Weekly Reports | Jul 13 2026
This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 6 to Friday July 10, 2026
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 17
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.66%; Hold 27.86%; Sell 6.48%
For the week ending Friday, July 10, 2026, FNArena recorded twelve upgrades and seventeen downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks from seven brokers monitored daily.
Deterra Royalties, whose principal asset is a royalty over BHP Group’s Mining Area C iron ore operation in Western Australia’s Pilbara region, received two ratings downgrades from respectively Macquarie and Morgan Stanley.
Macquarie’s downgrade followed a broader commodities review, which noted prices had weakened since mid-June, including falls of -4% for iron ore, -13% for aluminium, -2% for copper, -6% for spodumene and -3% for thermal coal.
The broker lowered its 2026 and 2027 iron ore price forecasts by –2% and –1%, respectively, but noted only a limited impact on Deterra’s earnings estimates, maintaining a $4.70 target and downgrading its rating to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds.
Morgan Stanley lowered its target for Deterra by -50c to $3.95 and downgraded to Underweight from Overweight following lower iron ore price projections and revised Mining Area C forecasts.
This broker still considers the Mining Area C royalty as a high-quality asset, with production forecast to rise to 146mt by FY28.
The tables below reveal reductions in target prices and earnings forecasts were materially larger than increases last week.
Digital conveyancer Pexa Group suffered a -19% fall in average target price after the regulator proposed a significant reduction in the fees it charges for electronic property settlements.
Management intends to fight back as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/06/pexa-to-contest-major-revenue-hit-in-australia/.
Metallurgical coal producer Coronado Global Resources and global defence shipbuilder Austal are next with falls in average targets of -15% and -12%, respectively.
Following the Macquarie commodity review (as mentioned earlier), the Outperform rating for Coronado was retained with a target of 40 cents, down from 60 cents.
At the upcoming June quarter performance update for the company, UBS expects a marked improvement in production and realised pricing. The broker’s focus will be on whether a turnaround for the Curragh Mine, located in the Bowen Basin of central Queensland, is translating into lower costs and stronger cash generation.
For Austal, Bell Potter noted its “massive” order book can be viewed as a double-edged sword, with growing workload increasing operational complexity.
Risks were highlighted around managing multiple steel shipbuilding programs simultaneously, potential margin pressure and labour shortages as the Henderson shipbuilding facility in Western Australia expands over the next 12-18 months.
Bell Potter retained a Hold rating for Austal and cut its target to $4.10 from $6.30.
Turning to falls in average earnings forecasts, here commodity stocks accounted for eight of the ten declines in the table below, led by 29Metals and Minerals 260.
While 29Metals’ average forecast fell for FY26, the FY27 estimate climbed after a review by Morgans on the outlook for copper.
Anticipating structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints, the broker raised its long-term copper price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increased its 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%.
Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices, in Morgans’ view.
Overall, the recent pullback in copper equities on the ASX is considered an attractive buying opportunity.
Minerals 260 last week announced its maiden ore reserve and preliminary feasibility study, confirming the company’s Bullabulling project in WA as one of Australia’s premier underdeveloped gold projects, according to Morgans.
A negative market reaction to the study is seen as highlighting concerns over the capital costs, rather than the project’s quality.
While funding requirements remain modest, debt assumptions by UBS were increased by $100m, and equity raising assumptions by the same amount, resulting in a -25-cent fall in this broker’s target to 90 cents.
Macquarie performed its monthly mark-to-market for gold equities under research coverage, resulting in lower near-term EPS forecasts for Bellevue Gold and Genesis Minerals.
In the prior week, management at Genesis also confirmed a definitive, binding proposal to merge with Vault Minerals via a scheme of arrangement.
Coronado Global Resources and Whitehaven Coal are next after the commodity review by Macquarie.
On the flipside, the average FY26 earnings forecast for medical technology company EchoIQ rose by around 48%. Ord Minnett raised its target by 20 cents to $2.00.
EchoIQ develops artificial intelligence software to help detect heart disease earlier using echocardiograms (heart ultrasounds). The aim is to assist doctors by identifying patients at risk of serious cardiovascular conditions that may otherwise be missed.
Management has recently completed a $110m capital raising as well as a data licencing agreement with Advara Heartcare, bringing access to up to one million echos (images and measurements) and accompanying patient records and data.
The analyst at Ord Minnett sees this development as facilitating the expansion of the company’s R&D pipeline into diseases which require images to be read for improved and effective diagnosis.
Financial platform operator Netwealth Group is next with an around 18% rise in average FY26 earnings forecast though the FY27 average slightly fell following a market update with updated guidance from management.
As part of an expansion into adjacent broking and private wealth markets, management also announced an agreement with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia, which has $40bn of assets under management.
