Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 23-01-26

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This story features AMCOR PLC, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMC
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday January 19 to Friday January 23, 2026
Total Upgrades: 20
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 63.31%; Hold 29.08%; Sell 7.61%

For the week ending Friday, January 23, 2026, FNArena tracked twenty upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Buy ratings, already at historically elevated levels, climbed further to 63.31% of total ratings, with 18 of the week’s 20 upgrades shifting to Buy; Neutral/Hold and Sell stood at 29.08% and 7.61%, respectively.

While these ratings upgrades marginally favoured Industrials, increases in average target prices were confined to the Mining sector as a range of brokers raised commodity price forecasts and lifted forecasts heading into the February reporting season.

Nine of the ten increases in average earnings forecasts in the table below also pertain to mining stocks, led by IGO Ltd along with fellow lithium producers Liontown and PLS Group.

Last week, Citi raised its FY26 and FY27 spodumene (SC6) price forecasts by 62% and 13%, respectively, to US$1,680/t and US$1,330/t, after highlighting a price rise of 165% since mid-October to the current spot price of US$2,200/t.

PLS Group is viewed as most likely to capture the upside from higher pricing as the group can restart the Ngungaju joint venture at the Pilgangoora lithium project in four months at a low capital cost.

In contrast, the broker noted Liontown’s plan to ramp Kathleen Valley to 4mtpa of spodumene production is expected to take between 12-18 months.

IGO Ltd continues to focus on the successful ramp-up of CGP-3 before construction commences on CGP-4. Upside risk is seen for the share price if the miner can resolve the TLEA JV structure.

TLEA is the joint venture between IGO Ltd (49%) and China’s Tianqi Lithium (51%) which owns and operates the Greenbushes lithium mine in Western Australia and the Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery.

Three brokers weighed in with higher targets for Coronado Global Resources last week given the 17% rise in premium low-volume hard coking coal prices to around US$235/t since the start of December, as noted by UBS.

Metallurgical coal prices have risen due to supply challenges from Queensland and more stable demand, explained the analysts.

This broker upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell after setting a target of 44c, up from 25c.  Hold-rated Ord Minnett and Bell Potter also raised their respective targets to 48c and 47c from 38c and 33c.

On the back of higher coal pricing, Whitehaven Coal appears second on the earnings upgrade table below.

Positive December quarter trading updates for gold miners Evolution Mining and Bellevue Gold resulted in higher average target prices.

Regarding Evolution Mining, Morgans noted a strong operational performance amid higher gold and copper prices, boosting cash flow and balance sheet strength.

Management also lowered cost (AISC) guidance by -6% due to by-product credits and cost management.

Bell Potter highlighted the benefits from copper, which differentiate the company from most peers, supporting expectations of ongoing relative outperformance as the market catches on.

Bellevue Gold’s pre-released December quarter production report came in slightly below expectations. UBS points to stockpile growth and delays to obtaining higher grades.

Costs (AISC) of $2,989/oz were better than anticipated by the broker, which boosted cash on hand, while gold on hand increased to $165m, up $9m on the prior quarter.

Management retained FY26 guidance for production, costs, and capex growth.

The broker flagged a pickup in exploration in 2H26 and FY27, with more drilling and exploration updates likely.

The average earnings forecast for Telix Pharmaceuticals rose by around 16% last week following a trading update for the fourth quarter of 2025.

As noted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/01/22/focus-on-telix-guidance-post-annus-horribilis/ management attained the lower end of upgraded expectations, which was insufficient to boost investor sentiment, though signs are emerging of improving metrics around prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) pricing and volumes.

On the negative side of the ledger, wellbeing and online safety company Qoria heads up the tables for negative change to average target and earnings forecasts following a disappointing December quarter update.

Exit annual recurring revenue came in -4% below Bell Potter’s forecast, mainly due to a larger-than-expected forex headwind. Cash receipts and operating cash flow also missed expectations on lower receipts and higher marketing spend.

