Weekly Reports | 10:45 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Uranium stocks including Paladin Energy rallied on higher weekly spot U308 price and SPUT looking to raise more funds.
- Paladin Energy delivers a stand out 2Q update, sending shorters scrambling
- Analysts query FY26 guidance and stock's valuation at current levels
- U308 spot price rallies 7.3% to date in 2026, up 23.7% year-on-year
By Danielle Ecuyer
Paladin’s Langer Heinrich beats expectations
A groan of frustration, metaphorically speaking, emerged from Ord Minnett’s analyst regarding Paladin Energy’s ((PDN)) second quarter update. The title of the analysis says it all, “Under promise, over deliver”.
The result was enough to see a sharp share price reaction, up over 13% as the second highest ASX300 mover on the day, most likely boosted by a short squeeze as one of the most shorted stocks on the market in the run up to the announcement.
While a few updates from FNArena’s daily monitored brokers are not yet available, the consensus from those available applauded a resounding production beat for the December quarter.
Macquarie notes U308 production from Langer Heinrich of 1.23mlbs was 20% above consensus forecasts on higher throughput (1.21mt) and grade (524ppm).
Second quarter grade compares to 447ppm in the first quarter, with recoveries up to 91% against 86% in the prior quarter.
Positively, production costs at US$39/lb came in below both the Macquarie analyst’s forecast and consensus due to the capitalisation of low-grade ore going to stockpile, equating to -US$11m. Otherwise, the cost through the P&L would have been US$48/lb.
Ord Minnett highlights sales also came in above consensus by 21% and stresses disagreement with management’s reticence to upgrade FY26 production guidance as Langer Heinrich mine production would need to fall to achieve the upper end of guidance at 4.4mlb, while experiencing further grade improvements, recoveries, and mill throughput.
Paladin is also doubling the size of its mining fleet early in the current quarter, with delivery expected in January, which is expected to access higher-grade ore feed.
Ord Minnett forecasts FY26 production of 4.7mlbs, some 7% above guidance, and sales of 4.4mlb which aligns with guidance.
Langer Heinrich is anticipated to reach full production in six months, noting the second quarter has alleviated investor concerns around the ramp up problems which have plagued the miner over the last 18 months.
Brokers split on valuation
Ord Minnett remains Sell rated with a higher target of $9.75, up from $7.50, and stands out amidst broker updates received to be the lowest target and most negative.
This analyst believes the stock is priced for “excellence”, which means any miss, as has been evident a year ago and in late 2024, could be adverse for shareholders.
The view may change subject to the upcoming analysts tour to Namibia mid February and the restart of drilling in Patterson Lake South in Canada.
Morgan Stanley updated its model post the quarterly, which results in FY26 EPS forecast now expected to show a profit based on stronger than anticipated production and sales.
A slight -13% downward revision in FY27 EPS is flagged due to changes in the Langer Heinrich ramp up profile. The analyst is forecasting FY26 production of 4.66kt and shipments of 4.33kts at a cost of US$49.9lb.
Target price advances to $14.45 alongside an Overweight (Buy-equivalent) rating.
Macquarie raises its EPS forecast for FY26 by 40% and ups the target price by 11% to $12.35 after including the better Langer Heinrich ramp up and lower debt levels.
Canaccord Genuity retains its Buy rating on the stock and lifts the target to $13.60 from $12.70, pointing to the proportion of fresh ore feed into the mill as the main reason for the better 2Q26 result.
A more “consistent” feed facilitated record throughput and recoveries which rose 5% on the prior quarter and the transition away from the lower-grade stockpile permitted a 16% q/q lift in average processed grade.
Average realised price rose 7% on the quarter to US$71.8lb which aligns with Canaccord’s forecast and sits slightly above consensus at US$70/lb.
Re cost guidance, management has maintained US$44-US$48/lb which infers a rise in mining costs over 2H26 as a higher proportion of higher cost mined ore against lower cost stockpiles feed the mill.
Capex at Langer Heinrich declined by -68% on the prior quarter to -US$3.7m and came in lower than the broker’s -US$11.4m forecast and consensus at -US$5.5m.
Patterson Lake South winter drill program started in January at Saloon East, with Paladin considered well positioned with Langer Heinrich generating positive cash flow and $340m in liquids.
Uranium mining stocks continued to perform well last week, not only boosted by Paladin’s better than expected quarterly report but also supporfted by the ongoing rise in the U308 spot price.
In other corporate news, Lotus Resources ((LOT)) completed a 11.5-for-1 share consolidation post shareholder approval at the January 16 EGM.
Canaccord Genuity also highlights NexGen Energy ((NXG)) announced the result from the 2025 Patterson Corridor East (PCE) program which showed ongoing expansion of mineralisation.
