Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Uranium market darling Boss Energy dropped a FY26 guidance bomb on the market, with shares plumbing a 52-week low and putting a sour edge on a reasonable week for the sector.
-Paladin and Boss hit by price misses and cautious guidance
-Deep Yellow progresses but awaits higher U308 prices
-U308 spot price resilient, with utilities active in mid to long-term markets
-UK government pushes ahead with plans for a new two unit nuclear facility
-Short interests plateau for now
By Danielle Ecuyer
Australian uranium quarterly updates disappoint investors
Australia’s two favoured uranium producers, Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and Boss Energy ((BOE)), have been, unfortunately for investors, the cause of some considerable downside stock price frights.
Paladin’s June quarter update included both positives and negatives. Overall, the miner reported a strong update based on production and cash costs, with Canaccord Genuity highlighting a rise of 33% in production on the prior quarter, which was better than expected.
The standout disappointment for analysts was the average realised price at US$55.6/lb, which Citi attributed to the timing and mix of contract deliveries. While disappointing, this is not viewed as a structural problem.
Morgan Stanley explains the realised price was -20% below its own estimate and -17.6% lower than consensus, with the FY25 realised price achieved at US$65.7/lb.
Paladin has 13 off-take contracts, up from 12 in the previous quarter, for 24.1mlb of U3O8 contracted to 2030.
Looking to FY26 guidance of 4-4.5mlbs for production, Shaw and Partners believes management has been conservative, although Macquarie observes guidance was still higher than consensus, with capex forecast in line with the broker’s estimate.
Citi attributes the selloff in Paladin’s shares to weaker realised prices and “disappointing” FY26 guidance.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers’ consensus target price sits at $8.986, with seven Buy or equivalent ratings on the stock.
While Paladin shares have retreated from recent highs by just over -15%, Boss shareholders are bound to be licking some unfortunate wounds, with that share price declining nearly -44% on the day of its June quarter update.
For context, Boss shares are now trading below the Liberation Day tariff lows around $2.
While Honeymoon has tracked above expectations for most of FY25, the 4Q25 update was nothing short of disappointing, most notably for the question marks raised over the miner’s ability to achieve nameplate capacity.
Citi explains the quarter production was better than expected at 349,188lbs of U3O8, 7% above its own forecast and 4% above consensus.
Sales of 100klbs were notably lower than production and reflected management’s strategy to not engage with the market, as the U3O8 price is viewed as “fundamentally” undervalued.
FY26 production guidance at 1.6mlb came in below Morgan Stanley’s estimate by -1.8% and some -6% below consensus. Macquarie views FY26 guidance as -7% below forecast and based on nine wellfields in operation by June 2026 at Honeymoon and East Kalkaroo.
Guided unit costs of $41–$45/lb at Honeymoon are well above forecast at $35/lb for Macquarie and $37/lb for consensus. Guided capex is also more than anticipated at -$56m–$62m, with additional project and infrastructure costs the negative surprise.
East Kalkaroo and long-term capacity are adding to the general disappointment.
Macquarie highlights Boss has “identified potential challenges that may arise in achieving nameplate capacity,” which is “largely due to the potential for less continuity of mineralisation and leachability.“
The rise in cash costs resulted from an unexpected decline in average tenor and optimised lixiviant chemistry (lixiviant is injected into the ground to dissolve uranium from the ore body), Citi explains.
Morgan Stanley expects “meaningful” EPS downgrades for the stock as analysts update views and projections in the aftermath.
Following on from Citi’s first impressions, the broker lowers its earnings forecasts for Boss Energy by -33% and -13% for FY26/FY27 on higher unit costs. A rise in sustaining capex and long-term costs lowers the estimated NPV by -14% to $2.65.
Due to the sharp share price fall, the stock remains Buy rated, with a decline in the target price to $2.70.
Shaw and Partners observes Boss’ 4Q25 update was broadly in line with expectations, excluding sales of only 100klbs which were below forecast and largely underpinned a downgrade in FY25 earnings (EBITDA) by -16% from the analyst.
Production guidance for FY26 was as anticipated at 1.6mlbs, but cash cost guidance at US$27–US$29/lb is higher than Shaw and Partners’ estimate of US$24/lb, and all-in sustaining costs of US$41–US$45/lb compare to the analyst’s forecast of US$41/lb.
The company’s comment “Boss has identified potential challenges that may arise in achieving nameplate capacity as previously outlined in the EFS” superseded the other updates, with management appointing an independent expert panel to review its operations.
Timeline on the review is uncertain. Shaw and Partners has downgraded net profit after tax forecasts by -18% for FY25, -7% for FY26 and -18% for FY27.
The stock remains Buy, high risk rated, with a $2.88 target price. The share price decline of -44% is viewed as overdone.
Higher U308 prices needed for Deep Yellow’s final investment decision
Deep Yellow’s ((DYL)) June quarter update showed further progress at Tumas, with Canaccord Genuity highlighting management waits for higher U3O8 prices to underpin the final investment decision.
Bell Potter noted Ausenco’s ongoing detailed engineering for the plant, with most areas of the project somewhere between 34%–52% complete.
