PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED (PEN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

02/07/2024

1

Buy

$0.26

147.62%

Peninsula Energy reported an update on construction activities at the Lance Uranium Project in Wyoming which is on track for a production restart in late 2024, observes Shaw and Partners.

Management highlighted construction is expected to be on budget with first production in December 2024 and increasing to 1.8Mlb by 2029.

Capital expenditure is estimated at around US$57m to first production and a further US$17.4m for full production, the broker notes with the company well capitalised post the recent $106m equity raising.

Buy rating and 26c target unchanged.

FORECAST
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

11/04/2024

1

Speculative Buy

$0.22

109.52%

The uranium market will remain in a structural deficit through 2027, forecasts Canaccord Genuity. A return to a balanced market will be highly reliant on the advancement of greenfield projects, which the broker points out remain beset with risks.

The broker upgrades its demand forecasts for uranium to incorporate new reactor builds (in China/India), extensions of existing operating lives, and restarts of idled reactors.

The analysts also highlight recent announcements by major companies like Google and Microsoft which are looking at deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) as a way to power their AI ambitions.

Canaccord Genuity forecasts an average price of US$105/lb over FY24, a 15% increase on the prior estimate, while the long-term price assumption rises to US$90/lb from US$75-$80/lb.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained for Peninsula Energy and the target rises to 22c from 18c. The next product delivery is scheduled in 2025 after production resumes at the Lance project in the US, highlights the broker.

The company has prior contractual commitments to deliver 5.25mlbs U3O8, note the analysts. Management "does not currently foresee a circumstance where it would be required to obtain yellowcake in the market to satisfy future delivery obligations."