MADER GROUP LIMITED (MAD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

21/08/2024

1

Buy

$6.80

28.79%

At a glance, Mader Group's FY24 result missed Bell Potter's forecasts on most metrics due to a sharply lower contribution from North America. Australian operations outpaced.

Despite the miss, the result was broadly strong the company posting strong increases in most metrics.

Management declared a 4cps fully franked final dividend, taking the full-year payment to 7.8cps.

FY25 and net profit after tax guidance also fell short of the broker's forecasts and management reiterated its intention to reach a net cash position while maintaining growth and a dividend payout ratio of 33% (FY24 was 31%). The broker considers guidance to be conservative.

The company closed the year with net debt of $39.6m ($52.4m in FY23) and free cash flow jumped to $28.1m from -$6.2m in FY23, which Bell Potter sheets back to strong earnings and less capital expenditure.

EPS forecasts fall -16% in FY25; -14% in FY26; and -12% in FY27.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $6.80 from $7.60.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.70 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents.

21/08/2024

1

Buy

$6.52

23.48%

Mader Group achieved guidance in its FY24 results with Moelis observing the Australian segment grew strongly and North America, while still growing, moderated.

Net profit of $50.4m was broadly in line with expectations. The broker updates estimates to imply 16% compound growth in EPS for FY24-26.

Catalysts should come from continued expansion in North America and an increased contribution from ancillary services. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.52 from $7.41.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 27.10 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 31.50 cents.