The Overnight Report: Gold, Silver Rock Records

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This story features MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MND
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets moved risk off with technology stocks weighing on the Nasdaq while precious metals continued to rally on global geo-political tensions.

After a third straight positive session on Wednesday, ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive start.

Good Morning,

Australian shares rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, supported by advances in energy and mining stocks.

The ASX200 rose 12 points or 0.14% to close at 8,821.

Financials lagged as selling weighed on the four big banks.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research

There’s been a mild risk-off tone to markets. Tech and consumer discretionary have led the S&P500 down about -0.5%, albeit significantly offset by buoyancy in energy stocks. 

Two things did not happen overnight. First, the US Supreme Court did not publish its opinion on tariffs (next week is now a possibility, but it’s also possible this drags on until mid-year).

Second, the “help” President Trump promised to Iranian protesters on social media didn’t arrive. While reports the US military is evacuating a base in Qatar didn’t have an obvious immediate market impact, wariness around the situation is clearly hanging over markets and contributing to the risk-off tone. 

Very late in the session, however, President Trump said the “killing in Iran is stopping” and oil rapidly fell.

IG’s Tony Sycamore reports:

“WTI Crude Oil is trading at $59.80 (-2.08%), having plunged more than -5% early this morning from the nearly twelve-week high of $62.36 it reached earlier in the session.

“The sharp reversal occurred after US President Trump stated he had been informed that the “killing in Iran is stopping” and that there are “no plans for executions.” These comments saw a significant portion of the geopolitical risk premium recently built into prices unwound as fears of disruptions to Iran’s approximately 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of exports eased.

“The pullback is notable as it comes from the 200-day moving average currently at $62.37 – a level that crude oil has not traded above since August 2025.” 

The softness in equities came in part from investor disappointment with some earnings and outlooks (mostly in the financial sector, where Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo reported), but also from a re-assertion of the rotation trade. Chipmakers and tech are down (NASDAQ down -1.0%), while the Russell 2000 is up.

Late in the overnight session, the Beige Book painted a reasonable picture of US economic activity. Eight of twelve districts reported activity increasing at a slight or moderate pace — doubling from November. Only New York reported declining activity.

Consumer spending was described as K-shaped: high-income consumers are increasing spending, but low- to moderate-income households are becoming hesitant. Overall, “outlooks for future activity were mildly optimistic.”

Earlier, US retail sales for November ex-autos and gas printed slightly stronger than consensus at up 0.4%. October was revised down a little, tempering momentum somewhat. PPI data for both October and November were released simultaneously, showing flat core PPI in November.

The detail across CPI and PPI data to hand has led several forecasters to lift their core PCE forecasts a touch, with most in the 2.8–2.9% range. Bond yields arrested a steady slide lower around the data releases but eventually resumed tracking down to close near the lows of the day.

A bevy of Fed speakers were on the wires and offered views spanning most of the policy-stance spectrum. Speaking early in the local session yesterday, Richmond Fed President Barkin said the December CPI report was “encouraging,” but noted producers may seek to restore margins.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said policy needs to stay restrictive, and Kashkari is in a similar place. More dovish was Paulson, who thinks modest cuts in 2026 could be appropriate, and (unsurprisingly) Miran, who cites deregulation as a looming deflationary force. Miran’s comments helped widen US swap spreads.

Yesterday, China’s December trade data beat expectations: exports rose 6.6% y/y (vs 3.1% expected) and imports rose 5.7% y/y (vs 0.9%), leaving the trade surplus broadly steady around US$114bn.

For 2025, the goods surplus hit roughly US$1.2trn, underscoring the pivot away from the US (Africa up 26%, ASEAN up 13% in 2025). Any positive impact on Chinese stocks, however, was short-lived as the China Securities Regulatory Commission shortly afterward announced the minimum margin requirement for new margin trades will be lifted from 80% to 100%.

In local markets, a -0.2% q/q dip in Australian job vacancies (-5.2% y/y) to around 327k keeps the gradual cooling story intact, but the signal remains too mild to shift the RBA dial.

The unemployed-per-vacancy ratio ticked a little higher, though it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Public-sector vacancies rose 1.8% q/q, more than offset by a -0.5% q/q fall in private openings.

Rates and FX markets didn’t react materially, with next week’s labour force/unemployment print the more important input ahead of the February RBA meeting, where the market prices circa 7bp of tightening.

New Zealand showed a modest increase in filled jobs (up 0.3% m/m).

Commodities update, ANZ Australian Morning Focus extract

Crude oil extended gains as tensions in the Middle East rose earlier in the session, before President Trump’s comments. The US National Security Council is due to meet Tuesday to prepare options for the president. The geopolitics overshadowed a relatively bearish US inventory report.

US crude oil stockpiles rose by 3.4mbbl last week, the biggest increase in two months. However, it was smaller than forecast by a private sector report earlier in the week. Chinese trade data painted a better picture of demand. Imports of crude oil rose to 56mt, extending the recent upward trend as refineries maintained high utilisation. Year-to-date imports reached 578mt (up 4.4% y/y), as strategic stockpiling continued amid lower prices. 

