Rudi's View | Jun 24 2026
This story features RESMED INC, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
The past century has witnessed Australian equities turning into the world's top performers, long term, but that's not necessarily how local investors perceive it. Especially not in 2026.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor
With less than two more weeks to go, it looks like total return for the year to June 30th might still be a reasonable outcome, thanks to an oversized contribution from dividends.
To date, total return for FY26 is approximately 7%.
But the internal market polarisation is huge, with large parts moribund or worse, causing a general sense of disappointment to grip the domestic investor community.
Judging from FNArena’s conversations recently, responses vary from “I’ve stopped looking at my portfolio” to “it’s all too hard, I’m out”, and various scenarios in between.
There’s simply no denying, the share market can be an ugly and frustrating beast, testing investor patience and resilience, but history shows it is seldom apposite to project the here and now far into the future.
In other words: this too shall pass, eventually. Just as day follows night and the year’s four seasons return in succession, time and again.
Those words might well prove their true worth when this year’s wave of tax loss selling has run its course.
The Markets They Are A-Changin’
Having said all of the above, financial markets are changing, potentially to never again revert back to their previous dynamics we became all too familiar with, and thus it is time to sit back and pay attention.
My humble view is that markets will increasingly be determined by short-term money flows, which translates into more volatility (often in excessive form) and more emphasis on momentum and popular fads, narratives and trends.
Why?
Because active ETFs, the democratisation of options (in the US), the gamification of trading, in addition to hedge funds, shorters, and automated trading are crowding out longer-term oriented asset managers, index funds and Buy-&-Hold strategies.
We’ve all seen the hefty increase in day-to-day volatility in the Australian share market with share price losses of -20% on the day no longer a rare occurrence.
At the same time, beneath an index that hasn’t performed too badly, considering circumstances, hides a polarised landscape that might well have never been witnessed before.
One statistic from FNArena tells the tale: more than 66% of all (our) broker ratings for ASX-listed companies is currently a Buy or equivalent. This percentage is higher than during the depth of the GFC.
No doubt, for those investors holding the ‘wrong’ stocks in portfolio this year, it feels as if the GFC might well be happening once again.
Equally important: we are all swimming in the same pool. Current market dynamics and below the surface transformations are just as challenging for everyone else who invests in the ASX.
Note also: contrary to general perception, share markets in the US and elsewhere are just as polarised, but that’s a story for another time.
The All-Weather Portfolio Adjusts
Times have been tough also for the FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio as most of local market outperformers up until mid-last year have since been severely de-rated.
While yesteryear’s experience is unlikely to be replicated in the year(s) ahead, the market transformation taking place has led to multiple adjustments in the Portfolio’s investment approach.
We were never in favour of making large conviction calls. Risk management sits atop our priority ladder. We are even less keen now as we feel the risk for unforeseen disappointment has become much greater.
ResMed ((RMD)) is one such prime example.
Operationally, this company has steadily outperformed market forecasts, yet its share price has lost -40% since August last year, including outsized negative responses around result updates.
There are plenty of similar examples around, in particular among smaller cap companies. During result season, at times it seems the smallest imperfection will trigger outsized selling orders.
Anecdotal evidence suggests investment strategies based upon concentrated sector, style or macro calls have had a rough experience, which is to be expected when markets become highly rotational, more volatile, and momentum-driven.
Unless your strategy is to follow momentum no matter what, the key to share market survival is now called diversification.
Our self-imposed All-Weather mandate doesn’t allow the portfolio to include commodities, but we would otherwise. Extreme sector divergences show us why.
We never thought of the All-Weather Portfolio as one concentrated bet on one singular trend only, but the past twelve months –with a few rare exceptions only– firmly placed our Portfolio in the AI losers basket.
As said, it has been a rough time.
Our response has been to diversify within the mandate. We are still looking for High-Quality performers whose stamina most likely exceeds the one year ahead.
As such, the Portfolio now owns WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)), alongside Macquarie Group ((MQG)), Wesfarmers ((WES)), and, more recently, SGH Ltd ((SGH)).
As reported earlier, I have become a fan of diversified asset allocators, once they reach a certain level of maturity. Track records of the first three mentioned speak for themselves.
See also: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/06/11/rudis-view-diversified-asset-allocators/
Another Portfolio newcomer is Sigma Pharmaceuticals ((SIG)) which has all the key characteristics of what might it see developing into a future All-Weather performer.
Financial platform operator Hub24 ((HUB)) has been in the Portfolio for a long while.
As a relatively small cap trading on elevated multiples, which triggers excessive volatility during times of headwinds, we’ve always been hesitant to grow Portfolio exposure too large.
Recently, we’ve chosen to add competitor Netwealth Group ((NWL)) whose share price has been severely de-rated. Now, the Portfolio has double the exposure to the same favourable industry trend, but spread over two different risk profiles.
Lastly, we’ve chosen to keep more funds in cash during these challenging times, even forcing ourselves not to jump on apparant opportunities opening up.
Tax loss selling in June is likely to provide more opportunity once it’s done. Wall Street might have conniptions between now and the November midterms.
Probably even more important: result releases in August will bring out more excessive volatility, no doubt.
My curated selections and lists: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/
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