For further details on this major new deal, management’s latest FY26 market update and FY27 guidance see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/10/netwealth-sacrifices-margin-for-growth/.
Zip Co, a provider of buy now, pay later services and digital consumer finance, received a near 8% boost to its consensus target price after UBS raised its target by $1.00 to $4.10.
Despite recent global uncertainty, this broker noted the US consumer has been “relatively resilient”, which should support strong transaction growth for Zip going into the fourth quarter.
The average target for Growthpoint Properties Australia also received a 6% fillip after Macquarie raised its target to $2.47 from $2.02 and upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
In a REIT sector review, most of the broker’s target price revisions were upgrades driven by a lower real bond yield leading to a moderation in capitalisation rate expansion assumptions.
Despite Growthpoint trading at a deep discount to direct market transaction evidence, Macquarie sees few near-term catalysts to improve demand in the REIT’s core office markets.
Macquarie’s most preferred exposures in the sector are Goodman Group, Mirvac Group, Arena REIT and DigiCo Infrastructure REIT.
Total Buy ratings remain historically elevated at 65.66%, with Sell ratings at just 6.48%, leaving 27.86% on Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/0
Boss Energy has reported increased confidence in the wider-spaced well fields at Honeymoon, which Macquarie notes, if proven, will enable a greater portion of lower-grade resource to be economic.
As the risk/reward has improved amid growing confidence in technical work, the company appears set to demonstrate the value that can be derived from its new approach.
The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.
Macquarie anticipates the company may be able to prove a new life-of-mine valuation case to investors with the feasibility study and investor presentation in August/September. Target improves to $1.75 from $1.30.
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/3/4
Morgan Stanley upgrades Beach Energy to Equal-weight from Underweight.
The analyst points out the fall in oil and share prices is offering a more attractive valuation and entry point ahead of the June quarterly updates.
Mark-to-market commodity prices result in 2026 EPS downgrades of around -1% to -28% for the energy sector versus the ASX200 Energy index which has declined by -15% over the last two months.
EPS forecasts for Beach are lowered by -23% for FY27 and -28% for FY28.
Target declines to 88c from $1.20. Industry view: In-Line.
GARDA PROPERTY GROUP ((GDF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.
Garda Property is upgraded to Buy from Hold as south-east Queensland industrial markets remain resilient and its private credit book is underpinning its asset base. Target is raised to $1.15 from $1.00.
GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA ((GOZ)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Macquarie maintains a preference for quality and earnings growth among A-REITs and makes valuation upgrades, driven by a -30 basis points contraction in the real bond yield. A lower real bond yield means moderating capitalisation rate expansion assumptions.
Growthpoint Properties Australia is expected to deliver FY26 FFO per share of 23.3c, the midpoint of guidance, with a distribution of 18.4c.
Macquarie notes the office portfolio is modern, A-grade and predominantly on the eastern seaboard while it is in the fringe and metro locations where there is high risk of vacancies.
At the results, the broker will be interested to find out if the momentum from significant leasing achieved in the office portfolio can be maintained with FY27 expiries.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $2.47 from $2.02.
HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.
HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold as confidence improves around its capacity to navigate a more cautious consumer environment. Target is raised to $1.36 from $1.25.
IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a “pullback opportunity” to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.
IGO Ltd is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight as it is now trading in line with valuation. The broker notes since April the stock is down -11%, and whilst suspended supply is returning, tightness should still support lithium in the current quarter.
Target is raised to $6.95 from $6.85. Industry View: Attractive.
NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/1/0
Ord Minnett found the update from Netwealth Group weaker than expected in terms of the net flows in FY26, while this is offset by a more confident outlook for FY27 and beyond. Management is aiming to double funds under administration over the next four years.
The EBITDA margin is also expected to resume improvement after a dip in FY27. Going forward, the broker finds there is more to be optimistic about and upgrades the rating to Accumulate from Hold.
Some of this confidence is underpinned by a new agreement with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, although underlying organic growth is also anticipated. Target rises to $26 from $25.
SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Morgans remains positive on copper, lifting its long-term price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increasing 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%. The broker anticipates structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints.
Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices.
Overall, the analysts see the recent pullback in copper equities as an attractive buying opportunity.
The target for South32 is raised by 40c to $4.90 and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a “pullback opportunity” to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.
US tariff decisions remain the risk in copper, yet the broker considers stockpiles as strategic with the downside capped if tariffs potentially push COMEX copper back to around US$6.85/lb.
Sandfire Resources is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight, as the stock is now within 5% of the target, which moves to $17.35 from $16.00. Industry view: Attractive.
SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Morgan Stanley upgrades Santos to Overweight from Equal-weight with the fall in oil and share prices offering a more attractive valuation and entry point ahead of the June quarterly updates.
Mark-to-market commodity prices result in 2026 EPS downgrades of around -1% to -28% for the energy sector versus the ASX200 Energy index which has declined by -15% over the last two months.
