Australia | 11:15 AM
Management at Downer EDI’s Investor Day set targets above consensus forecasts.
- Medium-term targets surprise at Downer EDI’s investor day
- Shares have significantly outpaced broader market, driven by sector re-rating
- Energy transition projects driving Energy & Utilities segment
- Better risk controls integral part of management's ambitious projections
By Mark Woodruff
Over the past 18 months Australian companies in the infrastructure, engineering and services space have re-rated, helping lift shares in Downer EDI ((DOW)) to $7.87 from around $4.50.
Shareholders have enjoyed a remarkable run since March 1, 2023, with total returns reaching 171%, far outpacing the ASX200’s 30% gain.
The good times may be set to continue after management at last month’s Investor Day reiterated FY26 guidance and set out medium-term ambitions to deliver sustainable revenue growth and margin expansion through to FY30.
UBS notes the implied FY30 earnings (EBITA) ambition came in about 20% above the consensus estimate.
The company is aiming for a four-year revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4-5% and an earnings margin “towards 6%” versus the market’s prior forecasts of 3% and 5%, respectively.
Downer expects revenue growth to be supported by population growth, the energy transition, increasing defence spend, and a cyclical recovery in both roads maintenance and the New Zealand economy.
Management believes margin upside will be supported by an improvement in risk controls, growth in Energy/Utilities earnings, an ongoing contract margin uplift, and cost management.
Overall, Downer anticipates the Energy & Utilities segment outlook will improve, supported by increased spending on ageing water infrastructure across A&NZ and ongoing investment in power transmission assets to enable renewable energy expansion.
Positives are expected to be partly offset by a softer investment outlook in the telecommunications sector.
The business
Headquartered in Sydney and employing about 26,000 people across the A&NZ region, Downer EDI provides infrastructure maintenance and facilities management.
In Australia, the company maintains extensive road networks for state transport authorities, operates urban public transport services via its 49%-owned Keolis Downer joint venture, services power and telecommunications networks, and manages public facilities (such as defence bases, social housing, hospitals and schools) under government outsourcing contracts.
In New Zealand, Downer is a leading contractor for road maintenance and infrastructure projects, and its construction subsidiary Hawkins is delivering major works such as the new Auckland airport terminal.
In recent years, the company has exited mining and large construction projects to focus on lower-risk, long-term service contracts in “urban services”.
The company reports across Transport (Road Services, Projects, and Rail & Transit Systems), Energy & Utilities (Power & Gas, Water, Energy & Industrial, Telecommunications), and Facilities, which includes Defence, Health, Education, and Government. In FY25, these segments contributed respectively 51%, 28%, and 21% of revenue.
Growth in the Energy and Utilities division will be driven by projects in the energy transition area, notes Ord Minnett, with Utilities representing the single-largest contributor to management’s targets.
The analyst at Macquarie notes Downer’s strong position in the power sector, providing maintenance and engineering and construction (E&C) services for transmission lines, substations and related assets, and retaining a high level of self-perform capability.
This broker also expects water-customer budgets to roughly double over the coming years as prolonged under-investment and population growth drive a substantial uplift in capital spending.
Macquarie also highlights Rail (within Transport) as an additional growth avenue, underpinned by several upcoming programs, including NSW’s Future Fleet and new Victorian operations and franchising opportunities. Management maintains Downer is well positioned to compete for work in this space.
Regarding the Facilities segment, Ord Minnett factors into its forecasts a higher-than-expected fall in Defence-related earnings, but this broker’s forecasts from FY29 rise post the targets laid out by the company.
Competition
Peers like Ventia Services ((VNT)) and Monadelphous Group ((MND)) compete directly with Downer for long-term service contracts and self-perform capability.
Others are complementary or adjacent. For example, Lendlease Group ((LLC)) focuses on large integrated property and construction, Worley ((WOR)) provides technical engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services to resources and energy clients, and specialist utilities firms concentrate on water and waste.
Several large private contractors and global firms such as John Holland and Fulton Hogan are material competitors on major public infrastructure and utilities work.
While the above list of competitors appears imposing, Macquarie notes Downer vies with numerous specialist firms across its verticals, yet no single rival matches its breadth of end-market exposure and integrated service capability.
Certainly, management regards this point of difference as a competitive advantage. By transferring learnings and insights across industries and clients, the company can deliver a stronger, more differentiated customer value proposition.
Investor day
UBS notes management’s FY30 revenue-CAGR and margin targets for the Transport and Facilities division broadly aligned with consensus. By contrast, ambitions for the Energy and Utilities division imply the largest upside versus market expectation.
The company reaffirmed its FY26 outlook given trading in the first four and a half months of FY26 was in line with management’s expectation.
Macquarie forecasts future earnings growth will be led by both the top-line and further margin improvements.
The analyst believes setting medium-term revenue and margin targets to FY30 signals management is entering the next phase of growth and demonstrates confidence in that trajectory.
Following delivery of margin targets in the last few years, including over-delivery on cost-out, Macquarie highlights Downer’s credibility in setting revenue and margin targets.
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