In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 20-03-26

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            [1] => ((LIC))
            [2] => ((HMC))
            [3] => ((RWC))
            [4] => ((SYR))
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            [3] => RWC
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This story features COLLINS FOODS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CKF
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Collins Foods has reported stronger second-half trading with same-store sales growth accelerating versus the first half, Jarden highlights. Guidance for mid-high teens profit growth was reaffirmed.

The broker notes the acquisition of eight Bavarian restaurants at around a 6x earnings multiple, expected to be immediately earnings accretive.

The transaction is expected to open a new German market and lift the company’s expansion target to 45-90 stores over four years.

FY26-FY28 profit forecasts rise by 2-5% after incorporating the acquisition and stronger trading momentum.

Jarden upgrades to Overweight from Neutral and raises its target price to $12.10 from $11.40.

LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Lifestyle Communities has attracted strategic interest, with Jarden noting HMC Capital ((HMC)) sold a 9.8% stake to Hometown Australia at $4.90, an 8% premium to market.

The buyer’s background is in the manufactured housing estate sector. No immediate takeover intentions were declared by Hometown. 

The analysts see operational challenges persisting for Lifestyle Communities, including slow sales, margin pressure, and balance sheet constraints limiting recovery potential.

The broke’s valuation rises on higher multiples reflecting takeover appeal despite ongoing risks.

Jarden upgrades to Neutral from Underweight and raises its target price to $6.25 from $5.75.

RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED ((RWC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden believes the value proposition in Reliance Worldwide is becoming hard to ignore.

The broker sees its view reinforced by the additional $120m buyback announcement and increasing an already compelling capital return profile for a stock that has de-rated to 11x from 13x one-year forward PE since the first half results.

At current levels, the broker believes valuation provides sufficient support for a more constructive stance although the copper-to-stainless transition remains a strategic shift that merits ongoing scrutiny.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $4.30 from $3.80.

Downgrade

SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED ((SYR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden lowers its target for Syrah Resources to 30c from 34c and downgrades to Neutral from Overweight.

The company faces a weaker outlook, the broker suggests, after the US International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled against duties on Chinese active anode material (AAM) imports, removing a key expected catalyst.

The broker highlights anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties rates of at least 160% will not proceed, reducing confidence in durable trade protection.

Increased risk to commercial agreements is envisaged, with Tesla’s offtake now vulnerable amid a shift in negotiating leverage.

The analysts see downside risks rising from ongoing cash burn, delayed Vidalia sales, and potential equity dilution.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

AL3    AML3D LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.18

Shaw and Partners rates ((AL3)) as Buy (1) –

AML3D has secured a $9.9m order for four custom Arcemy X systems from Newport News Shipping, a division of Huntington Ingalls, the largest US shipbuilder.

This order supports Shaw and Partners’ projections for FY27 revenue of $30m.

The company is expected to grow with US reshoring activity, strengthened by key partnerships including the US Navy and Boeing.

The broker asserts competitive differentiation makes the company a compelling investment opportunity and retains a Buy rating and $0.40 target.

This report was published on March 19, 2026.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.22
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.00.

Forecast for FY27:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 90.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.46

Moelis rates ((CNB)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis makes material revisions to its production and financial outlook for Carnaby Resources to better reflect updated information, with its valuation now incorporating the prefeasibility study and assuming additional equity.

Key is the low-capital path to commencement of production as the company will not require the construction of a concentrator, given the toll treatment agreement with Glencore.

The broker points out, from an economic perspective, this may not be the most value accretive approach, yet in the current market, investors are likely more interested in avoiding risk than academic arguments regarding the value of fixed infrastructure.

Buy rating and target reduced to $0.90 from $1.05.

This report was published on March 16, 2026.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.445
If CNB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.79.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COG COG FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.31

Shaw and Partners rates ((COG)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners notes leasing company share prices have dropped ahead of potential changes by the government to the electric vehicle fringe benefits tax exemption.

COG Financial Services, the broker asserts, is arguably factoring in an “improbable” -50% reduction to forecasts lease volumes, or -46% reduction versus FY26 estimates if a forward PE of 10x is considered to be fair value.

The broker believes it very unlikely lease volumes will drop to this extent. The company will capture an extra four months of the EasiFleet acquisition in FY27 and two thirds of its lease volume is financing petrol vehicles, a segment that is also growing.

