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Conflicting reports on US/Russia sanctions saw spot prices retreat on hopes of a Ukraine/Russia peace deal.
- US Russia sanctions risk fades, U308 spot retreats to US$75.60/lb
- Term contracting continues, utilities advance multi year U308 tenders
- Nuclear momentum builds in Japan and the UK as ASX shorts stay elevated
By Danielle Ecuyer
Spot market activity ticks over on price weakness
Casting an eye back to a year ago, geopolitical issues figured in November 2024 “with the Russian government announcing restrictions on enriched uranium sales to the US in retaliation to US importation restrictions announced earlier in 2024.
“Notably, a shipment failed to leave the Port of St Petersburg for the US due to a lack of documentation and export licence. Expectations are for the cargo to be reloaded onto another vessel for delivery to the US later this year.”
For more details, see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/12/03/uranium-week-gen-ai-small-modular-reactors/
With a new administration in office under President Trump, the political landscape between the US and Russia has taken a slightly different hue as exemplified over the week past.
Early in the week, Senator Lindsay Graham was afforded the go ahead to progress legislation that would increase pressure on Russia to bring the war in Ukraine to an end by imposing the most robust sanctions to date.
The legislation would have facilitated President Trump to place secondary sanctions on parties buying oil and gas from Russia which may have unintended consequences on the nuclear fuel market.
As highlighted by industry consultants TradeTech, the proposition of energy sanctions against Russia saw sellers step back from the U308 spot price market on Tuesday and Wednesday following four buyers acquiring 350klbs in four deals at the start of the week with three transactions at US$76/lb and one 50klb transaction of U308 at US$76.25/lb.
Towards the end of the week, sentiment had shifted post the US Administration’s proposed Ukraine-Russia peace plan.
Sellers moved back into the spot market and were forced to lower prices as some uncertainty lifted around U308 supply concerns from what seemed to be –now– unlikely sanctions.
One transaction for delivery of 50klbs of U308 in December at Cameco’s Canadian facility was concluded at US$75.75/lb. Another transaction concluded for 50klbs for delivery at Orano’s facility in France at US$75.75/lb for a total of seven transactions.
A further 100klb delivery in January 2026 at Cameco’s facility was conducted at the end of the week at US$75.50/lb.
TradeTech’s spot price indicator declined -US$1.30/lb to US$75.60/lb, a fall of -8.4% in November and down -2.5% from a year ago.
In the term market, one US utility selected a preferred supplier for delivery of 2mlbs of U308 over a five year period starting in 2029.
Offers were also due on November 13 to a US utility seeking up to 500klbs for delivery beginning in 2030. Offers are due November 26 for a non-US utility seeking an equivalent 3mlbs of U308 between 2026 and 2029.
Another US utility continues to evaluate offers on a request for around 2.5mlbs U308 with first delivery starting 2027. One non-US utility remains in discussion with possible sellers for around 900klbs U308 to be delivered between 2027 and 2036.
TradeTech’s Medium-term spot price indicator stands at US$87/lb and Long-term price indicator at US$86/lb.
Japan and the UK progress nuclear energy plans
In nuclear related news, Japan approved the restart of the world’s largest nuclear power plant, Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, more than a decade after its closure post the Fukushima disaster.
It remains the world’s largest nuclear power plant with potential output of nearly 8k MW.
Japan’s nuclear power capacity stood at nearly 30% of the country’s energy mix prior to Fukushima and fell to nearly zero after the meltdown disaster.
Some 14 out of 54 reactors have been restarted.
Turning to the UK, a government taskforce has finalised plans to accelerate and lower the cost of rolling out a new generation of nuclear reactors.
Head of the taskforce and former head of the Office of Fair Trading said in the final report “Our solutions are radical, but necessary. By simplifying regulation, we can maintain or enhance safety standards while finally delivering nuclear capacity safely, quickly, and affordably.”
The aim is to develop a single commission for nuclear generation and change both environmental and planning regulations to deliver projects more quickly.
Short interests largely unchanged
As at November 17, the latest available short interest data obtained from ASIC show Boss Energy ((BOE)) remains the most shorted stock on the ASX with a barely changed position of 21.55% from 21.44% a week earlier.
Paladin Energy ((PDN)) remains in fourth position at 12% shorted, largely unchanged from the prior week at 11.97%.
For more reading on U308 at FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/18/uranium-week-risk-off-rules/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/11/uranium-week-biggest-spot-fall-since-march/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/28/uranium-week-projecting-us150-lb-post-2026/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/21/uranium-week-jpmorgans-us1-5trn-plan/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/14/uranium-week-price-frenzy-fades/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 21/11/2025 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 21/11/2025 | 0.1700 |  -10.26% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 21/11/2025 | 0.0200 | -12.00% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  250.0% | |
| AKN | 21/11/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 21/11/2025 | 0.0800 | -24.76% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 21/11/2025 | 0.5000 | – 3.85% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 21/11/2025 | 2.7800 | -10.29% | $4.07 | $1.76 | $5.100 | 83.5% | |
| BOE | 21/11/2025 | 1.5200 | – 7.60% | $4.75 | $1.51 | 8.1 | $2.279 | 49.9% |
| BSN | 21/11/2025 | 0.0500 | – 3.77% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 21/11/2025 | 0.0300 | -24.00% | $0.11 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 21/11/2025 | 0.2100 | – 2.22% | $0.27 | $0.06 | $0.230 | 9.5% | |
| CXU | 21/11/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 21/11/2025 | 0.1600 | 16.67% | $0.18 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 21/11/2025 | 1.5900 | – 4.88% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -320.0 | $1.930 | 21.4% |
| EL8 | 21/11/2025 | 0.2500 | – 7.41% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 21/11/2025 | 0.0030 | 50.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 21/11/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 21/11/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 21/11/2025 | 0.1400 | – 6.25% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 21/11/2025 | 0.2300 | – 3.70% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 21/11/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 21/11/2025 | 0.6600 | – 8.33% | $0.88 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 21/11/2025 | 0.1600 | – 6.06% | $0.26 | $0.13 | $0.337 | 110.4% | |
| MEU | 21/11/2025 | 0.0700 | 7.35% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 21/11/2025 | 11.9100 | – 5.44% | $15.21 | $6.44 | $15.375 | 29.1% | |
| ORP | 21/11/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 21/11/2025 | 7.5300 | – 8.20% | $9.95 | $3.93 | 63.1 | $9.843 | 30.7% |
| PEN | 21/11/2025 | 0.4500 | – 5.26% | $1.61 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 195.6% | |
| SLX | 21/11/2025 | 7.6000 | -11.21% | $10.85 | $2.28 | $11.200 | 47.4% | |
| TOE | 21/11/2025 | 0.3700 | – 8.64% | $0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 21/11/2025 | 0.0200 | -10.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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