Target price for Santos lifts to $7.67 from $7.50. EPS forecasts are trimmed by -6% for FY26 and -22% for FY27.
Industry view In-Line.
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/5/1
Morgan Stanley upgrades Woodside Energy to Equal-weight from Underweight with the fall in oil and share prices offering a more attractive valuation and entry point ahead of the June quarterly updates.
Mark-to-market commodity prices result in 2026 EPS downgrades of around -1% to -28% for the energy sector versus the ASX200 Energy index which has declined by -15% over the last two months.
Woodside Energy’s target price is unchanged at $28. Industry view: In-Line.
WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED ((WPR)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/1
Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.
Waypoint REIT is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold as confidence improves around its capacity to navigate a more cautious consumer environment. Target is raised to $2.50 from $2.45.
Downgrade
ADAIRS LIMITED ((ADH)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Post Adairs’ FY26 trading update which revealed continuing weakness in Focus on Furniture, Morgans downgrades the stock to Accumulate from Buy.
The retailer is expected to generate positive sales growth at the mid-point of guidance of around 3.7% y/y with some improvement in gross margin over the 2H26. This is expected to continue into FY27.
Guidance around Mocka indicates ongoing strength in sales, with around 22% revenue growth. Focus on Furniture sales were indicated to decline at the midpoint of guidance and are significantly below the analyst’s forecast.
EPS forecasts are lowered to align with the latest guidance by -8% for FY26 and -19.4% for FY27. The target price is reduced to $1.70.
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0
AMP’s first half margins could be strong yet Macquarie envisages, if FY26 guidance is unchanged, there may be a lower exit rate for key metrics heading into FY27.
The broker understands net flows across the sector have slowed since the federal budget which could soften seasonal peak flows in the second quarter. Controllable costs should be lower in the first half compared with the second, as salaries and SAAS indexation annualises.
The broker also expects AMP could take a small impairment on the loan portfolio in the bank. With slower growth implied in the outer years and the stock trading at a 23% premium to NTA, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $1.82 from $1.94.
ARB CORPORATION LIMITED ((ARB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0
UBS is a “strong believer” in the ARB Corp brand and the incremental growth potential from expansion in the US, yet the challenging operating environment gives cause for consideration.
The VFACTS index for the company continues to deteriorate and the impact on petrol/diesel from the Middle East disruptions has a more negative impact on large SUVs/4WDs. This has also further accelerated electric vehicles versus internal combustion engines.
The broker suspects a negative wealth effect will not only result in fewer new vehicle purchases but also reduce the “add-ons”.
For investors willing to look through potential short-term weakness UBS still envisages good medium-term value but prefers to wait for a better view of what could be an earnings trough. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target lowered to $18.70 from $25.50.
CHALLENGER LIMITED ((CGF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Macquarie observes Challenger’s credit spreads have increased by around one basis point and the annuity spreads have increased relative to swap rates by around four basis points in the fourth quarter.
The broker notes the stock is trading at around 14.6x the 12 month forward PE, which is around 24% above the three-year average.
FY26 earnings estimates are raised by 3% and FY27 by 9% to reflect marking to market of the investment portfolio, an additional $6bn in institutional sales over four years as well as an increase in the buyback estimate.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform as recent strength in the share price leaves limited upside in the broker’s opinion. Target is raised to $10.30 from $9.40.
CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Macquarie maintains a preference for quality and earnings growth among A-REITs and makes valuation upgrades, driven by a -30 basis points contraction in the real bond yield. A lower real bond yield means moderating capitalisation rate expansion assumptions.
Charter Hall is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a target raised to $23.44 from $21.22 as the broker rolls forward its valuation to FY27 and incorporates earnings upgrades while lowering WACR expansion assumptions for co-investment property portfolios.
CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/1
Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.
Centuria Office REIT is downgraded to Trim from Hold and the target lowered to $0.80 from $0.90. The broker highlights that, despite trading at a -50% discount to NTA, distributions are likely to fall as disposals drag on FFO.
DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a “pullback opportunity” to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.
Deterra Royalties is downgraded to Underweight from Overweight, following lower iron ore assumptions and revised MAC forecasts.
The asset still screens as high-quality and production is expected to increase to 146mt in FY28 yet the broker considers the valuation less attractive. The target is lowered to $3.95 from $4.45. Industry View: Attractive.
Macquarie has downgraded Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds with no change in the $4.70 target price.
Macquarie notes commodity prices have weakened since mid-June, with iron ore down -4%, aluminium -13%, copper -2%, spodumene -6% and thermal coal -3%.
The broker has lowered its calendar 2026-27 price forecasts for iron ore by around -1%, metallurgical coal -6%, copper -2%, aluminium -8% and thermal coal -9%, resulting in earnings per share downgrades across the sector.