The unrest in Iran is raising concern about supply disruptions in the natural gas market. European gas futures pared earlier losses, hitting their highest level since October following reports of US personnel being moved away from potential military targets. Earlier in the day, prices had been under pressure after weather forecasts showed milder conditions might settle in after another cold spell next week, potentially curbing demand for heating. 

North Asia LNG spot prices pushed back above US$10/MMBtu on colder weather conditions. Parts of Asia, including northwest China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan are set to be hit by a cold wave, which threatens to push demand for heating higher. The gains were tempered by forecasts of stronger supply. Estimated pipeline deliveries to all US LNG export terminals were about 20.3bcf/d on Monday, an all-time high. 

Base metals extended their strong start to the year, with sentiment supported by strong fundamentals. The latest trade data for China showed exports from Asia’s biggest economy are booming. Commodity trade data were positive. 

China’s refined copper imports held at 0.44mt, consistent with firm underlying demand despite weaker spot arbitrage. Copper concentrate imports remained robust at 2.70mt, with annual growth of 7.9%, suggesting strong smelting activity despite lower profit margins. 

Iron ore futures edged lower, despite signs of strong demand. China’s iron ore imports climbed to 120mt, maintaining strong momentum following earlier holiday restocking. Annual volumes reached 1.26bnt (up 1.8% y/y), reflecting ongoing support from steel mill replenishment, even as domestic output remains subdued. Demand appears to be driven by strong global demand offsetting weak domestic demand. Steel exports continued to be resilient at 11.30mt in December and grew by 7.5% to 120mt in 2025. 

Rising geopolitical tensions helped push precious metals higher. Gold and silver hit record highs as investor demand surges. The prospects for gold and silver remain positive in 2026. We see a multitude of supportive factors that will likely continue or even intensify as the year unfolds.

Supreme Court silence on Trump tariffs extends market risk, Nigel Green, deVere Group

The US Supreme Court’s decision not to rule on the legality of Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs keeps a major source of market uncertainty alive.

The court released three opinions Wednesday but offered no judgment on the tariff regime, leaving investors without legal clarity on a policy that has reshaped supply chains and pricing.

With no indication of when the justices will address the issue, markets are now forced to price an open-ended legal risk around a major US trade policy.

This is uncertainty being extended, not resolved and tariffs affect prices, margins and investment decisions.

The legal challenge to the tariffs goes to the heart of presidential authority over trade, while a clear decision would’ve given companies and investors a basis for planning. 

Instead, businesses continue to operate under rules that could ultimately be upheld, rewritten or struck down, but with no timeline for resolution.

This legal limbo has immediate implications for market behavior. 

When the legal status of a policy that affects trillions of dollars in global commerce remains unresolved, risk premiums rise across equities, currencies and credit.

For multinational companies, the impact is already being felt in boardrooms. Decisions on sourcing, pricing and capital investment remain provisional. 

Firms hesitate to commit long-term resources when the legal foundation of trade policy could shift suddenly.

Tariffs already distort supply chains and cost structures and add legal uncertainty and you magnify the effect. Investment slows, confidence weakens and growth expectations come under pressure.

Inflation remains central to the debate. Companies facing unpredictable future costs tend to build buffers into pricing strategies. Those buffers often land on consumers. The longer tariffs stay in legal doubt, the more likely firms are to maintain higher price assumptions across a wide range of goods which feeds straight into the macro-outlook. 

Unresolved trade policy pushes uncertainty into inflation forecasts and this shapes expectations for interest rates, bond yields and equity valuations. This becomes a market-wide issue.

Sectors most exposed to global trade are on the front line. Manufacturing, autos, technology hardware and retail all face heightened sensitivity to tariff outcomes.

Without judicial clarity, investors must model a wider range of scenarios, increasing volatility and widening valuation gaps between winners and losers.

Markets hate open-ended risk and when something this big stays undecided, traders and portfolio managers price for instability.

The political dimension sharpens the impact. Tariffs remain a cornerstone of President Trump’s economic strategy. 

With the court silent, the policy stays in force but legally unresolved, leaving investors uncertain about durability and direction.

Tariffs remain, the legal question remains, and markets price the gap. When markets price uncertainty, volatility typically follows.

With no timetable for a ruling, attention now turns to every signal from Washington, from court calendars to policy messaging, for clues on when the tariff question will finally be settled. 

The unresolved status of Trump’s tariff regime remains a defining risk factor for global markets.

Corporate news in Australia

-Advent Partners is merging its radiology business with rival Radiology SA in a $700m deal.

-Monadelphous ((MND)) has secured a $300m, five-year maintenance deal with Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

-Endeavour Group ((EDV)) is considering the sale of its vineyard and wine making business.

-BlueScope Steel ((BSL)) announced a $1 per share special dividend.

-Macquarie Group ((MQG)) is looking at exit options for Bingo Industries.

-Nine Entertainment ((NEC)) is apparently considering the Quadrant sale of QMS Media.

On the calendar today:

-AU MI Jan Consumer Infla Expectations

-US Nov Export/Import Indexes

-US Weekly Jobless Claims

-ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED ((ALC)) Dec Qtr Report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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