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This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
After a lacklustre prior week, the U308 spot market moved up a gear with multiple transactions and a robust uplift in price.
-IEA projects nuclear capacity could triple by 2050, boosted by new technologies
-UK–US agreement to fast-track small modular reactors development
-Uranium spot price rallies on US policy signals
-Paladin, Peninsula raise equity and Silex rallies on proof of concept
By Danielle Ecuyer
Macro outlook for uranium boosted by nuclear announcements
The International Energy Agency produced its “Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050,” highlighting at the end of 2024 there were 377GW of global nuclear power capacity in operation. Another 62 reactors (64.4GW) were under construction with 19.7GW offline temporarily.
Two possible scenarios were provided: a low case, which assumes a continuation of current trends with only modest changes, and a high case scenario with more ambitious national nuclear expansion policies.
The low case estimates global nuclear energy capacity to lift to around 561GW by 2050, or circa 50% from current levels. The high case scenario points to a rise in capacity of 2.6 times the 2024 levels to 992GW by 2050.
In the high case, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are forecast to generate a large share of capacity additions at circa 24% of new additions, versus 5% assumed in the low case.
At the end of 2024, 9.7% of electricity produced came from nuclear energy, with total electricity production from all energy sources up 2.4% in 2024 on 2023, including nuclear reactors up 2.8% to 2670TWh versus 2023.
Nuclear energy was the second largest source of low-carbon electricity in 2024, with the bulk of nuclear energy expansion occurring between 1980 and 1990 when capacity almost doubled. From 1990 it has declined to about 9% for 2024.
Hydro continues to be the largest source of low-carbon electricity at around 15% of total electricity production, while the share of solar and wind has risen notably to 8% for wind in 2024 and 7% for solar.
Fossil fuels, particularly coal, have remained the dominant source at around 60% since 1980. Coal’s share peaked at 40% in 2010 and has been declining since, while the share of natural gas has remained at just over 20% since 2010.
Oil’s share has fallen to circa 3% in 2024 from 20% in 1980.
President Trump’s UK visit brings forth support for SMRs
The United Kingdom and United States announced during President Trump’s US visit last week an agreement to accelerate nuclear energy deployment, marking what both governments described as the dawn of a “new golden age of nuclear power.”
The Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy aims to streamline regulatory approvals by allowing safety and design assessments completed in one country to be recognised in the other. Officials believe this could substantially reduce licensing timelines from three to four years down to just two, a critical step in speeding up next-generation nuclear projects.
The deal is underpinned by billions in private investment and includes commercial ventures such as Centrica (listed on the LSE) and US firm X-Energy’s plan to develop up to 12 advanced modular reactors at Hartlepool, and a joint Holtec, EDF UK, and Tritax initiative to build a 1 GW data centre powered by SMRs at the former Cottam coal station in Nottinghamshire.
For the nuclear industry, the agreement offers the potential to unlock faster rollouts of small modular and advanced reactors, technologies central to providing reliable, low-carbon power alongside renewables. By reducing regulatory duplication, the partnership could lower costs, shorten construction schedules, and attract further private capital.
Supporters argue the pact positions nuclear as a vital component of energy security for both nations, while creating thousands of jobs and boosting domestic supply chains. More broadly, it signals to the global industry that SMRs are moving closer to commercial reality, with the UK and US seeking to lead in design, deployment, and export opportunities.
Sprott and good news boost buying interest in the U308 spot market
The U308 spot market perked up considerably last week after a lull the week before. Industry consultants TradeTech reported thirteen transactions in the spot market, with one transaction and new demand reported in the term uranium market.
The positive news flow for the industry didn’t stop there. US Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, stated at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s annual general conference “We’re moving to a place, and we’re not there yet, to no longer use Russian enriched uranium.”
The statement was interpreted by the market as signaling the US intends to increase its uranium reserves to safeguard against Russian supplies and improve resilience in the longer-term outlook for the US nuclear industry.
TradeTech’s spot price indicator rose US$2.75/lb to US$77.75/lb, the highest level since June. The spot price is up 2.3% year-to-date and remains below the same period last year by -1.9%.
Between Monday and Thursday, spot market transactions totaled nine for 700klbs of U308, ranging in price from US$76/lb to US$76.50/lb.
Buying momentum improved last Friday, starting with an early transaction for 200klbs of U308 at US$77.25/lb, followed by 50klbs at US$77.75/lb, with another seller for 50klbs at US$77.50/lb, with two further transactions in the afternoon for 100klbs at US$77.25/lb and a final 100klbs at US$77.75/lb.
TradeTech attributes much of Friday’s buying interest to investor support of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, which the consultants reported as managing a successful raising.
In the term market, a US utility issued a formal request for proposals for U308 or enriched uranium product (EUP) for an equivalent value of US$30m. Offers were due on September 18.
TradeTech’s mid-term price indicator came in at US$80/lb and the long-term price indicator at US$82/lb.
With all the upbeat announcements and activity in the U308 spot market, the Global X Uranium ETF rose 17.55% from September 12 to September 19.
Uranium producers raise equity funds on higher share prices
In corporate news, Paladin Energy ((PDN)) was quick to respond to the 17% rally in the share price during September, launching a fully underwritten placement at $7.25 per share, an -8% discount to the prior close.
The uranium producer raised US$300m in equity capital with an additional $20m share purchase plan to fund the final investment decision on the Patterson Lake project in Canada.