Target prices have been reduced by around -4% for iron ore and diversified miners, while Whitehaven Coal and New Hope have received larger target price cuts of around -11%. Macquarie retains Outperform ratings on Fortescue, Mineral Resources and Whitehaven Coal as its preferred picks.
While lowering its near-term outlook for coal and aluminium, the broker has left its long-term commodity price assumptions unchanged.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Macquarie notes gold has been volatile in 2026, achieving record highs of US$5400/oz before falling back to US$4100/oz as macro economic uncertainty reverberated globally.
The broker refreshes its 2026-28 price forecasts for the miners with long-term prices unchanged at around US$3100/oz.
Following negative earnings revisions for gold/copper Macquarie downgrades Evolution Mining to Neutral from Outperform and considers the stock fairly valued. Target is reduced to $12 from $13. The broker looks for an update on Northparkes as a key catalyst.
GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/1/0
Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.
Goodman Group is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds, with the stock up 19% in three months. Target is steady at $36.
JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Downgrade to Trim from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Morgans downgrades James Hardie Industries to Trim from Buy post a 25% rally in the share price over the last three months.
EPS forecasts are unchanged but the analyst highlights they sit below consensus by -3% for FY27 and -11% for FY28.
Management’s FY27 earnings (EBITDA) growth guidance of 4%–8% appears achievable, the broker states. Investor attention is likely to focus on FY28 guidance at the September investor day, with consensus currently forecasting 22% growth.
Morgans believes the US housing recovery will be deferred until FY29/FY30 with the building materials company only managing to generate high single-digit earnings growth over the medium term.
Target price falls to $36 from $39, applying a FY28 PER of 20x, which is considered fair value.
MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/3/1
Morgans updates its diversified financials earnings outlook, maintaining the FY26 EPS estimates for Magellan Financial while lowering FY27 to reflect more conservative earnings estimates for both funds management and Barrenjoey.
The broker believes the merger with Barrenjoey has reinvigorated the company’s overall business. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy as the upside to the target of $11.29 is now reduced.
ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/0
Macquarie suspects the tough conditions are likely to continue for some time for Saverglass, reflecting weak demand and adverse price/mix.
Orora has not indicated any change in guidance since its April update and the broker retains FY27 estimates for EPS that are -16% below consensus.
Saverglass continues to experience the effects of de-premiumisation and a material negative impact on profit. Macquarie now forecasts EUR57m in FY27 European earnings, down -11% on the prior corresponding period.
A Middle East peace deal and lower oil prices are not expected to manifest until the second half of FY27. A 5% buyback is factored in to the broker’s estimates and the target is lowered to $1.55 from $1.90. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
PEXA GROUP LIMITED ((PXA)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Post IPart’s draft report recommending the proposed price changes for Pexa Group with an expected lowering in revenue of around –20% to –$70m in the first year, Morgans downgrades the stock to Hold from Accumulate.
The changes will come into effect on 1 July and last for four years with the group’s current CPI-linked fee cap to continue for FY27.
Management considers IPart’s assumptions around the Initial Asset Base contribute to the decline in revenue guidance and the assumptions are viewed as “highly contestable”.
The outcome is noted by management as “unacceptable”. EPS forecasts are lowered by –3% across FY26/FY27 and FY28 drops by –40%.
Target price falls to $9.35 from $14.23.
QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Macquarie expects QBE Insurance will retain FY26 guidance at the first half result, noting the stock is trading at around 12.3x the 12-month forward PE, which is around 17.8% above the three-year average.
GWP growth guidance is expected to be retained at the “mid single-digits”. Macquarie raises FY26 EPS estimates by 4.7% and lowers FY27 by -0.7%.
Target is reduced to $23.90 from $24.60 and, given current multiples as the peak catastrophe season nears, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/4/1
Morgan Stanley observes recent weakness in the materials sector stems from profit-taking after a run of 18 months and this creates a “pullback opportunity” to rotate into commodities that have strong demand fundamentals, such as in uranium and copper.
Rio Tinto is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight amid flattening momentum in aluminium and potential merger-talk likely to be revived post August 5.
The broker envisages some near-term volume growth in Simandou, Oyu Tolgoi and lithium but medium-term growth visibility is more limited amid lower copper exposure versus peers.
Target is reduced to $149.00 from $171.50. Industry view is Attractive.
LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/1
Citi expects Lottery Corp to report a -4% decline in EBIT when it posts FY26 results on August 19. Estimates for FY27 are trimmed by -1%, amid lower lottery turnover forecasts.
The stock is also trading at the upper end of a historical two-year forward relative PE and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral with the target steady at $5.
Like-for-like sales of Powerball and Oz Lotto remain soft, the broker adds, while the main risk to its view would be a prolonged run of above-average jackpots that may also drive improved sales.
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