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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
As a seasonally soft period approaches and Sprotts’ buying finishes, sellers were back aggressively in the U308 spot market.
-Sprott Trust impact fades as spot U3O8 retreats to pre-raise levels
-Kazakhstan tariffs, TradeTech data stir near-term uncertainty
-Broker downgrades, cost signals temper sentiment on Boss Energy
Bullish outlook fades as inventory building winds up
After all the excitement in the U3O8 sector in late June following the US$200m Sprott Physical Uranium Trust equity raising, and subsequent rise in the spot price as the trust entered the market, it seems spot U3O8 has quickly reverted back to its prior moribund state.
E&P’s latest research highlights the spot U3O8 price has receded to levels below the initial Sprott announcement and there are increasing concerns the price will remain under pressure as the circa 2.5mlb inventory purchase program comes to an end around mid-July.
The June-August period is also seasonally softer in terms of utility contracting activity and the broker believes the market at this stage is relatively well supplied. Boss Energy ((BOE)) recently locked in forward contract pricing ahead of further price weakness.
The latest update from industry consultants TradeTech substantiates the view, with the spot price indicator declining by -US$4/lb last week to US$72/lb as sellers were keen to offload and lower the price in order to facilitate transactions.
TradeTech reports six transactions were concluded over the week, with 100klbs last Monday at US$75.25/lb for August delivery at Orano’s Comurhex facility, with another 100klbs on Tuesday at US$74/lb for July delivery to the same facility.
A further two transactions followed on Wednesday for Comurhex (100klbs at US$71.50/lb) July delivery and another party for 50klbs also at US$71.50/lb.
TradeTech’s spot price indicator is sitting US$9/lb above the 2025 low of US$63/lb, with the consultants’ Mid-term price indicator at US$83/lb (one transaction last week and no new demand) and Long-term price indicator at US$80/lb.
For now, Trump’s tariffs won’t impact on Kazakh exports
President Trump’s tariff letters also found Kazakhstan as a recipient, with a government official announcing the President had assigned a 25% duty on all exports to the US, of which U3O8 is a major component. This compares to the April mandate of 27%.
TradeTech cites commentary from the Kazakhstan Ministry the measures will not impact around 95% of the exports to the US, as uranium falls under the exemption for strategic commodities.
Looking ahead, E&P forecasts the U3O8 spot price to rise to US$75/lb on average in the second half of 2025 before slipping back to US$70/lb, which is the analyst’s long-term price assumption.
The base case outlook for U3O8 is a “balanced” market in 2025 with upside surplus to around 2%-3%, or circa 46mlbs in 2026/27.
A potential supply-side disruption could swing the outlook, with Kazatomprom’s upcoming 1H2025 result on August 22 likely to offer more insights into supply guidance from the all-important producer for the balance of 2025 and into 2026.
A key issue will be the supply of sulphuric acid, which was an issue in 2024. At this stage, E&P is forecasting Kazakh production of 63.5mlbs, the midpoint of guidance, and then lifting to 71.5mlbs in 2026 with the ramp-up of new growth projects.
Sulphuric acid supply disruptions are not anticipated, with EuroChem’s plant due to come on stream in 2026.
In terms of sensitivity to changes in production, E&P estimates a decline of production by -10% would underpin a slight market deficit of around -4% for 2025 and -2% for 2026.
Short interests slip again but remain large for Paladin
While the ASIC short interest data is in the rear-view mirror up to July 3, the interest has continued to subside.
Notably, Boss Energy has slipped from number one to third position and was down a further -1.18% over the previous week to 13.89% from 15.07%.
Shorts in Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) declined by -1.46% to 3.93% and for Deep Yellow ((DYL)) by -0.61% to 8.4% from 9.01% (in eleventh position) and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) sits at fourteenth at 7.88%.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) continues to carry the highest percentage of short interests on the ASX at 16.37%.
Latest broker updates
Shaw and Partners continues to like Paladin with a Buy rating and $10.10 target price. Post the wet weather events in March, commissioning of Langer Heinrich has restarted and the analyst expects production of 900klbs in the June quarter, which would bring the FY25 production to 2.92mlbs, within a “whisker” of management’s previously withdrawn guidance.
E&P highlights the Boss’ share price has outperformed Paladin by around 85% in 2025 but under-performed by circa -23% since the start of June. Paladin’s probable removal from the ASX100 index (confirmed this month) and relative value differential are cited as two plausible reasons for the rotation.
