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Paladin and Boss Energy's share price roller-coaster has upended some investors as Langer Heinrich and Honeymoon move in contrasting directions.
- Diverging fortunes emerge as Paladin delivers operational recovery while Boss resets Honeymoon strategy
- Feasibility risks, rising costs and sentiment shifts reshape analysts' views on Australia’s uranium leaders
- U308 spot price rallies into final trading week of 2025
By Danielle Ecuyer
Paladin delivers while Boss takes a hit
Oh, what a difference a year makes, and certainly in the case of the share price divergence and outlooks for Australia’s two major uranium producers Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Paladin Energy ((PDN)).
Shareholders of both companies have experienced a roller-coaster ride over 2025 with once preferred sector exposure Boss falling from grace as it became evident to management the 2021 enhanced feasibility study was no longer realistic.
In contrast, Paladin’s share price was tossed around in 2H2024 due to a lack of water supply which subsequently turned to unseasonably wet weather and rains in March this year, impeding production and processing.
Paladin’s price is cosying up to 12-month highs around $9.60 having fallen as low as just under $4 in March when the wet weather event impacted.
Management has not only managed to right the production and processing ship as Langer Heinrich ramps up, better than expected results were delivered with an upgrade to FY26 guidance in July, the acquisition of Fission Uranium, including the Patterson Lake South (PLS) project, and a $300m rights issue, along with a syndicated debt restructuring.
As the year ends, FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target price of $9.843 for Paladin Energy shares with six Buy-equivalent ratings and one Sell rating from Ord Minnett.
A new feasibility study to reshape Honeymoon’s outlook
Boss, in comparison, served up more disappointing news for shareholders last week.
New management at Boss has withdrawn the 2021 Enhanced Feasibility Study for the Honeymoon uranium project, which set out the technical and economic basis for the project plan, including wellfield design, production profile, capital and operating cost assumptions, and supporting metallurgy and hydrology assumptions.
This was announced on the back of disappointing drilling and leach results, Macquarie highlights, post a lengthy review which was initiated after the June quarter results when challenges around reaching nameplate capacity for the Honeymoon project were revealed.
Several brokers downgraded the stock between late June and mid-July due to the strength in the share price which proved, for the analysts at least, to be quite timely given the subsequent flagging of potential issues at Honeymoon.
The Boss share price topped out at a 52-week high around $4.75 in June.
For shareholders, the latest news has been yet another blow to sentiment and resulted in several target price downgrades as well as the share price falling -25% on the day. Boss shares are currently languishing around $1.25.
As detailed by Macquarie, the delineation drilling which started in mid-September, is due to continue until 2Q2026 with a resource update in 3Q2026.
Management has chosen to explore how to commercialise what is a lower grade and a more challenging resource than the previous feasibility study suggested, rather than accepting a shorter mine life at Honeymoon.
In the latest update, FY26 guidance production was retained with flat guidance for FY27 which sits some -20% below prior consensus forecasts with costs up 15% against FY26; worse than consensus by 28%.
Morgan Stanley points to “increasing residence time” from 5 days to 40-90 days, where the leaching solution is left in contact with the uranium bearing rock underground in the wellfield much longer, allowing more uranium to dissolve and be recovered.
The potential positives are higher overall recovery rates and the ability to bring lower grade or previously uneconomic material into the mine plan, increasing total recoverable pounds.
The trade offs are that longer residence times generally slow production rates and can increase operating costs, as wells are tied up for longer and more solution is circulating at any one time.
This is why Boss is re-assessing the wellfield design and production assumptions in the new feasibility study.
The new approach could result in more elevated upfront capex with a longer ramp. And as pointed out by Morgan Stanley: Risks remain.
Citi questions whether the Honeymoon aquifer is sufficiently permeable and laterally connected to allow the fluid to move over the longer wellfield distances.
Ord Minnett notes the wide spaced wellfield plan is “unique” to Honeymoon and viability of the plan remains uncertain. This broker has stressed all parts of the plan need testing and a study still needs to be undertaken to establish feasibility.
In the interim, the analyst’s U308 output estimate is lowered by -40% and earnings forecasts by -35%. While retaining a Hold rating due to the share price sell off, the analyst acknowledges Boss has moved from investment grade in mid-2025 to highly speculative, with its target prices adjusted accordingly to reflect the risks.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target of $1.907 with four Hold-equivalent ratings and one Underweight rating. Two brokers have yet to update post the announcement.
RBC Capital lowered its price target to $1.15 and retained its Sector Perform rating.
