HMC CAPITAL LIMITED (HMC)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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27/08/2026

1

Outperform

$4.30

36.94%

HMC Capital's FY26 pre-tax EPS of 40.4c was in line with guidance and 5% above Macquarie's forecast, despite falling -28% y/y.

FY27 underlying EPS guidance of more than 35c, up 16% y/y, came in well ahead of the analyst's prior expectations, underpinned by more than 30% growth in recurring funds management revenue and around 35% growth in co-investment distributions.

Digital Infrastructure and Private Credit are expected to be the key earnings accelerators, with $18.6bn in AUM and more than $5bn of opportunities across the group.

FY27-FY29 EPS forecasts are upgraded by 50%, 33% and 29%, respectively, driven by higher funds management EBITDA, lower corporate costs and the removal of tax expense due to carried-forward losses.

The target price rises to $4.30 from $3.77. Outperform rating retained.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 35.90 cents.

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30/08/2026

3

Neutral

$3.45

9.87%

Jarden retains a Neutral rating for HMC Capital with its target price increased to $3.45 from $3.06 following the announcement of a pre-tax operating EPS of 40.4c.

This result was supported by 10.2c of unrealised gains across the Energy and Private Equity platforms.

Management guided to FY27 earnings of over 35c, adopting a new "Underlying EPS" definition that excludes revaluations to reflect a strategic shift towards cash earnings.

The analyst incorporates this new definition, resulting in a 5% uplift to FY27 forecasts, and models an EPS compound annual growth rate of 6.7% through FY30.

Commentary notes the company's pivot away from chasing aspirational assets under management in favour of higher-quality earnings should lead to a more supportive cost of capital.