PEXA GROUP LIMITED (PXA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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02/03/2026

1

Outperform

$19.60

30.84%

On further inspection Macquarie lifts FY26/FY27 EPS forecasts by 4.4% and 7.4% respectively on upgrades in Australia and improved UK assumptions.

Outperform retained, with the target price increased to $19.60 from $19.15.

****

Today's interim result by Pexa Group revealed EPS of 11.76c, 61% ahead of Macquarie's estimate and 123% above consensus, supported by stronger Australian volumes and margins and lower UK losses.  FY26 guidance was reiterated.

In an early assessment, the earnings (EBITDA margin) of 58% was well ahead of the analyst's expectation, despite market share of 89.9% slightly below forecasts. 

Australian revenue of $181.8m also beat the broker's forecast, with market volumes of 2.44m exceeding both Macquarie and consensus estimates.

International revenue of $33.5m was a 'miss' though earnings losses of -$19.6m were narrower than expected by Macquarie, with cash outflows tracking within guidance.

Net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.4x.

Outperform rating. Target price $19.15.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.

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19/02/2026

1

Buy

$17.40

16.15%

Jarden notes Pexa Group is exiting the majority of its Digital Solutions business, with discontinued operations expected to carry -$26m of impairments completed by mid-calendar 2026.

Group FY26 guidance has been updated by management, with revenue lowered by -$12.5m, earnings (EBITDA) margin increased by 2% and NPAT lifted by $10m, while capex guidance was reduced by -$10m.

The broker highlights the company expects an Australian cost optimisation program to deliver more than $10m of cash savings per annum, although this was already embedded in prior guidance.

Jarden retains a Buy rating and $17.40 target, and believes valuation is undemanding ahead of potential catalysts at the FY26 result, including Australian regulatory reviews, UK progress and the AML opportunity from Pexa Clear.