Bannerman progresses at Etango
In other corporate news, Macquarie emphasises ongoing works at Etango are going well, with Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) continuing to award and start key contracts, with detailed design ongoing.
Bulk earthworks are 51% complete compared to 42% in October and foundations for the primary crusher and stockpile have been successfully poured. The HPGR tertiary crusher has been delivered, and the permanent water supply pipeline installation is around 16% advanced.
The broker expects Etango’s final investment decision to be ready in the next 3-6 months, subject to uranium and equity market conditions.
Slight changes to the share count result in the analyst tweaking EPS forecasts lower by -1.8% for FY26 and -4.9% for FY27. No change to Outperform rating and $5.50 target price.
U308 spot market continues to see buying interest and price strength
Up until Thursday, the U308 spot market was tracking to an uneventful week when two transactions were conducted late last Thursday, according to industry consultants, TradeTech.
One for 100klbs at US$79.50/lb and the second at US$81/lb for 100klbs delivery in February at Honeywell’s ConverDyn facility.
Another two transactions were conducted on Friday morning, one buyer picked up 50klb of U308 at US$80/lb for January delivery at Cameco’s facility in Canada.
Later, a different buyer agreed to acquire 300klbs for delivery in December also at Cameco.
Overall, five transactions were conducted in the spot market with TradeTech’s spot price rising US$3.85/lb to US$81/lb, bringing the gain in the spot price to 6.6% for 2025 and up 12.5% from a year earlier.
TradeTech’s Mid-Term price indicator stands at US$86.50/lb and the Longterm price indicator at US$86/lb.
Short interests in Boss rose 1.22% in the week up to December 16 to 24.57% with short interests in Paladin slipping by -1.34% to 13.32%.
Boss remains the most shorted stock on the ASX200 with Paladin slipping to fourth position. Lotus Resources ((LOT)) sits in eighteenth position at 8.29% shorted, up from 8.07% a week previously.
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) stands at 7.69%, up 0.47% on the week.
For more weekly updates on uranium, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/16/uranium-week-sprott-buying-asx-upgrades/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/09/uranium-week-ai-and-nuclear-converge/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/02/uranium-week-u308-catches-genesis-tailwinds/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/25/uranium-week-geo-politics-japans-restart/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/18/uranium-week-risk-off-rules/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/11/uranium-week-biggest-spot-fall-since-march/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 19/12/2025 | 0.0800 |  -11.11% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 19/12/2025 | 0.1700 |  3.23% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 19/12/2025 | 0.0300 | – 4.17% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 133.3% | |
| AKN | 19/12/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 19/12/2025 | 0.0700 | – 1.52% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 19/12/2025 | 0.6000 | 14.15% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 19/12/2025 | 3.4900 | 10.06% | $4.07 | $1.76 | $5.100 | 46.1% | |
| BOE | 19/12/2025 | 1.2800 | -19.08% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 6.3 | $1.907 | 49.0% |
| BSN | 19/12/2025 | 0.0400 | – 6.82% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 19/12/2025 | 0.0210 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 19/12/2025 | 0.2700 | 6.38% | $0.27 | $0.06 | $0.300 | 11.1% | |
| CXU | 19/12/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 19/12/2025 | 0.1800 | 9.38% | $0.20 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 19/12/2025 | 1.8900 | 1.69% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -48.5 | $1.955 | 3.4% |
| EL8 | 19/12/2025 | 0.2700 | 8.00% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 19/12/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 19/12/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| GUE | 19/12/2025 | 0.0700 | -14.29% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 19/12/2025 | 0.1800 | 10.00% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 19/12/2025 | 0.2400 | 8.70% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 19/12/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 19/12/2025 | 0.6300 | – 3.08% | $0.88 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 19/12/2025 | 0.1900 | 8.57% | $0.26 | $0.13 | $0.337 | 77.2% | |
| MEU | 19/12/2025 | 0.1200 | 4.76% | $0.15 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 19/12/2025 | 13.8900 | – 5.01% | $15.21 | $6.44 | $15.375 | 10.7% | |
| ORP | 19/12/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 19/12/2025 | 9.7300 | 1.56% | $9.95 | $3.93 | 80.3 | $9.843 | 1.2% |
| PEN | 19/12/2025 | 0.6700 | 20.00% | $1.61 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 98.5% | |
| SLX | 19/12/2025 | 8.6500 | 3.07% | $10.85 | $2.28 | $11.200 | 29.5% | |
| TOE | 19/12/2025 | 0.4200 | 0.00% | $0.52 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 19/12/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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