Rudi’s View: This Too Shall Pass, But Markets Are Changing

rudi-views
Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | 10:00 AM

The past century has witnessed Australian equities turning into the world's top performers, long term, but that's not necessarily how local investors perceive it. Especially not in 2026.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

With less than two more weeks to go, it looks like total return for the year to June 30th might still be a reasonable outcome, thanks to an oversized contribution from dividends.

To date, total return for FY26 is approximately 7%.

But the internal market polarisation is huge, with large parts moribund or worse, causing a general sense of disappointment to grip the domestic investor community.

Judging from FNArena's conversations recently, responses vary from "I've stopped looking at my portfolio" to "it's all too hard, I'm out", and various scenarios in between.

There's simply no denying, the share market can be an ugly and frustrating beast, testing investor patience and resilience, but history shows it is seldom apposite to project the here and now far into the future.

In other words: this too shall pass, eventually. Just as day follows night and the year's four seasons return in succession, time and again.

Those words might well prove their true worth when this year's wave of tax loss selling has run its course.

It's hard to argue share market dynamics have not changed, but is it a permanent transition?

It's hard to argue share market dynamics have not changed, but is it a permanent transition?

The Markets They Are A-Changin'

Having said all of the above, financial markets are changing, potentially to never again revert back to their previous dynamics we became all too familiar with, and thus it is time to sit back and pay attention.


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