Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 6 to Friday July 10, 2026
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 17
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.66%; Hold 27.86%; Sell 6.48%
For the week ending Friday, July 10, 2026, FNArena recorded twelve upgrades and seventeen downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks from seven brokers monitored daily.
Deterra Royalties, whose principal asset is a royalty over BHP Group’s Mining Area C iron ore operation in Western Australia's Pilbara region, received two ratings downgrades from respectively Macquarie and Morgan Stanley.
Macquarie’s downgrade followed a broader commodities review, which noted prices had weakened since mid-June, including falls of -4% for iron ore, -13% for aluminium, -2% for copper, -6% for spodumene and -3% for thermal coal.
The broker lowered its 2026 and 2027 iron ore price forecasts by –2% and –1%, respectively, but noted only a limited impact on Deterra’s earnings estimates, maintaining a $4.70 target and downgrading its rating to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds.
Morgan Stanley lowered its target for Deterra by -50c to $3.95 and downgraded to Underweight from Overweight following lower iron ore price projections and revised Mining Area C forecasts.
This broker still considers the Mining Area C royalty as a high-quality asset, with production forecast to rise to 146mt by FY28.
The tables below reveal reductions in target prices and earnings forecasts were materially larger than increases last week.
Digital conveyancer Pexa Group suffered a -19% fall in average target price after the regulator proposed a significant reduction in the fees it charges for electronic property settlements.
Management intends to fight back as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/06/pexa-to-contest-major-revenue-hit-in-australia/.
Metallurgical coal producer Coronado Global Resources and global defence shipbuilder Austal are next with falls in average targets of -15% and -12%, respectively.
Following the Macquarie commodity review (as mentioned earlier), the Outperform rating for Coronado was retained with a target of 40 cents, down from 60 cents.
At the upcoming June quarter performance update for the company, UBS expects a marked improvement in production and realised pricing. The broker’s focus will be on whether a turnaround for the Curragh Mine, located in the Bowen Basin of central Queensland, is translating into lower costs and stronger cash generation.
For Austal, Bell Potter noted its "massive" order book can be viewed as a double-edged sword, with growing workload increasing operational complexity.
Risks were highlighted around managing multiple steel shipbuilding programs simultaneously, potential margin pressure and labour shortages as the Henderson shipbuilding facility in Western Australia expands over the next 12-18 months.
Bell Potter retained a Hold rating for Austal and cut its target to $4.10 from $6.30.
Turning to falls in average earnings forecasts, here commodity stocks accounted for eight of the ten declines in the table below, led by 29Metals and Minerals 260.
While 29Metals’ average forecast fell for FY26, the FY27 estimate climbed after a review by Morgans on the outlook for copper.
Anticipating structural demand from electrification and ongoing supply constraints, the broker raised its long-term copper price forecast by 14% to US$4.85/lb and increased its 2026-2029 forecasts by between 4%-5%.
Near-term volatility from global conflict, tariff uncertainty and interest rate risks is expected, yet weak mine supply, negative treatment charges and refined copper constraints will likely underpin prices, in Morgans’ view.
Overall, the recent pullback in copper equities on the ASX is considered an attractive buying opportunity.
Minerals 260 last week announced its maiden ore reserve and preliminary feasibility study, confirming the company’s Bullabulling project in WA as one of Australia's premier underdeveloped gold projects, according to Morgans.
A negative market reaction to the study is seen as highlighting concerns over the capital costs, rather than the project's quality.
While funding requirements remain modest, debt assumptions by UBS were increased by $100m, and equity raising assumptions by the same amount, resulting in a -25-cent fall in this broker’s target to 90 cents.
Macquarie performed its monthly mark-to-market for gold equities under research coverage, resulting in lower near-term EPS forecasts for Bellevue Gold and Genesis Minerals.
In the prior week, management at Genesis also confirmed a definitive, binding proposal to merge with Vault Minerals via a scheme of arrangement.
Coronado Global Resources and Whitehaven Coal are next after the commodity review by Macquarie.
On the flipside, the average FY26 earnings forecast for medical technology company EchoIQ rose by around 48%. Ord Minnett raised its target by 20 cents to $2.00.
