In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 07-08-26

Weekly Reports | 10:28 AM

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades to an Overweight rating for Champion Iron with its target price lowered to $4.60 from $5.00 following June quarter operations affected by Direct Reduction Pellet Feed transition timing.

EBITDA reached CAD32.8m against a net loss of -CAD41.5m, while Bloom Lake production of 3.5Mwmt exceeded broker expectations despite sales of 3.1Mdmt falling -11% short due to rail shutdowns, shipment sequencing, and deliberate contract withdrawals.

Unit operating costs of CAD83.4/dmt aligned with forecasts, whereas sustaining capital expenditure reached -CAD65.7m.

Forecast FY27 EBITDA is reduced -45% to CAD234m, driven by a 10% revenue reduction on lower premium realisation and higher freight expenses.

Expecting subsequent FY28 and FY29 EBITDA cuts of -11% and -6% to be progressively offset by processing plant ramp-up, the analyst retains a positive long-term view.

CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades to a Buy rating for Capricorn Metals with a $16.50 target price following a robust June quarter performance resulting in upgraded FY26 financial forecasts.

Expected full-year metrics include revenue of $769m and underlying EBITDA of $486m, while reported net profit after tax is projected to reach $286m.

Adjusting for non-cash hedge movements establishes an underlying net profit of $325m, accurately reflecting sustainable business operations, commentary suggests.

Management issued FY27 production guidance of 137koz to 147koz, prompting the broker's estimates to remain at 150koz on expectations of the expanded Karlawinda mill outperforming rated capacity.

Recategorising specific operating expenditures to capital expenditures drove a 7% increase in FY27 EBITDA forecasts, reinforcing the analyst's view of the company as a preferred gold sector exposure.

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades its rating for Centuria Capital to Buy with its target price lowered to $2.06 from $2.15 following a share price sell-off deemed an overreaction to platform exposure risks.

Near-term platform redemptions tied to developer exposure prompt a -3%-5% reduction in operating earnings per share estimates across FY27 to FY29.

Assets under management face a forecast -10% decline during 1H27, though monthly redemptions capped at -2% should see platform balances stabilise by FY28.

Analysis of six underlying loans indicates only a single position maintains meaningful residual construction exposure, commentary highlights, mitigating potential capital loss risks.

Considering the stock drop of $0.28 per share exceeds the entire revised valuation for platform capital of -$0.18 per share, the analyst considers current pricing excessively discounted.

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis upgrades its rating for Greatland Resources to Hold from Sell with its target price reduced to $11.00 from $11.50 following the release of fourth-quarter production results.

Fourth-quarter gold output of 79.1koz at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,312/oz brought total FY26 production to 329.0koz, while June cash reserves closed at $1.29bn.

Full-year FY27 guidance targets gold production between 260koz and 300koz at an all-in sustaining cost of $2,900/oz to $3,330/oz, with combined Telfer and Havieron growth capital expenditure expected between -$680m and -$770m.

Elevated operating costs and lower grades will weigh on near-term free cash flow during an extended reinvestment phase through prospective development assets.

The analyst considers recent share price underperformance to have neutralised previous overvaluation concerns, establishing a more balanced risk-reward outlook.

KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED ((KCN)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis upgrades to a Buy rating for Kingsgate Consolidated with a 6.45 target price following fourth-quarter production results delivering 20.1koz of gold and 220koz of silver.

All-in sustaining costs reached US2,197/oz, while cash reserves excluding restricted funds closed at $85.6m prior to adjustments for land acquisitions and the Nueva Esperanza transaction.

A mill component failure reported on 13 July saw the processing plant reconfigured to operate at reduced run rates while repairs progress on schedule over an estimated four to six week timeframe.

The analyst expects near-term operational disruptions to cause only a partial impact on full-year FY27 production volumes once primary processing circuits resume full capacity.

Working capital fluctuations affected quarterly cash build, though the broker maintains confidence in underlying asset valuation support as forward guidance develops.

NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades its rating for Nick Scali to Overweight with a $16.60 target price despite expecting tough trading conditions across housing retail through FY27.

Commentary states recent share price underperformance and the likely proximity to peak interest rates create an appealing entry point for institutional investors seeking to reduce underweight exposures.

Projected FY27 earnings per share mirror outcomes from the 2019 housing cycle, while a solid balance sheet is seen providing valuable downside protection should trading deteriorate.

Noting an ANZ price-to-earnings multiple of 14x to 17x alongside anticipated monthly sales volatility, the analyst considers current valuation levels attractive for long-term positioning.

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APA GROUP ((APA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden observes delays, planned and unplanned outages and price lags have meant that most energy stocks were unable to take full advantage of the higher oil/LNG prices in the June quarter.

The broker expects a 180-degree turnaround in the next 12 months amid higher production, higher price realisations and lower capital expenditure.

For APA Group, the broker ascribes some of the recent performance in the share price to shareholder optimism about the company being a second-order derivative play on the data centre theme.

While bullish on data centres, Jarden points out, even if APA does participate, returns on any new investment will not be realised until the 2030s.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, as revenue is largely CPI-linked and shareholders are unlikely to derive any benefit in the form of higher dividends. The target is lifted 9% to $10.25.

FIREFLY METALS LIMITED ((FFM)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis downgrades FireFly Metals to Hold with its target price lowered to $1.90 from $2.30 following a transition in valuation methodology incorporating project development realities at Green Bay.

Second-quarter activities outlined ongoing underground and surface exploration success with $20m spent during the period, leaving a strong closing cash position of $184m.

Introducing a 50% weighting to a concept-level net present value for the initial 1.8mtpa processing scenario reflects upcoming study releases where capital expenditure and execution risks supersede exploration optimism.

Modelled annual production of approximately 25kt copper over a 16-year mine life underpins an initial project valuation of $700m based on long-term commodity price assumptions.

The analyst considers near-term share price upside constrained as market attention shifts from exploration potential toward project delivery metrics.

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Jarden
2	CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP	Buy	Buy	Jarden
3	CHAMPION IRON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Jarden
4	GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Moelis
5	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Moelis
6	NICK SCALI LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Jarden
Downgrade
7	APA GROUP	Neutral	Buy	Jarden
8	FIREFLY METALS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Moelis

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