While management reiterated FY26 guidance, the broker highlighted current spot rates imply ongoing forex pressure unless the Australian dollar weakens.

Despite the disappointing update, Ord Minnett felt Qoria is well placed for the second half of FY26 based on a robust pipeline. Undervaluation relative to peers was also noted.

ARB Corp, which designs, manufactures, and distributes four-wheel-drive accessories for off-road and recreational vehicles, appears second on the negative change to target price list.

First half FY26 underlying profit before tax missed the consensus forecast by -14% due to weaker sales and margin pressure, explained Morgans, with a sharp second quarter deterioration across all divisions.

Aftermarket softness reflects weaker new vehicle sales, noted the broker, while slowing export growth is a concern ahead of tougher second half comparisons.

Export sales grew 8.8% year-on-year, below Macquarie’s expectation, though the key US market remained strong, rising by 26%.

Particularly in relation to the negative surprise from exports, the analyst at Morgan Stanley is seeking more details at the first half results on February 24.

The average earnings forecast for Lynas Rare Earths fell by -14% on a production miss due to power outages in Kalgoorlie and planned maintenance in Kuantan, Bell Potter explained.

More positively, brokers generally raised their targets thanks to higher-value NdPr inventory sales which lifted average rare earth oxide prices.

Outperform-rated Macquarie highlighted management is strategically seeking secure sales contracts with customers outside of Japan and China who are prepared to pay higher prices outside of the Asian metals index.

Upgrade

AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Following a review of the packaging sector ahead of the February reporting season, Ord Minnett upgraded Amcor to Buy from Hold on valuation and improving earnings outlook.

The broker highlights consensus for earnings forecasts are currently sitting at the low end of guidance. 

While EPS estimates are unchanged post 5-for-1 share consolidation, potential capital returns and brighter-than-expected earnings support a higher valuation, the broker explains.

Target lifted to $73.50 from $70.50, after also accounting for a higher risk-free rate of 4.5% from 4.0% into the models.

BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Morgan Stanley’s forecasts for Boss Energy’s Honeymoon production and sales in the December quarter are slightly above consensus as contracting activity lifts on stronger uranium pricing. The broker expects 410Klbs vs the company’s 357klbs production flagged on December 10.

The forecast for Honeymoon costs is -2% below consensus but up q/q due to higher reagent use as new columns ramp up.

Key watch points include updates on the revised wide-spaced wellfield design and progress at Gould’s Dam and Jason’s deposits.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight. Target $2.05. Industry View: Attractive.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

Simplification, strategy execution, profit focus and balance sheet de-risking have improved Bank of Queensland’s valuation outlook, the broker highlights. More efficient capital use is expected to lift returns over time.

Double upgrade to Buy from Sell. Target rises to $7.50 from $6.75, though no change to forecasts.

CHALICE MINING LIMITED ((CHN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/0/1

UBS upgrades Chalice Mining to Buy from Neutral with a higher target of $2.75 from $1.75.

The analyst points to the scaled back, simplified plan at Gonneville, which was announced late 2025 and was likely lower than market expectations. In contrast, the broker sees possible upside in Chalice’s “bottom of cycle” plan, both in scale and through operational enhancements.

Current forecasts align with pre-feasibility study outcomes, but UBS believes there is potential for metallurgical improvements as well as a “bullish” outlook for commodity prices.

With years still to production, the stock’s valuation remains geared to the assumed long-term palladium price of US$1,400/oz.

COG FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED ((COG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Morgans updated forecasts for financial sector companies following recent company updates by some, mark-to-market adjustments, and a broader review of assumptions.

Key picks in order of preference are Generation Developments, MA Financial, Navigator Global Investments and COG Financial Services.

The broker trimmed COG Financial Services’ FY26-27 EPS forecasts by -3% each, reflecting slightly softer growth assumptions in Finance Broking and Aggregation.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target reduced to $2.57 from $2.63.

CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/1

Coronado Global Resources is upgraded to Neutral from Sell by UBS with a higher target of 44c from 25c following the improvement in met coal prices due to supply challenges from Qld and more stable demand.

The analyst points to a rise in premium low-vol hard coking coal prices by 17% to around US$235/t since the start of December, the highest in a year, noting Coronado has good operating leverage to met coal prices.

Supply has been impacted by wet weather in Qld and an operational issue in Canada, alongside strong Indian buying.

Noting the tragic fatality at Mammoth underground from a roof fall, the broker assumes a six-week outage and additional remediation costs of around -US$50m.

Due to the producer’s high debt and funding structure, there is “elevated” financial leverage to higher prices.

CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Morgans upgrades Cleanaway Waste Management to Buy from Accumulate with an unchanged target of $3.11 due to the recent share price weakness.

The company reaffirmed FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance of $470-$500m at its October AGM. The analyst now assumes 55% of underlying earnings (EBIT) moves to 2H26, with 1Q26 experiencing softer trading conditions, versus 49% previously.

This compares to 53% in FY25 and 52% in FY24, inferring 1H26/2H26 EBIT of around $220m/$267m against consensus at $226m/$259m.

Management has started a strategic program to lower indirect costs and improve cash generation, with more details expected at the February results.

DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Morgan Stanley favours Deterra Royalties’ exposure to high-grade iron ore, driven mainly by the MAC asset, with its royalty model making its yields less sensitive to iron ore price movements.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target price $4.75. Industry View: Attractive.

GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED ((GDG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Morgans updated forecasts for financial sector companies following recent company updates by some, mark-to-market adjustments, and a broader review of assumptions.

Key picks in order of preference are Generation Developments, MA Financial, Navigator Global Investments and COG Financial Services.

The broker made minor revisions to forecasts for Generation Development.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target reduced to $7.95 from $8.01.

HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED ((HVN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie notes consumer conditions remained pressured in late 2025 and continue into 2026 as inflation and potential RBA rate hikes weigh on discretionary spend and keep consumers cautious.

However, easing inflation, strong income growth, stable employment and healthier balance sheets are expected to support a more constructive consumer backdrop as 2026 progresses.

In the case of Harvey Norman, the broker notes furniture sales remain strong, driven by higher-income cohorts, supporting operating leverage and 21% EBIT growth in the Australian franchise business in 1H26. 

EPS forecast for FY26 increased by 1% and by 2% for FY27. No change to the $7.60 target.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on leverage to improving mid-to-high tier furniture spend.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/0/3

Morgan Stanley expects Lynas Rare Earths’ December quarter NdPr production to be well below consensus due to Kalgoorlie power outages. Some offset is seen from higher REO sales from inventory and stronger pricing on HRE and NdPr.

The broker expects pricing to outperform consensus on improved HRE mix and recent NdPr strength.

Key watch points include new sales agreements, project progress (Seadrift, Malaysia HRE plant), and resolution of Kalgoorlie power issues.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Target $17.55. Industry View: Attractive.

MADER GROUP LIMITED ((MAD)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Bell Potter upgrades Mader Group to Buy from Hold, following recent fall in the share price. Target unchanged at $9.

The analyst believes consensus net profit after tax earnings estimates for FY26 at $67.6m are conservative and forecasts $69.6m versus guidance at $65m.

Multiple indications infer there is a positive backdrop in North America for picking up new business, with the US mining complex improving notably since the 2024 Presidential election.

The group’s key markets have experienced good growth over July-November 2025, with coal production up 4.4% y/y, copper up 15.9%, lime up 10.8%, and oil sands up 3%.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0

UBS upgrades Macquarie Group to a Buy rating from Neutral with a higher target of $235 from $225. The broker views Macquarie Asset Management’s (MAM) exit from public markets in the US and Europe positively, alongside the transition to private markets (infrastructure).

