The Monday Report – 24 November 2025

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US markets recovered on Friday alongside the monthly options expiration post Thursday's sharp reversal and sell off.

It is a shortened week in the US, with Thanksgiving on Thursday 27th.

After last week's sell off, ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive start.

Wednesday's October CPI print could underpin some market volatility.

Good Morning,

The ASX200 fell -218pts or -2.52% last week to 8416.50, marking the fourth consecutive week of losses and bringing the fall in November to -5.42%.

The index is tracking to the worst monthly performance since September 2022.

The ASX200 is still up 3.15% in 2025. Including dividends the return to date sits at 6.38%.

What happened on Friday, IG Traders View, Tony Sycamore, extract

US stocks rebounded on Friday, supported by renewed hopes for a rate cut in December following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams. Despite the rebound, the Nasdaq logged its third consecutive week of declines, falling -3.07%, while the S&P500 lost -1.95% and the Dow Jones slid 902 points or -1.91%.

Williams stated he still sees room to lower rates further “in the near term,” leading the market-implied probability of a December cut to rise from 30% to 70%. This move was in line with our own assessment in Friday’s Traders View that “market pricing for a 25bp rate cut from the Fed in December sits at around a 30% probability, which seems low, especially given the recent rise in the unemployment rate.”

Given Williams’s central role on the FOMC, some market participants interpret his remarks as reflective of Chair Powell’s sentiment. However, even if this is the case, a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, as numerous regional Fed presidents have expressed opposition. 

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the October CPI will not be published, leaving the Fed with even less data heading into its December meeting. However, some components of the October print will be included with the November report, which will be released on December 18 — after the FOMC meeting. The PCE index could also be affected, as 70% of its basket derives from the CPI.

In the stock space, Alphabet rose 3.3% to US$163.30, driven by momentum around its Gemini 3 model and plans for significant data centre investments. Intel gained 2.62% to US$34.50, and Qualcomm lifted 2.32% to US$163.30. 

However, it wasn’t all smooth sailing in the tech sector, as investors continued to reassess inflated AI valuations. Oracle dropped -5.66% to US$198.76, making its 40% rally following the OpenAI memorandum of understanding look more questionable by the day.

Broadcom lost -1.91% to US$340.20, Microsoft slipped -1.32% to US$472, and Nvidia finished down -0.97% to US$178.88, to below US$180 for the first time in almost two months. 

Looking ahead, with end of the month approaching, the data calendar is relatively light, more so due to the Thanksgiving holiday and with the BLS still playing catch up after the shutdown.

The limited highlights will include US consumer confidence data and earnings report from companies Zoom, Dell, HP, and Deere & Co.

The Ai Trade: Opportunity or Warning? Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice extract

The markets experienced another volatile trading week as we head into a shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

The S&P500 and Nasdaq both closed the week lower, but rallied on Friday as options expiration took hold. The consistent selling pressure in AI and semiconductor-related stocks had reversed previous overbought conditions enough for a bounce.

The big news was Nvidia’s earnings. Despite the market’s poor reaction (a very normal response following its earnings report), the numbers were stellar.

Nvidia’s earnings beat didn’t just meet expectations; it crushed them on nearly every metric. Revenue jumped 34% quarter over quarter, with data center sales up 41%.

Demand for high-performance GPUs continues to outpace supply, and CEO Jensen Huang dismissed fears of a bubble, saying, “This is the beginning of a new industrial revolution.” 

That quote made the rounds for good reason. The stock’s post-earnings surge lifted the entire tech complex and added another leg to the year’s dominant trade: AI infrastructure.

Importantly, Nvidia’s numbers were more than a sentiment boost. They were confirmation that capital expenditures in AI, particularly by the largest tech platforms, remain robust.

Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are all spending aggressively on AI buildouts, and Nvidia sits at the center of that spend. That’s why the stock’s move matters: it’s not just about one company, it’s a read-through on the entire AI supply chain.

On the macro side, the data flow stayed supportive. Jobless claims ticked up slightly, but not enough to suggest deterioration. Inflation expectations, as measured by both breakevens and consumer surveys, remained anchored. Bond yields eased modestly, allowing equities more breathing room.

This backdrop checks the boxes on what Nomura refers to as the “Santa Rally” setup: cooling inflation, stable employment, improving liquidity, and no immediate Fed pushback.

