Weekly Reports | 11:00 AM
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Activity in the U308 spot market trended lower as uncertainty over the Middle East war kept participants on the sideline until the end of the week.
- Paladin Energy shares upgraded post share price retreat
- Europe makes further commitments to fund and support nuclear energy and SMRs
- Sulfur shortages from Strait of Hormuz potentially impact Lotus Resources
- Term U308 market has utilities seeking for more certainty
By Danielle Ecuyer
Profit taking and risk off hits Paladin shares, prompting an upgrade
Share prices for major Australian U308 producers have retreated since the start of the Iran war, with Paladin Energy ((PDN)) shares down almost -20% from its recent $14 high.
The pullback has prompted Citi to re-iterate its Buy rating on the stock, lifting the target to $12.80 from $9 due to positive factors supporting the business.
The 1H26 production of around 2.3mlbs at Langer Heinrich inferred an annual run rate of around 4.6mlbs versus reconfirmed guidance at 4-4.4mlbs. Citi views the latter as “prudent” given previous issues with water and stockpiles, prompting downgrades.
The Enviromental Impact Statement (EIS) approval on February 20 also de-risks the Patterson Lake South project, with investors looking to the next major step, the approval from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, which the analyst believes is low risk.
The global commodities team at Citi remains “bullish” on the outlook for U308 and forecasts prices of around US$104/lb on average through 2026. The market is also viewed as moving into a structural deficit, with 2025 reactor demand of around 194mlb exceeding mine supply of circa 175mlb.
Macquarie makes similar observations, upgrading the stock to Outperform from Neutral on the share price retreat, while the interim result suggests FY26 production guidance is modest and poses upside risks, not unlike peers at Citi.
The current share price implies an uranium price of US$77.20/lb and the recent provincial approval for its Canadian Patterson Lake project is also a de-risking event for the producer.
EPS forecasts are adjusted lower due to higher mining cost assumptions at Langer Heinrich, which results in a slight downgrade in the target price by -4% to $13.50.
FNArena’s daily monitored brokers have a consensus target of $13.067 with four Buy-equivalent ratings, one Neutral/Hold, and one Sell rating.
Paladin is Macquarie’s top pick among ASX-listed U308 producers.
The International Atomic Energy Agency summit takes centre stage
“Nuclear power is not simply a nice to have, or a cleaner option. It is a strategic opportunity and we know it.
“When we speak about development, we speak about electrification, digitalisation and artificial intelligence, in all these areas, we will need reliable and predictable answers.
“Nuclear energy is one of those answers. As the global hub of expertise across the nuclear lifecycle, the IAEA will continue supporting countries as they move to seize it.”
Dixit IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi at the recent Nuclear Energy Summit hosted by France.
President Macron opened the ceremony of the summit:
“Nuclear power is a source of progress and prosperity because it is a source of energy, particularly for electricity generation, which allows us to reconcile three objectives that are central to our ambitions: we want competitiveness, that is, energy produced at the lowest possible cost, we want to solve the planet’s problems by reducing CO2 emissions, and we want greater independence.”
Key topics included the development of new financing mechanisms to support nuclear programs, with President Macron pointing to increased involvement in both public and private markets.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced the creation of a EUR200m guarantee, financed through the EU carbon market, to support the development of small modular reactors (SMRs).
Von der Leyen also noted Europe’s share of nuclear power had declined to 15% currently from around one third of Europe’s electricity generation in 1990 and, in prospect of climate challenges, she described the fall in nuclear energy as a “strategic mistake”.
Major financial institutions, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB), are moving to increased involvement in projects related to the long-term operation of existing reactors, as well as the construction of new large reactors and SMRs.
The institutions had previously excluded nuclear from its financing activities, limiting involvement to decommissioning or waste management.
Electricite de France created an advisory board committed to the financing of civil nuclear power, which will bring together banks and public investment bodies such as Caisse des Depots to structure financing models.
The summit also highlighted the international coalition committed to tripling nuclear capacity by 2050, with 38 states endorsing the ambition including the latest additions of China, Brazil, Italy and Belgium.
In other news, South Korea is accelerating the restart of six nuclear reactors this month, as oil prices spike because of the Middle East war and the blockade by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz.
Around 70% of South Korea’s oil imports cross the Strait.
Morgan Stanley noted also 50% of seaborne sulphur transits through the Strait, which has potential supply challenges for DxEw copper production, HPAL nickel production, as well as cobalt and uranium.
One tonne of sulfur produced from the refineries can make three tonnes of sulfuric acid.
Regarding U308 there is less exposure to the Middle East with Russia supplying Kazakhstan and Canada is self-sufficient.
For Lotus Resources ((LOT)), the acid and diesel disruptions in the Middle East pose a risk to the ramp up at Kayelekera, as pointed out by Macquarie, although management still expects uranium shipments in 2Q2026 with the acid plant reconstruction “practically complete”.
The broker lowers EPS forecasts for higher pre-production costs and lower U308 sales, with Macquarie’s target price tweaked down by -8% to $2.75. An Outperform (Buy-equivalent) rating is retained.