Private markets are now the largest portion of AUM, and a 10.1% CAGR is forecast for fees from FY25-FY30, in excess of consensus at 8.4% CAGR.

The analyst raises FY26 EPS by 10.1% and trims FY27 by -0.9%, with the FY26 expected to benefit from gains on divestment of the US/Euro public markets business. Ex public markets, UBS’ EPS forecasts are -7% below consensus in FY27-FY28.

On private market fees, UBS’s forecast is higher due to the robust deal backdrop, while Commodities and Global Markets revenue continues to be concerning post the FY23 peak.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/2/3

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

National Australia Bank has successfully defended its business banking position and is well placed to benefit from structural lending growth, UBS highlights. 

With the stock underperforming in 2025, the broker sees a cleaner re-rating opportunity for the bank than peers. FY26-27 EPS and dividend forecasts are increased.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $47.00 from $42.50.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Netwealth Group’s December quarter net inflows of $4.06bn were ahead of Macquarie’s $3.8bn forecast but fell short of consensus. Platform FUA (funds under administration) of $124.4bn and account growth were broadly in line with expectations.

Average cash balances beat the broker’s estimate, providing a modest earnings tailwind for 1H26, the broker highlights.

The company guided to a lower FY26 EBITDA margin of 49%, below the broker’s 50% estimate, and higher software investment. FUA net flows were also guided to be broadly in line with FY25, with the broker’s revised forecast now at $15.4bn, in line with FY25.

FY26 EPS forecast downgraded by -3.7% on lower EBITDA margins, but FY28 upgraded slightly on higher net flows forecast.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target trimmed to $32.40 from $33.05 to valuation amendment.

PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((PMV)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Macquarie upgrades Premier Investments to Outperform from Neutral and views circa 71% of the company’s equity value is now “low-risk.” The balance is made up by retail, Peter Alexander and Smiggle, which are trading at historically “cheap” levels.

The broker’s high-frequency consumer data, foot traffic and Google indicators reflect positive indications for Peter Alexander’s Australia sales. Around $8.35-$9.89 of value per share could be added if Peter Alexander traded in line with ASX-listed apparel retailers, in the broker’s opinion.

Re Smiggle, the weakness in trading and management churn is now priced in, and the Breville Group ((BRG)) stake now sits at 56% of Premier’s market capitalisation, historically high.

Target price retained at $16.20.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/1/0

UBS upgrades South32 to Buy from Neutral with a higher target of $4.90 from $4, with higher EPS forecasts by 35% for FY26 and 8% for FY27 post the 2Q26 update, as the stock offers an attractive risk or reward.

The quarterly result was viewed as “solid”, with most assets meeting or exceeding expectations and management retaining FY26 guidance.

The analyst believes South32’s reputation as a reliable operator continues to evolve, which justifies a re-rating of the stock, as well as an attractive commodity mix, with UBS positive on aluminium and copper, albeit with risks to a near-term pullback or consolidation.

Silver is also trading well above forecasts, which gives upside potential to earnings at Cannington and Hermosa.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Macquarie notes consumer conditions remained pressured in late 2025 and continue into 2026 as inflation and potential RBA rate hikes weigh on discretionary spend and keep consumers cautious.

However, easing inflation, strong income growth, stable employment and healthier balance sheets are expected to support a more constructive consumer backdrop as 2026 progresses.

In the case of Sigma Healthcare, the broker notes health and beauty demand remains strong, supporting Chemist Warehouse sales. The broker expects the company to deliver 14% y/y comp sales growth in 1H26 and strong operating leverage.

EPS forecast for FY26 increased by 1% and by 3% for FY27. Target rises to $3.00 from $2.90, and rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0

On Ord Minnett’s observation, Santos’ December-quarter revenue came in above market expectations, the ‘beat’ driven by increased third-party sales and stronger prices for LNG from Papua New Guinea.

Output was a touch below consensus. 2025 EPS estimate lifts by 5.9%. 2026 and 2027 forecasts are reduced by -1.7% and -0.9%, respectively.

The broker’s target loses -20c to $7.60. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on less risk to the investment thesis.

WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Macquarie notes consumer conditions remained pressured in late 2025 and continue into 2026 as inflation and potential RBA rate hikes weigh on discretionary spend and keep consumers cautious.

However, easing inflation, strong income growth, stable employment and healthier balance sheets are expected to support a more constructive consumer backdrop as 2026 progresses.

In the case of Wesfarmers, the broker tempered the margin outlook for Kmart, but this is expected to be offset by stronger growth from Bunnings and Health in the later years. EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -2% but FY27 raised by 1%.

Target rises to $91 from $86. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Downgrade

4DMEDICAL LIMITED ((4DX)) Downgrade to Sell from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Ord Minnett notes 4DMedical has started 2026 strongly with CT:VQ (Computed Tomography:Ventilation Quantification) deployment at UC San Diego and a $150m raise. This has driven continued share price momentum and a stretched FY27 estimated EV/sales multiple of 111x, well above peers.

In the broker’s view, the valuation now appears disconnected from the near-term revenue outlook, with uncertainty around paid CT:VQ volumes and market size.

Target rises to $3.20 from $1.90 on outer-year free cash flow upgrades and a cut in WACC to 10.3% from 11.7%. Rating downgraded to Sell from Accumulate due to recent stellar share price gains.

ALS LIMITED ((ALQ)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

For ALS Ltd, Ord Minnett lifts EPS forecasts by 0.7% for FY26 and 3.1% for FY27. Target price is raised to $24.10 from $22.60 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/3

Macquarie notes consumer conditions remained pressured in late 2025 and continue into 2026 as inflation and potential RBA rate hikes weigh on discretionary spend and keep consumers cautious.

However, easing inflation, strong income growth, stable employment and healthier balance sheets are expected to support a more constructive consumer backdrop as 2026 progresses.

The broker notes Domino’s Pizza Enterprises is trialling an EDLP pricing model in WA to reduce coupon-led promotions. But sees soft comps and ongoing cost inflation keeping network profitability under pressure and limiting franchisee expansion in the near term.

EPS forecast for FY26 increased by 7% and by 3% for FY27. Target lifted $19.40 from $15.30 on earnings revisions and an adjustment to beta. 

Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral as improvements in franchisee profitability are expected to be gradual and the associated costs are reflected in expectations.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Morgan Stanley reckons Fortescue’s Hematite price realisation outperformed consensus in the December quarter as low-grade discounts narrowed, though C1 costs are seen slightly higher due to elevated strip ratios.

The broker’s forecasts for Pilbara hematite production and shipments are in line with expectations, while Iron Bridge production is expected to slightly lag, but shipments beat on assumed destocking.

Iron Bridge realised prices likely remained strong at 99% of the benchmark, in the broker’s view.

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Overweight. $19.75 target. Industry view: Attractive.

GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie notes GQG Partners has shifted from a long inflow streak to net outflows in the Sep and Dec 2025 quarters as fund performance lags benchmarks.

Net flows are highly correlated with five-year relative performance, with the broker’s models pointing to improved but still negative outflows in FY26 before worsening again in FY27.

With fund performance likely to remain below benchmarks, the broker assumes more conservative outflows, cutting FY27 EPS forecast by -8%, though FY25-26 saw small increases on base management fee lifts.

Target cut to $1.65 from $2.20 on valuation changes. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/1

Macquarie notes consumer conditions remained pressured in late 2025 and continue into 2026 as inflation and potential RBA rate hikes weigh on discretionary spend and keep consumers cautious.

However, easing inflation, strong income growth, stable employment and healthier balance sheets are expected to support a more constructive consumer backdrop as 2026 progresses.

