MADER GROUP LIMITED (MAD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

28/10/2025

3

Downgrade to Hold from Buy

$9.00

-5.26%

Bell Potter had a look at cyclical drivers for Mader Group, concluding the key operating markets remain in growth mode, despite recent softening in North America..

In Australia, the broker notes the iron ore majors reported a strong September quarter, supporting the company's equipment services demand.

North American activity softened since the June quarter, with carload growth slowing for coal (3.8% y/y vs 15% at FY25), quarry materials (2.7% vs 5.9%), and metallic ores (-11% vs -8.5%), the broker observed.

The broker will look ahead to OEM and dealer commentary over the coming weeks to gauge sentiment among resource companies and investment levels.

The broker re-iterated the FY26 guidance of over $1bn revenue and net profit of over $65m looks conservative based on positive momentum at FY25-exit. 

Target unchanged at $9. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy following recent share price gains.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.

03/09/2025

3

Downgrade to Hold from Buy

$8.29

-12.74%

Mader Group's FY25 results were in line with guidance and forecasts by Moelis, with revenue of $870m and profit of $57m.

Australia grew 17% on strong contributions from infrastructure, rail, and road, highlights the broker, while North America improved in the second half with 8% revenue growth and stable margins.

The group profit margin expanded to 6.6%, and a fully franked 4c dividend was declared.

Net debt fell to $8m from $23.2m in December, with the business on track for a net cash position within twelve months, suggests the analyst. Cash conversion of 101% supported $42.7m in operating cash flow, with cash of $24m at June end.

FY26 guidance targets at least $1bn in revenue and $65m profit, consistent with the five-year strategic plan, observes Moelis.

Moelis raises its target price to $8.29 from $6.83 reflecting stronger domestic momentum and higher utilisation of a growing workforce. and downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.