E&P is seeking more evidence in the upcoming June quarter update of performance before considering upgrading its rating. The CEO transition is also highlighted for potential near-term risks and possibly more conservative 2026 guidance as well as a re-basing of Langer Heinrich’s mine targets.
While Boss is preferred over Paladin, there is some risk Boss’ cost guidance for Honeymoon moves higher, with industry feedback pointing to increased reagent consumption which is offsetting cost savings. This could lift long-term cost forecasts, with the analyst’s current estimate at $33/lb from FY27 onwards.
The broker is seeking a more attractive entry point for investors looking to establish and build uranium exposure. Boss is rated Neutral with a $3.20 target and Paladin has a Negative rating and $5 target.
Paladin is due to announce its June quarter update on July 23 and Boss on July 28.
Ord Minnett downgraded Boss to Hold from Buy, lowering its target to $4.10 from $6 following the unwinding of short positions to 14% recently from 26%.
The lower target price reflects a higher AUD-USD assumption as well as the removal of the $1.50 premium from the short squeeze.
Boss has extended the repayment of its 100klb uranium loan to Alta Mesa, which is 30% owned and not yet cash flow positive, and loaned another US$3.6m.
Macquarie highlights Deep Yellow has completed a three-month mini-pilot for Mulga Rock, which will form part of the revised definitive feasibility study flagged for mid-2026.
The company has already raised U3O8 resources to 71.2mlbs from 56.7mlbs in Mulga Rock East and emphasises further upside from an extended mine life, a 3.5mlb per annum operation based on 85% recoveries, and critical mineral credits.
The broker estimates around 70% of Sprott Physical Uranium Trust’s capital raising has been deployed, with around 0.7m-0.8mlbs remaining, which may be completed next week.
Macquarie forecasts a higher than previously estimated loss of -$17m for FY25 on higher costs, while making positive adjustments to EPS forecasts further out.
The stock retains an Outperform rating, with shovel-ready Tumas awaiting an improvement in term prices expected later in 2025 and Mulga Rock having the potential to achieve 7-plus mlbs scale. Target lifts 21% to $2.05.
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For more reading on U308 at FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/08/uranium-week-u3o8-spot-price-poised-to-fall/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/01/uranium-week-ai-tech-fuses-with-nuclear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/24/uranium-week-up-by-12-looking-for-more/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 11/07/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 11/07/2025 | 0.1600 |  – 3.23% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 11/07/2025 | 0.0200 | -23.08% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  250.0% |
|
| AKN | 11/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 11/07/2025 | 0.0700 | 32.08% |
$0.16 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 11/07/2025 | 0.5500 | – 5.17% |
$0.67 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 11/07/2025 | 2.8000 | -10.93% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 67.9% |
|
| BOE | 11/07/2025 | 3.5800 | -12.53% |
$4.75 | $1.99 | 213.6 | $3.894 | 8.8% |
| BSN | 11/07/2025 | 0.0180 | 11.11% |
$0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 11/07/2025 | 0.0170 | 17.65% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 11/07/2025 | 0.1100 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | ||
| CXU | 11/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 11/07/2025 | 0.0900 | 21.62% |
$0.31 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 11/07/2025 | 1.6900 | – 4.99% |
$1.80 | $0.75 | -342.0 | $1.807 | 6.9% |
| EL8 | 11/07/2025 | 0.2600 | -13.79% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 11/07/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 11/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 11/07/2025 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 11/07/2025 | 0.0600 | -14.29% |
$0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 11/07/2025 | 0.0800 | – 8.05% |
$0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 11/07/2025 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $1.03 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 11/07/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 11/07/2025 | 0.8500 | 1.27% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 11/07/2025 | 0.1800 | -10.53% |
$0.36 | $0.13 | $0.330 | 83.3% |
|
| MEU | 11/07/2025 | 0.0400 | – 2.44% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 11/07/2025 | 9.9900 | – 3.98% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.300 | 23.1% |
|
| ORP | 11/07/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 11/07/2025 | 7.1700 | – 9.77% |
$13.76 | $3.93 | -196.5 | $8.536 | 19.0% |
| PEN | 11/07/2025 | 0.6200 | 0.00% | $2.30 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 11/07/2025 | 4.2000 | – 3.61% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 54.8% |
|
| TOE | 11/07/2025 | 0.2000 | 0.00% | $0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 11/07/2025 | 0.0200 | – 9.09% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BMN - BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED