SOUTH32 LIMITED (S32)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Mining

Year End: June

GICS Industry Group : Materials

Debt/EBITDA: 1.32

Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

South32 is a mining and metals company producing alumina, aluminium, energy and metallurgical coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead and zinc in Australia, Southern Africa and South America. It was spun out of BHP Billiton in 2015.

LAST PRICE	CHANGE +/-	CHANGE %	VOLUME
$2.61 15 Sep 2025	0.020 OPEN $2.59	0.77% HIGH $2.63	14,783,067 LOW $2.56

LAST PRICE

CHANGE +/-

CHANGE %

VOLUME

$2.61

15 Sep
2025

0.020

OPEN

$2.59

0.77%

HIGH

$2.63

14,783,067

LOW

$2.56

TARGET

$3.208

22.9% upside

Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%

OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
5EA . AMN . APC . ARV . AZY . BCI . BML . CNB . COD . CXM . DRE . E25 . EM2 . HFR . KSN . LM8 . PEX . PMT . QML . RTR . S2R . STK . SVY .

FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS

12 Month Avg FX Values

Present FX Values

Original Currency

Title	FY26 Forecast	FY27 Forecast
EPS (cps)	18.7	xxx
DPS (cps)	7.4	xxx
EPS Growth	N/A	xxx
DPS Growth	N/A	xxx
PE Ratio	14.0	xxx
Dividend Yield	2.8%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	39.8%	xxx

Title	FY26 Forecast	FY27 Forecast
EPS (cps)	18.1	xxx
DPS (cps)	7.2	xxx
EPS Growth	N/A	xxx
DPS Growth	N/A	xxx
PE Ratio	14.5	xxx
Dividend Yield	2.7%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	39.8%	xxx

Title	FY24 Actual	FY25 Actual	FY26 Forecast	FY27 Forecast
EPS (cps)	xxx	N/A	12.1	xxx
DPS (cps)	xxx	N/A	4.8	xxx
EPS Growth	xxx	N/A	N/A	xxx
DPS Growth	xxx	N/A	N/A	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	xxx	N/A	39.8%	xxx

This company reports in USD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: N/A

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 19/09 - ex-div 4.57c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD

Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
EPS Basic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	8.9
DPS All	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	9.3
Sales/Revenue	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	8,924.8 M
Book Value Per Share	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	300.3
Net Operating Cash Flow	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2,061.4 M
Net Profit Margin	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	5.50 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Return on Capital Employed	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	3.65 %
Return on Invested Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	3.17 %
Return on Assets	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2.32 %
Return on Equity	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	3.65 %
Return on Total Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	7.20 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	67.9 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Short-Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	407 M
Long Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2,086 M
Total Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2,493 M
Goodwill - Gross	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	212 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2,559 M
Price To Book Value	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	0.97

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Capex	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1,548.7 M
Capex % of Sales	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	17.35 %
Cost of Goods Sold	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	7,382 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	398 M
Research & Development	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-
Investments - Total	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	3,749 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
EXTRA COVERAGE

EXPERT VIEWS

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Sentiment Indicator

0.5

No. Of Recommendations

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
UBS	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Morgan Stanley	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxxxxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Macquarie	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Citi	29/08/2025	3	Neutral	$3.00	14.94%	Following a deeper review of South32's FY25 result, Citi lowered FY26 EBITDA forecast by -30% and FY27 by -20%, with underlying net profit forecasts downgraded even further. The downgrade was mainly due to lower Cannington volumes and higher costs. Target trimmed to $3.00 from $3.20. Neutral maintained. In a flash note, Citi noted: Initial appraisal is South32's FY25 result is broadly in-line but higher FY26 costs are a "modest negative". Management provided first time FY27 production guidance and the broker notes FY26 production guidance is unchanged except for Mozal Aluminium and Cannington. Looking to FY27, South32 expects 4% production growth at Worsley Alumina as the refinery returns towards nameplate capacity with improved access to bauxite and 5% growth at Sierra Gorda due to higher planned copper grades. FORECAST Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.88 cents and EPS of 7.75 cents. Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 14.11 cents and EPS of 28.07 cents.
Morgans	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Ord Minnett	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial

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EXTRA COVERAGE

Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Canaccord Genuity	20/08/2025	3	Hold	$2.60	-0.38%	Management at South32 has updated production guidance for Mozal, with Canaccord Genuity noting the asset is now expected to be placed on care and maintenance once its power contract expires in March 2026. The broker assumes shutdown costs of around -US$40m, based on precedent from similar smelter closures. Without Mozal, the analysts note aluminium output would fall to 887kt in FY27 from 1,211kt in FY25, leaving Hillside as the only profitable smelter, while Brazil Aluminium continues to operate at a loss. Although a deal on power supply remains possible, Canaccord considers idling the more likely outcome. Modellng adjustments see the broker cut its FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -2% and FY27 by -4%, with limited impact given prior assumptions of higher power costs. For FY25 results due August 28, the analysts expect underlying earnings of US$608m versus consensus US$654m. Canaccord maintains its Hold rating and $2.60 target. FORECAST Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.58 cents and EPS of 12.41 cents.

BROKER

DATE

RATING

RECOMMENDATION

TARGET PRICE

% TO REACH TARGET

COMMENTARY

Canaccord Genuity

20/08/2025

Hold

$2.60

-0.38%

Management at South32 has updated production guidance for Mozal, with Canaccord Genuity noting the asset is now expected to be placed on care and maintenance once its power contract expires in March 2026.

The broker assumes shutdown costs of around -US$40m, based on precedent from similar smelter closures.

Without Mozal, the analysts note aluminium output would fall to 887kt in FY27 from 1,211kt in FY25, leaving Hillside as the only profitable smelter, while Brazil Aluminium continues to operate at a loss.

Although a deal on power supply remains possible, Canaccord considers idling the more likely outcome.

Modellng adjustments see the broker cut its FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -2% and FY27 by -4%, with limited impact given prior assumptions of higher power costs.

For FY25 results due August 28, the analysts expect underlying earnings of US$608m versus consensus US$654m.

Canaccord maintains its Hold rating and $2.60 target.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.58 cents and EPS of 12.41 cents.

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S32 STOCK CHART

FNArena News on S32

1	Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 05-09-25 Sep 08 2025 - Weekly Reports

2	FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 29-08-2025 Aug 29 2025 - Australia

3	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Aug 20, 2025 Aug 20 2025 - Daily Market Reports

4	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Aug 18, 2025 Aug 18 2025 - Daily Market Reports

5	Next Week At A Glance – 18-22 Aug 2025 Aug 15 2025 - Weekly Reports

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SOUTH32 LIMITED (S32)
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