Ahead of Inghams Group’s 1H26 result, the broker flags downside risk to FY26 EBITDA guidance, given an unusually heavy 2H skew. There’s also added pricing pressure from a competitor’s new facility coming online in April 2026.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -4% and by -3% for FY27. Target cut to $2.20 from $2.30.

Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral 

NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((NGI)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Morgans updated forecasts for financial sector companies following recent company updates by some, mark-to-market adjustments, and a broader review of assumptions.

Key picks in order of preference are Generation Developments, MA Financial, Navigator Global Investments and COG Financial Services.

The broker lifted Navigator Global Investments’ FY26 EPS forecast by 1% and FY27 by 2%, driven by slightly higher-than-expected AUM levels at the end of 1H26.

Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy. Target rises to $3.71 from $3.45.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0

UBS downgrades Northern Star Resources to Neutral from Buy with a lower target of $26.90 from $29.45. This follows the update on cost guidance, which comes after the pre-reported December quarter sales miss and downgrade in FY26 production guidance.

The analyst makes further downgrades to incorporate the rise in AISC (all-in-sustaining-costs), with production forecast around 1,530koz at the low end of guidance and costs of $2,850/oz at the higher end of guidance.

Another delay in Hemi is expected and capex to rise to around $2.8bn. UBS lowers EPS forecasts by -12% for FY26 and -11% for FY27.

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/4/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Rio Tinto to Hold from Accumulate with an unchanged target of $150 due to valuation.

The December quarterly revealed robust production, with output across iron ore, copper, bauxite, alumina and aluminium all beating expectations, with mixed achieved pricing.

Copper benefited from higher throughput at Kennecott and the ramp up of Oyu Tolgoi. Post the update, the broker lowers the 2025 EPS forecast by -2.6% and lifts 2026 by 3.9%.

The mining heavyweight retained 2026 production, and cost guidance is due at the 2025 results on February 19.

RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED ((RWC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Citi downgrades Reliance Worldwide to Neutral from Buy with a $4.25 target price. The broker expects the company to be challenged over the next year by the copper price spike, citing history as a good guide to the impacts on its P&L.

The industry prefers customers in the US, and as such the size and speed of the possible price rises are judged to be potential headwinds for Reliance.

SRG GLOBAL LIMITED ((SRG)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

SRG Global’s first half FY26 operating earnings (EBITDA) are expected to grow 23%, with organic growth of 7% and contributions from the Diona and TAMS acquisitions. Scope for an earnings upside surprise is seen due to the robust contracting activity in 1H26.

The broker downgrades the rating to Accumulate from Buy with a higher target of $3.20 from $3.15.

VAULT MINERALS LIMITED ((VAU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Vault Minerals’ 2Q26 production missed Macquarie’s forecast by -10%  due to lower gold grades across all assets, with KoTH the largest detractor at -14% production miss.

The company maintained the FY26 production guidance, and the broker notes it is on track so far. Year-to-date costs are, however, trending 4% higher than the guidance midpoint.

After a weak 2Q, the broker now expects FY26 production toward the lower end at KoTH. A reduced medium-term grade outlook led to a lowering in group production forecasts by -4% for FY27-28, while remaining within guidance.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts trimmed by -14%. Target cut to $6.50 from $7.00, and rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

VENTIA SERVICES GROUP LIMITED ((VNT)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

Ventia Services is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate with a higher target of $5.85 from $5.25. The company is expected to report FY2025 net profit at the upper end of guidance growth of 10-12% after announcing $4.2bn in contracts over 2H2025.

The stock is downgraded due to valuation.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/3/1

For the December quarter, Morgan Stanley’s forecast for Whitehaven Coal’s group run-of-mine coal production is 6% above consensus. Production is expected to rebound after the September quarter weather impacts, led by Narrabri and Blackwater.

Saleable production and equity sales are also expected to beat consensus on stronger Narrabri output. The forecasts for achieved pricing for both met and thermal coal are broadly in line with expectations.

Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target $8.75. Industry View: Attractive.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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