The high-grade core expanded materially, and recent step-out results suggest the mineralised system is larger and more complex than previously defined, including early indications of a potential second high-grade zone developing at depth.
NexGen plans its largest-ever PCE drill campaign in 2026, targeting further high-grade growth, testing possible repetition of basement-hosted mineralisation, and commencing first-pass drilling at the nearby SW3 prospect (SW3 is a prospect located around 20km south east of the Arrow deposit, distinct from the Patterson Corridor East discovery), with key near-term catalysts centred on drilling results and regulatory milestones at Arrow.
The stock remains Speculative Buy rated with a CA$18.50 target.
Rising U308 prices and SPUT activity add sector tailwinds
As highlighted by industry consultants TradeTech, the weekly spot price rose US$2.85 to US$88/lb which involved seven transactions for 650klbs. The latest rise brings the U308 spot price rise to 7.3% thus early into 2026, a cracker of a start to the calendar year.
The U308 spot price is up 23.7% from the same period in 2025.
The market has been focused on the Sprott Uranium Trust (SPUT) and its filing earlier in the week to offer, from time to time, over a 25 month period up to US$2bn of transferable, non-redeemable units with the final prospectus filed on January 22.
SPUT now has the flexibility to raise capital quickly if market conditions, investor demand, and its unit price relative to NAV allow it to do so. This means participants will continue to keenly watch the trust’s activities because any sustained issuance by SPUT has the potential to materially impact spot uranium liquidity and pricing.
TradeTech also notes three transactions and no new demand in the term market. President Trump’s proclamation last week about national security threats posed by the importation of critical minerals has resulted in the market seeking more certainty around the potential impacts to the U308 market, both spot and term.
The TradeTech MidTerm U308 price indicator stands at US$86.50/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$87/lb.
Short interest update
As of January 19, ASIC sourced short positions show Boss has moved from first to second most shorted stock on the ASX at 16.27%, down -3.19% over the prior week.
Paladin is down by -0.61% to 11.87% from 12.48% and sits in fifth position. Deep Yellow is in 18th position at 7.72%.
For more details on short positions for ASX-listed entities: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/the-short-report/
For more uranium updates from FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/20/uranium-week-2026-off-to-the-races/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/23/uranium-week-boss-is-the-honeymoon-over/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/16/uranium-week-sprott-buying-asx-upgrades/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/09/uranium-week-ai-and-nuclear-converge/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/12/02/uranium-week-u308-catches-genesis-tailwinds/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 23/01/2026 | 0.1400 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 23/01/2026 | 0.2200 |  10.00% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 23/01/2026 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 75.0% | |
| AKN | 23/01/2026 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 23/01/2026 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 23/01/2026 | 0.5900 | 11.32% | $0.70 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 23/01/2026 | 4.1800 | 4.50% | $4.20 | $1.76 | $5.275 | 26.2% | |
| BOE | 23/01/2026 | 1.8700 | 3.89% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 10.6 | $1.800 |  – 3.7% |
| BSN | 23/01/2026 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 23/01/2026 | 0.0300 | 50.00% | $0.07 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 23/01/2026 | 0.2900 | 3.57% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.300 | 3.4% | |
| CXU | 23/01/2026 | 0.0400 | 33.33% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 23/01/2026 | 0.2400 | 26.32% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 23/01/2026 | 2.3400 | 6.85% | $2.49 | $0.75 | -60.0 | $2.083 | -11.0% |
| EL8 | 23/01/2026 | 0.4000 | 5.26% | $0.50 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 23/01/2026 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.00 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 23/01/2026 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 23/01/2026 | 0.1700 | – 5.56% | $0.25 | $0.04 | |||
| I88 | 23/01/2026 | 0.3000 | 11.11% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 23/01/2026 | 0.0500 | 25.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 23/01/2026 | 0.8400 | 13.51% | $0.88 | $0.55 | |||
| LOT | 23/01/2026 | 0.2300 | 0.00% | $3.06 | $1.56 | $3.680 | 1500.0% | |
| MEU | 23/01/2026 | 0.1700 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 23/01/2026 | 18.3000 | 4.81% | $18.37 | $6.44 | -173.9 | $18.500 | 1.1% |
| ORP | 23/01/2026 | 0.0700 | 16.67% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 23/01/2026 | 13.3100 | 12.42% | $13.43 | $3.93 | 108.2 | $11.464 | -13.9% |
| PEN | 23/01/2026 | 1.0100 | 12.22% | $1.43 | $0.28 | $1.330 | 31.7% | |
| SLX | 23/01/2026 | 7.1500 | 0.42% | $10.85 | $2.28 | -89.4 | $11.200 | 56.6% |
| TOE | 23/01/2026 | 0.5700 | 9.62% | $0.59 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 23/01/2026 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED