CHORUS LIMITED (CNU)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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08/09/2025

3

Neutral

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UBS highlights Chorus has outperformed the NZX50 by 12% year-to-date, compared to Spark New Zealand ((SPK)), which has underperformed by -13%, and the company is screening as expensive.

For Chorus investors, the key aspect surrounds any change in its dividend policy if S&P changes its rating criteria for a BBB rating, which could happen later in 2025, according to the analyst.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating and target at NZ$9.25.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 54.13 cents and EPS of 9.02 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 56.83 cents and EPS of 16.24 cents.

17/11/2025

4

Underweight

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Jarden notes Standard and Poor's has applied its new digital infrastructure rating to Chorus, resulting in a major increase in the "down driver" for its BBB rating, signalling a potential upgrade to BBB-plus, with the outlook raised to positive.

Debt/EBITDA is calculated around 4.5x, highlighting significant headroom. Jarden does not expect any meaningful change in approach to capital management, noting the company's clear dividend policy and the "Moody's constraint", with the latter's calculations slightly different to S&P and signalling less headroom.

The broker expects low single-digit growth in the dividend to be maintained with debt capacity likely to remain underutilised. Underweight retained. Target rises to NZ$8.50 from NZ$8.37.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 54.13 cents and EPS of 13.62 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 55.03 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.