In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 13-02-26

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This story features CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CQE
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT ((CQE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis suggests the recent sell-off in Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT shares creates an attractive entry point.

Earnings accretive capital recycling continues, combined with strong organic rental growth to offset the impact of higher debt costs.

The REIT is attractively valued at a -26% net tangible asset discount following a -16% sell-off over the past five months. Moelis upgrades near-term estimates driven by higher-yield asset remixing, with a more hawkish rate outlook offsetting these gains in FY28.

Target price increases to $3.55 from $3.39, upgrade to Buy from Hold.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Charter Hall Retail REIT has transitioned over the last two years to having just 46% of shopping centres in its portfolio from being a pure convenience shopping centre owner, and the remixing of its property portfolio has been largely earnings accretive, Moelis notes.

Continued capital recycling, a -40 basis points reduction in debt margins and timely hedge activity have largely offset the impact of higher interest rates on the outlook.

Following a -11% decline in the share price over the past six months, the broker considers the stock now in value territory and upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $4.48 from $4.33.

FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC ((FCL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis upgrades Fineos Corp to Buy from Hold, noting successful execution of large scale projects has underpinned the company’s competitive position.

The business has set clear medium to longer term goals with management targeting 75% of revenue from subscriptions in FY29 and 40% EBITDA margins, with slowing investment in R&D.

The broker ascertains 2025 guidance is aligned with progress towards these goals. FX headwinds will deliver revenue at the lower end of guidance, commentary points out, which adds to some uncertainty about estimates for 2026.

Currency is an external factor and does not detract from underlying progress, Moelis adds. Target is $3.27.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

A4N    ALPHA HPA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $0.70

Canaccord Genuity rates ((A4N)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord initiates coverage on Alpha HPA at Speculative Buy with a $1.20 target, arguing the market is under pricing the Gladstone HPA First opportunity in high purity alumina used in lithium-ion batteries, LEDs and semiconductor applications.

The broker sees tightening ex-China supply, with demand expected to outpace new supply through 2030.

Pricing assumptions have been lifted, supported by recent open orders averaging around US$29.6/kg.

Canaccord believes the project offers strong operating leverage, with earnings (EBITDA) breakeven achievable at roughly 19% of nameplate capacity.

This report was published on February 6, 2026.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.5
If A4N meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.33.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 175.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AEM    ADVANCED ENERGY MINERALS LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $0.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AEM)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage of Advanced Energy Minerals at Speculative Buy with a $1.15 target.

The broker sees the company as a near-term beneficiary of rising demand for high purity alumina used in semiconductors and lithium-ion batteries.

Stage 1 at the Cap-Chat project is expected to ramp to 3,000tpa, with longer-term expansion to 6,000tpa positioning the company as a meaningful ex-China supplier.

Canaccord highlights the low-carbon process and modular expansion pathway as key differentiators in securing customer offtake.

This report was published on February 6, 2026.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.64
If AEM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 125% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.14.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $11.25

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Buy (1) –

First half results from Credit Corp missed expectations and Canaccord Genuity notes the stock has slumped to near two-year lows. While acknowledging there are questions, the broker reminds investors this has occurred before.

The main dynamic in play is the timing of provisioning and marketing within Australasian lending.

Overall, Canaccord Genuity expects earnings growth should move into low double-digit territory while the valuation is at decade lows and this should provide an opportunity in time. Buy. Target is reduced to $19.70 from $21.60.

This report was published on February 3, 2026.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $11.25 Difference: $8.45
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 151.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.45.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 83.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW    DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $7.92

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DOW)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage of Downer EDI with a positive stance, arguing the company has emerged from a multi-year reset with a simpler structure, improved margins and more predictable earnings.

The broker highlights Downer’s refocus on essential services across transport, energy and facilities, which is reducing exposure to large, higher-risk construction contracts while lifting return quality.

A substantial divestment program since 2023 has sharpened the earnings profile and strengthened cash generation, supporting ongoing debt reduction and dividends.

Canaccord sees scope for steady margin expansion and earnings growth from FY26, underpinned by long-dated contracts and strong work-in-hand visibility. Buy initiated with an $8.58 target.

This report was published on January 29, 2026.

Target price is $8.58 Current Price is $7.92 Difference: $0.66
If DOW meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 109.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDF    GARDA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.17

Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Buy (1) –

Garda Property has upgraded guidance, expecting lending to make up 46% of revenue in FY26. This has led to a 10% upgrade to FY26 EPS guidance. More growth is expected as vacant industrial space is leased.

Moelis increases its earnings profile in line with guidance, underpinned by a larger lending book and offset by a slower letting period at Acacia Ridge. Buy rating and $1.62 target retained.

This report was published on February 6, 2026.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.45
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.73.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILA    ISLAND PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.42

Research as a Service (RaaS) rates ((ILA)) as No Rating (-1) –

Island Pharmaceuticals has announced feedback from the US FDA on how to progress Galidesivir for approval under the Animal Rule pathway. The FDA provided guidance for regulatory alignment and this is considered a further de-risking event for the business as no more clarifying questions were required.

Pivotal study efficacy results are likely to be available in late 2026. Separately, the company has also raised $9m in a placement at $0.35 a share. It is now fully funded to complete the program and make its new drug submission.

It will become the first Australian biotech to deliver a drug by the Animal Rule pathway. Research as a Service (RaaS) provides a $1.24 valuation, raised from $1.14.

Research as a Service (RaaS) research doesn’t carry any targets, ratings or recommendations. Investors can draw conclusions from valuations and commentary.

This report was published on February 6, 2026.

Target price is $1.24 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.82
If ILA meets the Research as a Service (RaaS) target it will return approximately 195% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Research as a Service (RaaS) forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.73.

Forecast for FY27:

Research as a Service (RaaS) forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.94.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NMG    NEW MURCHISON GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.07

Taylor Collison rates ((NMG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

New Murchison Gold has moved quickly from first production to become a larger-scale producer, Taylor Collison observes.

Commentary highlights December quarter production has confirmed the Crown Prince can generate meaningful cash from high-grade oxide ore, with softer material unlocking additional capacity at the Westgold Bluebird mill and allowing the company to sell more ore than originally agreed.

There is no debt and no hedging and the business is no longer constrained to a single development pathway.

The broker envisages material upside if operating performance exceeds expectations, and the market would then be likely to price the stock as a scalable, multi-asset producer. Target is 7.9 cents. Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on February 3, 2026.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.009
If NMG meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TTM    TITAN MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.97

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TTM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Titan Minerals has reported further strong drill results from the Cerro Verde prospect at its Dynasty Gold Project in Ecuador, extending mineralisation below the current 3.1Moz resource.

Canaccord Genuity notes extensional drilling at Brecha-Comanche has more than doubled the vertical extent of mineralisation to around 400m below surface, supporting confidence in additional ounces ahead of a March resource update.

Speculative Buy rating retained with a $1.95 target.

This report was published on February 5, 2026.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.98
If TTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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