The Monday Report – 03 November 2025

This story features QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Amazon led Nasdaq and S&P500 higher on Friday with support from Netflix which announced a 10-for-1 stock split.

The ASX200 fell -1.5% last week. Ahead of the November mini earnings reports season, including multiple banks, SPI futures are suggesting a rather unconvincing start on Monday morning.

Good Morning,

A stronger than expected September quarter CPI print, pricing out the chance of an RBA rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting, saw the ASX200 fall -137pts (-1.52%) last week. 

The interest rate market is pricing in just -2bp of RBA rate cuts for Tuesday’s meeting with the next -25bp rate cut not fully priced in until May next year.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research

The S&P500 managed a 0.3% gain on Friday to end the month on a positive note, helped by Amazon. The US dollar was another 0.3% higher on the DXY Friday to be 0.9% higher over the week, but US 10yr yields were -2bp lower at 4.08%, paring the weekly gain to 8bp.

FOMC dissenter Schmid outlined his reasoning in a statement (labour market largely in balance and inflation too high). Elsewhere, CPI reports for the euro area and for Tokyo were of little consequence for central bank pricing, and China’s official PMIs pointed to slower momentum.

Kansas Fed’s Schmid outlined in a statement why he dissented in favour of a hold at last week’s meeting, “by my assessment, the labour market is largely in balance, the economy shows continued momentum, and inflation remains too high.”

Two non-voters, Dallas President Logan and Cleveland President Hammack also said Friday they would have preferred to hold rates steady, highlighting division within the FOMC. There are -17bp of cuts priced for December, little changed on Friday after being near fully priced ahead of Powell’s pushback out of last week’s FOMC decision.

US 10yr yields were -2bp lower on Friday at 4.08%. Yields touched an intraday high of 4.11% Thursday and are 8b higher over the week. European yields were generally little changed. 10-year bund yields were -1bp lower at 2.63%, 1bp higher over the week.

Preliminary euro area CPI dipped to 2.1% from 2.2% as expected. The core measure held at 2.4% (2.3% expected) and services inflation quickened to 3.4% from 3.2%. With policymakers describing policy as in ‘a good place’ the core and services measures will do nothing to shift the ECB in the direction of cuts in the short term.

Tokyo CPI, which can serve as a leading indicator for nationwide prices, was 2.8% yoy in October from 2.5% (consensus 2.4%). The core measure which excludes fresh food and energy also increased 2.8%, also above consensus.

Government cost-of-living price interventions continue to swing the data, with the end of the Tokyo metropolitan government’s water-charge waiver adding around a ¼ppt to inflation in the month. There is around a 50% chance of a 25bp hike priced for the next meeting, which was little changed after the data, although the yen received some temporary support.

The official manufacturing PMI in China fell -8 tenths to 49.0 in October. Weakness was most notable in new export orders, but the timing of Golden Week Holidays may also have been a factor.

The Services PMI rose a tenth to 50.2, while the construction PMI fell back to 49.1, returning to its lowest level recorded outside of the pandemic.

Alternative RatingDog PMIs are this week (Manufacturing Today, Services Wednesday) and have been stronger than the official PMIs recently.

The week ahead,Chris Weston, Pepperstone extract

Traders had the weekend to refresh and reset their mindset after a week filled with outsized earnings moves among the mega-cap names and a Federal Reserve that has injected some optionality into the December FOMC meeting, amid an increasing dispersion in policy views held with the Fed’s ranks.

Headlines around a US–China agreement were also a clear theme, and one that has further lowered the negative political risk premium in the USD, with the DXY now eyeing the 100 level and breaking out to its best levels since August. This has refocused market attention on relative growth, inflation dynamics, and China’s efforts to boost domestic demand.

Meanwhile, the US funding markets are drawing closer scrutiny as the Fed prepares to end its QT program on 1 December.

Traders express some disappointment the Fed could have done more to help the private sector absorb the increased supply of US T-bill issuance from the Treasury Department.

The surge in short-term issuance has led to a clean out in RRP (reserve repo) balances (held on the Fed’s balance sheet) to fund the supply of short-term govt debt, which in turn has boosted the Fed’s TGA account towards US$1 trillion and widened repo rates relative to what the Fed pays in interest banks to park excess reserves with them (IORB). 

The Fed’s Standing Repo Facility has become a growing source of overnight cash for the banking system, but as reduced liquidity remains a focus, debate around a return of QE has kicked up — notably following Dallas Fed President Logan’s remarks last week on asset purchases and a return to an increasing balance sheet.

The market therefore expects the Fed’s balance sheet to rise again in 2026, with the Fed supporting liquidity and the repo market through the purchases of short-term US Treasuries in the secondary market. Crucially, any such purchases would not follow a fixed schedule or a prescribed monthly target and would not technically be seen as ‘QE’ in the classic technical sense. Still, the conversation has now begun.

As we roll into the new week, US clocks have shifted for Daylight Savings, impacting traders outside the US who operate during the first and final hours of the futures or cash sessions.

OPEC-Plus has announced a further 137k bpd output hike for December, though this was widely expected. Importantly, the group signaled output increases will pause between January and March.

The US government shutdown continues, and it appears likely we won’t have another nonfarm payrolls report to react to. As a result, traders will turn their attention to alternative labour market data to gauge risk.

Amid a raft of central bank meetings, the Bank of England meeting holds the greatest potential for a surprise relative to market pricing. After last week’s deluge of US earnings, the pace slows — with Palantir and AMD the key trader favourites due to hit the street with numbers this week.

In Australia, ASX200 bank earnings take centre stage, drawing attention from traders focused on Aussie equities and the AUS200 index.

After the upside surprise in Q3 CPI, a -25bp rate cut is firmly off the table. Governor Michele Bullock is expected to reiterate confidence that inflation will return to target over time, but the tone is likely to turn more hawkish.

Inflation forecasts will probably be revised higher for Dec 2025 (currently 3%) and June 2026 (3.1%) — the key question is, by how much?

Corporate news in Australia

-Qube Holdings ((QUB)) has exited the $50mm Strait Link bid.

-Non-bank lender ColCap is acquiring a 14% stake in private credit Revolution to assist in it tripling assets under management.

-Funds warn against Treasure Chalmers intention to stop the $672m Maye Pharma ((MYX)) takeover.

-Cboe Global Markets is selling its Australian assets.

-Australia’s clean energy regulator has issued more than 60k carbon credits to Santos ((STO)) post the start-up of the Moomba carbon capture and storage project.

-Salauda Medical to list on the ASX at $700m after raising $230m in its IPO.

-Macquarie Group ((MQG)) has been fined -$5m for not picking up on alleged suspicious trades in electricity futures.

On the calendar today:

-AU ANZ-Indeed Oct Job Ads

-AU Sep Building Approvals

-AU Sept Household Spending

-US ISM Oct Mfg Index

-ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) ex-div 10c

-AML3D LIMITED ((AL3)) AGM

-AMA GROUP LIMITED ((AMA)) AGM

-BATHURST RESOURCES LIMITED ((BRL)) Investor Briefing

-RAND MINING LIMITED ((RND)) ex-div 10c (100%)

-TRIBUNE RESOURCES LIMITED ((TBR)) ex-div 20c (100%)

-WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) earnings report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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