 0.08 | 0.12% |
| Brent Crude | 70.13 | + 0.17 | 0.24% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 95.32 | – 0.23 | – 0.24% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 09 Jul 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jul) | Quarter To Date (Jul-Sep) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8538.60 | -0.75% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 4.65% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| A2M | a2 Milk Co | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| AMP | AMP | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| BOE | Boss Energy | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett | ||
| CBO | Cobram Estate Olives | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | Upgrade to Hold from Trim | Morgans |
| COF | Centuria Office REIT | Upgrade to Hold from Trim | Morgans |
| DMP | Domino’s Pizza Enterprises | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| DXC | Dexus Convenience Retail REIT | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| DXI | Dexus Industria REIT | Upgrade to Accumulate from Trim | Morgans |
| GMG | Goodman Group | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| HUB | Hub24 | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| QAL | Qualitas | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| STO | Santos | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
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