Buy, High Risk retained. Target is $2.45.

This report was published on March 13, 2026.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $1.135
If COG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 58.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 45.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY27:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTM    CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CTM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Centaurus Metals has signed a binding nickel offtake agreement with Switzerland-based Glencore for the Jaguar project, marking a key commercial milestone, according to Canaccord Genuity.

Pricing is linked to LME nickel with by-product credits, alongside milestones including FID by September 2026 and first production by January 2029.

The deal covers 20,000tpa of concentrate, around one-third of planned output, observe the analysts, supporting financing ahead of a final investment decision (FID) targeted for the September quarter.

The agreement is seen as validating the project, with improving nickel market conditions also supportive.

Canaccord raises its target price to 85c from 80c and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on March 17, 2026.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.255
If CTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 119.00.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.58.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.02

Shaw and Partners rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1) –

DUG Technology has invested almost -$60m in high-performance computing infrastructure over the last several years and, as revenue now scales up and the required expenditure moderates, Shaw and Partners expects this to drive operating leverage and a re-rating of the stock.

Commentary highlights the business is favourably exposed to a rising oil price and has limited direct revenue exposure to the Middle East.

Having materially underperformed its O&G service peers, the broker reiterates a Buy, High Risk rating, transferring coverage to Jules Cooper.

Target is $3.00, down from $3.20.

This report was published on March 17, 2026.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.98
If DUG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.40.

Forecast for FY27:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.96.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAQ    MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $65.00

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAQ)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity considers a $200m investment from Australia’s National Reconstruction Fund a strong endorsement of the Macquarie Technology business and the quality of its cloud services & government offering in particular.

The instrument, with the company issuing up to $200m in hybrid securities to the NRF, will be on the balance sheet as non-dilutive equity and provide significant flexibility for future funding options.

Also a positive, the broker contends, is that the funds will be deployed to grow areas of the business outside the data centre segment. Buy rating and $95 target unchanged.

This report was published on March 11, 2026.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $65.00 Difference: $30
If MAQ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.90.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 154.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC    RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.72

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RIC)) as Buy (1) –

At its investor briefing, Ridley Corp announced a new three-year strategic plan which validated Canaccord Genuity’s expectations for sustained earnings growth over the medium term.

There are a range of existing initiatives and new and tangible updates that present upside risk to forecast. In particular, the broker is encouraged earnings in FY26 will not be materially affected by supply constraints in the Middle East.

The company expects FY26 group earnings to be driven by the nine months contribution from the fertiliser segment including a second-half seasonal peak in demand, as well as increased market share and volume-related operating efficiency in the bulk stockfeed segment. 

Buy rating and $3.52 target unchanged.

This report was published on March 11, 2026.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.8
If RIC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.13.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.75

Jarden rates ((SKO)) as Overweight (2) –

Serko’s investor day highlighted its strategy to scale corporate travel booking products, with Booking.com for Business (B4B) expected to remain the primary near-term earnings driver, Jarden reports.

The broker highlights accelerating B4B product development and improved conversion rates, alongside a new US target segment focused on workforce mobility corporates with high accommodation demand.

The company also unveiled Serko.ai, a conversational AI travel booking interface aimed at managed travel in North America, with beta testing set for April 2026 and a minimum viable product targeted by late 2026.

FY26 revenue guidance was narrowed to NZ$119-NZ$121m while spending guidance was reduced, reflecting efficiency gains.

Overweight rating and NZ$4.55 target price unchanged.

This report was published on March 10, 2026.

Current Price is $1.75. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 139.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 280.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SRV    SERVCORP LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $6.81

Jarden rates ((SRV)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden initiates coverage of Servcorp with an Overweight rating and $9.70 target.  The core thesis is the continued floor roll-out with a focus on the high-margin Saudi Arabian market.

The broker expects 9% compound growth in pre-tax profit over FY26-29 and considers this conservative, noting the company beat guidance in both FY24 and FY25.

Jarden would consider upgrading to Buy if the Middle East conflict is resolved, asserting the stock is relatively under-researched across the market and this presents an opportunity for a re-rating.

This report was published on March 16, 2026.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $6.81 Difference: $2.89
If SRV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 72.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.41.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 34.80 cents and EPS of 78.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.65.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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