Ord Minnett noted around -$120m will be used to boost the working capital at Langer Heinrich, lifting the cash position to US$194m in FY28, as lower-grade inventory had eroded cash flow and was placing pressure on cash burn.
Citi highlighted Langer Heinrich is performing ahead of expectations for the quarter ending August 31, with 0.8Mt processed at a feed grade of 495ppm.
Cost of production at US$40/lb is below guidance of US$44–US$48/lb, with a realised price of US$67.4/lb, and FY26 production guidance confirmed at 4–4.4mlbs U308 and sales of 3.8–4.2mlbs.
The FNArena consensus target price stands at $8.67 for Paladin. Post the capital raisings, there are five Buy-equivalent ratings, with three brokers yet to update. One Hold rating plus Ord Minnett downgraded the stock to Hold from Accumulate post-raising.
UBS’s preferred uranium-exposed stock is Paladin, post the latest uranium price forecast changes. The broker raises forecasts by 5%–10% for FY26–FY28 to US$80/lb for 2026 (up 5%), 2027 (up 10%) and 2028 (up 10%). Forecast for 2029 remains unchanged at US$85/lb, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$81/lb (nominal).
UBS cites factors such as stronger US policy support, Big Tech sponsorship, and ongoing supply disruptions.
Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) caught the attention of Shaw and Partners with first U308 production at the Lance Project achieved alongside a successful $70m equity raising.
The analyst believes Lance is positioned to become the largest source of domestic uranium in the US and is thus a highly strategic asset for nuclear fuel security.
Considering a forecast production profile that increases sequentially but at the lower end of the company’s guidance to 2030, with expectations of a higher achievable price assumption of US$80/lb, Shaw lifts its target price to $1.33 from $1 and upgraded the stock to Buy, High Risk from Hold.
Global Laser Enrichment (GLE), a company 51% owned by Silex Systems ((SLX)), has produced hundreds of kilos of low-enriched uranium and is on track to achieve TRL6, indicating it could progress beyond the prototype stage.
Canaccord Genuity notes the planned Paducah Laser Enrichment Facility is the only new US enrichment project under NRC licence review, backed by over US$550m investment to date.
GLE has bid into the US DOE’s Task Order 2, worth up to US$900m milestone-based funding to establish new domestic enrichment capacity by 2031.
The broker notes further upside could come from the Section 232 investigation into uranium imports and Cameco’s (49% owner of GLE) option to lift its GLE stake by 26% at fair market value. Speculative Buy. Target rises to $6.90 from $6.64.
For more details on Silex check out https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/19/in-brief-tpg-telecom-webjet-travel-silex/
Short interests over the week
In terms of short interests, as at the latest ASIC update on September 16, Boss Energy ((BOE)) retained the number one spot with a 19.92% short position, up 1.01% on the week.
Paladin remains in third position, broadly unchanged at 16.38%. Silex came in as fourteenth at 8.61%, unchanged, and Deep Yellow ((DYL)) in fifteenth position, down slightly to 7.6%.
Lotus Resources dropped -3.82% to 5.63% short interest.
For more of reading, see our latest weekly updates:
–https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/16/uranium-week-buyers-strike-pre-major-deals/
–https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/09/uranium-week-tripling-nuclear-capacity-by-2050/
–https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/26/uranium-week-kazatomprom-sparks-a-rally/
–https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
–https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 19/09/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 19/09/2025 | 0.2500 |  13.33% |
$0.26 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 19/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 8.33% |
$0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 133.3% |
|
| AKN | 19/09/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 19/09/2025 | 0.0800 |  – 3.61% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 19/09/2025 | 0.5600 | 8.74% |
$0.67 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 19/09/2025 | 3.6300 | 4.17% |
$3.89 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 29.5% |
|
| BOE | 19/09/2025 | 2.0300 | 3.52% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | 11.0 | $2.343 | 15.4% |
| BSN | 19/09/2025 | 0.0400 | – 4.65% |
$0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 19/09/2025 | 0.0200 | 58.82% |
$0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 19/09/2025 | 0.1000 | 5.00% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | 10.0% |
|
| CXU | 19/09/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 19/09/2025 | 0.1100 | 9.30% |
$0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 19/09/2025 | 2.0200 | 4.99% |
$2.11 | $0.75 | -404.0 | $1.940 | – 4.0% |
| EL8 | 19/09/2025 | 0.3400 | 10.00% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 19/09/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 19/09/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 19/09/2025 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 19/09/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 19/09/2025 | 0.1100 | – 4.55% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 19/09/2025 | 0.2400 | 4.35% |
$0.72 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 19/09/2025 | 0.0500 | 66.67% |
$0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 19/09/2025 | 0.6600 | 3.17% |
$0.90 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 19/09/2025 | 0.2100 | 17.14% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.295 | 40.5% |
|
| MEU | 19/09/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 19/09/2025 | 13.3300 | 8.66% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | – 3.0% |
|
| ORP | 19/09/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 19/09/2025 | 8.3900 | 2.79% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | 65.1 | $8.671 | 3.4% |
| PEN | 19/09/2025 | 0.4500 | 42.86% |
$2.20 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 195.6% |
|
| SLX | 19/09/2025 | 6.0200 | 43.89% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 8.0% |
|
| TOE | 19/09/2025 | 0.2200 | 5.00% |
$0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 19/09/2025 | 0.0200 | 8.70% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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