The miner has eight contracts awarded for US$30m in value and an additional four approved for award with a US$10m value. Final negotiations are ongoiing with mining contractors. The targeted start date is late in 2026.
The broker believes further upside to the share price beyond the U3O8 spot price stems from de-risking of Tumas towards development and optimisation of the mine schedule, with ore reserves sufficient for 30 years of operation.
Bell Potter asserts Deep Yellow could sustain mining production levels of 3.6mlbs p.a. for several years on increased capacity of 4.5mtpa to 5mtpa or higher grades from FY30 onwards.
The latter broker’s target price rises to $1.85 alongside a Speculative Buy rating.
Canaccord Genuity also has a Speculative Buy rating, with a $1.61 target price.
Uranium price forecasts and what happened in the U308 markets
US-based wealth manager Stifel updated its spot price U3O8 outlook for 3Q2025 to US$75/lb, with a 2025 U3O8 spot price forecast at US$73.21/lb.
The analyst retains a long-term price forecast at US$105/lb and believes long-term price contracts remain the dominant influence on the market, despite the volatility in the spot price market over the June quarter.
Industry consultants TradeTech reported an unchanged U3O8 spot price for last week at US$71/lb, with six transactions conducted in the spot market.
The spot price rose last Tuesday to US$72.75/lb, then slipped to US$72.25 on Wednesday before retreating to US$71/lb on Thursday.
Each of the six transactions was for delivery of 50klbs of U3O8, which is below the “normal” transaction volume of 100klbs, the consultants point out.
In the longer-term U3O8 market demand remains stable. One transaction was reported in the term market and one producer secured a commitment with a utility to deliver material over a five-year period at prices reflected through TradeTech’s Long-Term price indicator at US$80/lb. The TradeTech Mid-Term price indicator stands at US$83/lb.
One utility seeking 50k–200klbs of U3O8 per annum for delivery between 2028 and 2031 has finished its evaluation and is in discussions with a shortlist of suppliers.
Another utility is awaiting offers for a formal Request for Proposals on July 18 for up to 400klbs of U3O8 annually between 2029 and 2033, with an optional 300klbs per annum between 2034 and 2036. Offers are requested to be submitted no later than July 31.
A US utility is seeking 500klbs of U3O8 for delivery between 2029 and 2033. TradeTech highlights other utilities are moving to secure future supply in the mid to long-term markets.
Nuclear energy plant a fillip for the UK eonomy
In macro news, the UK government gave final approval on July 22 for the new Sizewell C Nuclear Power Plant, which will be able to generate power for the equivalent of six million homes and support 10,000 jobs at peak construction.
The two-unit Sizewell C plant in eastern England is expected to cost GBP38bn to build and should to be in service commercially in the 2030s. The targeted cost is some -20% below the replica Hinkley Point C and is part of the UK government’s Plan for Change to boost economic growth.
The UK government will take a 44.9% stake and become the largest shareholder. Other shareholders include Canadian pension fund La Caisse with 20%, and French energy company EDF with a 12.5% interest.
Short interests trundle along
For the week ending July 22, the most recent data available through ASIC, Paladin retained the highest short interest on the ASX at 16.42%, with Boss Energy dropping to third from second position at 13.75%, down -0.88% on the week.
Deep Yellow sits at twelfth position at 8.45%, and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) at 7.56%, down -0.74% on the week.
For more weekly U308 updates at FNArena:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/15/uranium-week-sprott-bump-no-more/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/08/uranium-week-u3o8-spot-price-poised-to-fall/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/01/uranium-week-ai-tech-fuses-with-nuclear/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 25/07/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 25/07/2025 | 0.1600 | 0.00% | $0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 25/07/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  250.0% |
|
| AKN | 25/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 25/07/2025 | 0.1100 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 25/07/2025 | 0.5400 |  – 8.62% |
$0.67 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 25/07/2025 | 2.8100 | 2.66% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 67.3% |
|
| BOE | 25/07/2025 | 1.9700 | -11.23% |
$4.75 | $1.88 | 124.6 | $3.973 | 101.7% |
| BSN | 25/07/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 25/07/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 25/07/2025 | 0.1100 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | ||
| CXU | 25/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 25/07/2025 | 0.0800 | -11.11% |
$0.27 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 25/07/2025 | 1.6500 | – 2.17% |
$1.87 | $0.75 | -336.0 | $1.940 | 17.6% |
| EL8 | 25/07/2025 | 0.2600 | – 3.57% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 25/07/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 25/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 25/07/2025 | 0.0040 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 25/07/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 25/07/2025 | 0.0900 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 25/07/2025 | 0.1300 | 18.18% |
$0.73 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 25/07/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 25/07/2025 | 0.7200 | – 3.66% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 25/07/2025 | 0.1800 | 5.26% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.328 | 81.9% |
|
| MEU | 25/07/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 25/07/2025 | 10.9900 | 3.53% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | 17.6% |
|
| ORP | 25/07/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 25/07/2025 | 6.9000 | – 9.63% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | -131.5 | $8.986 | 30.2% |
| SLX | 25/07/2025 | 4.7500 | 9.34% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 36.8% |
|
| TOE | 25/07/2025 | 0.2100 | 5.00% |
$0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 25/07/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
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