AMPOL LIMITED (ALD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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ALD - AMPOL LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Consumer Products & Services
Year End: December
GICS Industry Group : Energy
Debt/EBITDA: 2.95
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Ampol (previously branded as Caltex Australia) is an Australian petroleum company first incorporated in 1936 in New South Wales. The company first listed on the ASX in 1948.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$28.32

28 Jan
2025

-1.160

OPEN

$29.07

-3.93%

HIGH

$29.23

1,196,080

LOW

$28.24

TARGET
$32.188 13.7% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
PFP . WES .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ALD: 1
Title FY22
Actual		 FY23
Actual		 FY24
Forecast		 FY25
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 230.4 112.3 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 275.0 72.5 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 27.5% - 51.2% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 0.0% - 73.6% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 25.4 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 2.5% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 119.3% 64.5% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 9.50%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 9.64

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 30/08 - ex-div 60c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201820192020202120222023
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx230.4
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx275.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx37,454.5 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,493.5
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,504.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.47 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201820192020202120222023
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.27 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.02 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.13 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.27 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.36 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx381.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201820192020202120222023
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx296 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,399 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,695 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx688 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx301 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.42

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201820192020202120222023
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx539.3 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.44 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx35,014 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,647 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx311 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.3

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Morgan Stanley

24/01/2025

3

Equal-weight

$32.00

12.99%

Ampol's fourth quarter replacement cost operating profit (RCOP) missed Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts by -6%, with the broker anticipating a modestly negative sharemarket reaction.

The Lytton refinery margin of US$4.60/bbl fell below the consensus expectation of US$5.63/bbl, while 2H Convenience and New Zealand trading was consistent with the prior corresponding period, according to the analysts.

Target $32. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 83.00 cents and EPS of 133.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

28/01/2025

1

Upgrade to Buy from Neutral

$32.00

12.99%

Goldman Sachs notes Ampol reported a weaker-than-expected 4Q24 result with $45m Lytton gross profit -$5m below its estimate.

The broker notes the international trading segment continued to struggle over Q4 impacted by low market volatility but assumes gradual recovery over 2025. Unaudited 2024 EBITDA of $1.2bn was 4% below Goldman's $1.25 estimate.

Ahead of FY24 result on Feb 24, the broker estimates $1.2bn underlying EBITDA, $237m net profit, and $4.1bn net debt.

The broker revised FY24/25 EBITDA by -2/-2% primarily adjusting for lower international earnings and higher Lytton operating expense.

Target price reduces to $32.0 from $32.3. Rating upgraded to Buy on attractive valuation and defensive refining exposure, plus an anticipated 2025 earnings recovery.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 119.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ALD STOCK CHART

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