Still, not all signals are green. Valuations, particularly in the tech sector, remain elevated, with the forward P/E ratio on the Nasdaq100 above 25x, significantly higher than historical averages.

Meanwhile, earnings growth has slowed in some areas. The market is clearly pricing in an ideal scenario, continued growth, disinflation, and no policy mistakes. That leaves little room for error.

Heading into December, the seasonal tailwinds remain intact, as noted above. December is historically the best month for equities, with the “Santa Claus rally” often delivering average gains of 1.5% to 2.0%.

With corporate buybacks in full swing, adding US$5-US$6 billion in daily volume, investor positioning remaining stable, and professional managers underweight in exposure, particularly in technology companies, the fuel for a rally is present.

However, the market also remains fragile due to poor underlying breadth and rising volatility, so caution is advised.

The near-term outlook is constructive, provided the Fed remains quiet and bond volatility remains contained. But any surprise, in inflation, growth, or geopolitics, could shift sentiment quickly.

The key for investors is discipline. Don’t chase the rally blindly. Stick to quality, stay diversified, and use elevated prices to trim into strength where appropriate. While the potential for a year-end rally is higher after the recent correction, nothing is guaranteed.

While Friday’s strong bounce of the 100-day moving average is encouraging, we are not out of the woods just yet. As noted above, relative strength and breadth continue to be a concern. Should the 100-day moving average not hold, the next area of support sits around the 200-day moving average near 6,163.

However, for now, the current pullback remains within a larger bullish structure, but pressure is mounting that should not be dismissed.

Other markets did not escape the selling pressure this past week. The Nasdaq Composite saw downside follow-through, losing nearly -2.75% on the week and closing back below short-term support levels.

The AI-related stock basket declined by more than -5%, while Bitcoin fell by almost -10%.

Overall, it was a tough week for investors, but the good news is that most markets are now decently oversold, which is enough for a bounce. 

Corporate news in Australia

-BHP Group ((BHP)) has made a revised takeover approach to Anglo American with a mix of cash and stock, to block the merger with Canada’s Teck Resources. Anglo American’s response has been negative (preference for Teck deal to proceed)

-Morse Micro, Australia’s largest semiconductor company is seeking to raise $32m in pre-IPO funding.

-A private equity firm is expected to launch a takeover offer for Monash IVF ((MVF)) post picking up 6% of the stock last Friday.

– Private equity is seeking around $1bn valuation for Everlight Radiology, a teleradiology business.

-CommBank ((CBA)) is pushing back against moves by Macquarie Group ((MQG)) to attract depositors and is defending its 26.6% market share.

-Energy Australis is converting its 101-year-old Yallourn coal power site into a low carbon emissions hub supplying data centres, industry and households at a $5bn cost.

-Agnico Eagle is reportedly eyeing up Northern Star ((NST)) but a deal depends on the Hemi project’s value and capex requirements.

-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) is selling its $3.8bn equipment finance portfolio with bids due pre-Christmas.

-Treasurer Jim Chalmers has blocked Cosett’s $600m Mayne Pharma ((MYX)) bid on national interest grounds.

-BGH Capital is reported as targeting Webjet Group ((WJL)) for its cash with a leverage buyout.

-The Australian government to expected to underwrite Tomago Aluminium by investing billions into Snowy-Hydro to generate cheap energy.

On the calendar today:

-ALPHA HPA LIMITED ((A4N)) AGM

-ALFABS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((AAL)) AGM

-BLACK ROCK MINING LIMITED ((BKT)) AGM

-BRIGHTSTAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((BTR)) AGM

-CHRYSOS CORP. LIMITED ((C79)) AGM

-CLEO DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED ((COV)) AGM

-GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED ((GTK)) FY25 Earnings/Investor Call

-INFOMEDIA LIMITED ((IFM)) ex-div 2.9c (100%)

-INTEGRATED RESEARCH LIMITED ((IRI)) AGM

-PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) AGM

-RACE ONCOLOGY LIMITED ((RAC)) AGM

-ROX RESOURCES LIMITED ((RXL)) AGM

-SPC GLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SPG)) AGM

-STRICKLAND METALS LIMITED ((STK)) AGM

-SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED ((SXL)) AGM

-WEEBIT NANO LIMITED ((WBT)) AGM

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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