Conversely, Boss Energy ((BOE)) has a sulphuric acid advantage with cost/availability via fixed pricing with Port Pirie.
While 3Q26 production has been limited due to heavy rain, production is expected to restart on March 14 and the new feasibility study is considered a driver of long term value for the producer, Macquarie highlights.
Boss remains Underperform (Sell-equivalent) rated with an unchanged target price of $1.30.
Term U308 markets more active than the spot market
As geopolitics continue to weigh on global equity markets, the general risk off sentiment has permeated the spot U308 market, as outlined by industry consultants TradeTech.
The weekly spot U308 price indicator rose slightly to US$85.50/lb from US$85/lb, with the market moribund over the first three days of trade last week due to uncertainty around the Middle East war.
By Thursday, two transactions were conducted, one for 50klbs of U308 at US$85/lb for delivery at Cameco in April, and another for 100klb at US$86/lb for delivery at Orano in April.
On Friday, three transactions followed. The first for 50klbs at US$85.75/lb for delivery at Orano, a second for the same price and transaction details, and a third for another 50klbs at US$84.75/lb for delivery at Cameco in May.
As noted by TradeTech, the buyers are generally favouring delivery at ConverDyn’s Metropolis, Illinois conversion facility in the US or Orano’s facility in France.
The term U308 market has been more active with several utilities selecting preferred suppliers for delivery spanning first delivery in 2027 to delivery extending into the mid 2030s.
Offers are due on Monday 16 March to one US utility that issued a Request for Proposal seeking up to 1.5mlbs U308 for delivery between 2031 and 2036.
The TradeTech Mid term price indicator stands at US$88/lb and the Long term price indicator at US$90/lb.
The weekly spot price is up 4.3% year to date in 2026 and 35.7% on the same period last year.
Boss Energy shorts drop over the last year
The latest short interests as at March 10 show Boss Energy in seventh position at 11.42%, down from 17.13% a month earlier.
Paladin sits in eleventh position with a short interest of 9.59%, up slightly from a month earlier at 9.43%.
Silex Systems ((SLX)) sits in twelfth position at 9.19% from 9.07% a month previously, but up 1.31% on the previous week.
Lotus Resources has seen a rise in short position to 7.11% from 5.87% (up 1.24%) over the last week, with Boss down -1.34% over the week.
For more reading on U308 from FNArena see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/10/uranium-week-nexgen-energy-a-key-pick/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/03/uranium-week-prices-reset-lower-in-february/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/24/uranium-week-burgeoning-supercycle/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/10/uranium-week-volatility-kicks-up-a-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/03/uranium-week-back-above-us100lb/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 13/03/2026 | 0.0600 |  12.07% | $0.16 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 13/03/2026 | 0.1200 | 4.17% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 13/03/2026 | 0.0400 | 9.52% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 75.0% | |
| AKN | 13/03/2026 | 0.0100 | 9.09% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 13/03/2026 | 0.0500 |  – 3.77% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 13/03/2026 | 0.4500 | – 2.13% | $0.70 | $0.42 | |||
| BMN | 13/03/2026 | 3.7100 | 0.76% | $5.25 | $1.76 | $5.600 | 50.9% | |
| BOE | 13/03/2026 | 1.5000 | 4.29% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 14.7 | $1.600 | 6.7% |
| BSN | 13/03/2026 | 0.0400 | 20.00% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 13/03/2026 | 0.0300 | – 3.13% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 13/03/2026 | 0.2200 | 4.55% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.350 | 59.1% | |
| CXU | 13/03/2026 | 0.0300 | 4.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 13/03/2026 | 0.2100 | 7.89% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 13/03/2026 | 1.8200 | – 0.50% | $2.97 | $0.75 | -73.1 | $2.290 | 25.8% |
| EL8 | 13/03/2026 | 0.2800 | 0.00% | $0.50 | $0.20 | |||
| GUE | 13/03/2026 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 13/03/2026 | 0.1300 | – 7.41% | $0.25 | $0.05 | |||
| I88 | 13/03/2026 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 13/03/2026 | 0.0400 | 7.89% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 13/03/2026 | 0.8300 | 0.00% | $0.93 | $0.56 | |||
| LOT | 13/03/2026 | 1.4700 | – 3.94% | $3.20 | $1.56 | $3.533 | 140.4% | |
| MEU | 13/03/2026 | 0.1200 | 4.17% | $0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 13/03/2026 | 17.2200 | 6.15% | $20.47 | $6.44 | -14338.8 | $20.150 | 17.0% |
| ORP | 13/03/2026 | 0.0600 | 8.47% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 13/03/2026 | 11.0000 | 4.55% | $14.44 | $3.93 | 136.1 | $12.517 | 13.8% |
| PEN | 13/03/2026 | 0.5600 | – 1.67% | $1.08 | $0.28 | |||
| SLX | 13/03/2026 | 5.3900 | 6.01% | $10.85 | $2.28 | |||
| TOE | 13/03/2026 | 0.4700 | – 1.96% | $0.63 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 13/03/2026 | 0.0200 | 6.25% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
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