EchoIQ develops artificial intelligence software to help detect heart disease earlier using echocardiograms (heart ultrasounds). The aim is to assist doctors by identifying patients at risk of serious cardiovascular conditions that may otherwise be missed.
Management has recently completed a $110m capital raising as well as a data licencing agreement with Advara Heartcare, bringing access to up to one million echos (images and measurements) and accompanying patient records and data.
The analyst at Ord Minnett sees this development as facilitating the expansion of the company's R&D pipeline into diseases which require images to be read for improved and effective diagnosis.
Financial platform operator Netwealth Group is next with an around 18% rise in average FY26 earnings forecast though the FY27 average slightly fell following a market update with updated guidance from management.
As part of an expansion into adjacent broking and private wealth markets, management also announced an agreement with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia, which has $40bn of assets under management.
For further details on this major new deal, management’s latest FY26 market update and FY27 guidance see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/10/netwealth-sacrifices-margin-for-growth/.
Zip Co, a provider of buy now, pay later services and digital consumer finance, received a near 8% boost to its consensus target price after UBS raised its target by $1.00 to $4.10.
Despite recent global uncertainty, this broker noted the US consumer has been "relatively resilient", which should support strong transaction growth for Zip going into the fourth quarter.
The average target for Growthpoint Properties Australia also received a 6% fillip after Macquarie raised its target to $2.47 from $2.02 and upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
In a REIT sector review, most of the broker’s target price revisions were upgrades driven by a lower real bond yield leading to a moderation in capitalisation rate expansion assumptions.
Despite Growthpoint trading at a deep discount to direct market transaction evidence, Macquarie sees few near-term catalysts to improve demand in the REIT's core office markets.
Macquarie’s most preferred exposures in the sector are Goodman Group, Mirvac Group, Arena REIT and DigiCo Infrastructure REIT.
Total Buy ratings remain historically elevated at 65.66%, with Sell ratings at just 6.48%, leaving 27.86% on Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/0
Boss Energy has reported increased confidence in the wider-spaced well fields at Honeymoon, which Macquarie notes, if proven, will enable a greater portion of lower-grade resource to be economic.
As the risk/reward has improved amid growing confidence in technical work, the company appears set to demonstrate the value that can be derived from its new approach.
The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.
Macquarie anticipates the company may be able to prove a new life-of-mine valuation case to investors with the feasibility study and investor presentation in August/September. Target improves to $1.75 from $1.30.
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/3/4
Morgan Stanley upgrades Beach Energy to Equal-weight from Underweight.
The analyst points out the fall in oil and share prices is offering a more attractive valuation and entry point ahead of the June quarterly updates.
Mark-to-market commodity prices result in 2026 EPS downgrades of around -1% to -28% for the energy sector versus the ASX200 Energy index which has declined by -15% over the last two months.
EPS forecasts for Beach are lowered by -23% for FY27 and -28% for FY28.
Target declines to 88c from $1.20. Industry view: In-Line.
GARDA PROPERTY GROUP ((GDF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Morgans updates interest rate assumptions, including the average cost of debt and an assumed risk-free rate of 4.6% (10-year bond rate). Adverse impacts on property stock valuations have largely been offset by an improved sector outlook as the Australian interest-rate view turns incrementally dovish.
Garda Property is upgraded to Buy from Hold as south-east Queensland industrial markets remain resilient and its private credit book is underpinning its asset base. Target is raised to $1.15 from $1.00.
GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA ((GOZ)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Macquarie maintains a preference for quality and earnings growth among A-REITs and makes valuation upgrades, driven by a -30 basis points contraction in the real bond yield. A lower real bond yield means moderating capitalisation rate expansion assumptions.
Growthpoint Properties Australia is expected to deliver FY26 FFO per share of 23.3c, the midpoint of guidance, with a distribution of 18.4c.
Macquarie notes the office portfolio is modern, A-grade and predominantly on the eastern seaboard while it is in the fringe and metro locations where there is high risk of vacancies.
At the results, the broker will be interested to find out if the momentum from significant leasing achieved in the office portfolio can be maintained with FY27 expiries.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $2.47 from $2.02.
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