SOUTH32 LIMITED (S32)
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S32

S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Mining
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 1.32
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

South32 is a mining and metals company producing alumina, aluminium, energy and metallurgical coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead and zinc in Australia, Southern Africa and South America. It was spun out of BHP Billiton in 2015.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$2.54

11 Sep
2025

-0.010

OPEN

$2.54

-0.39%

HIGH

$2.57

20,719,909

LOW

$2.52

TARGET
$3.208 26.3% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
5EA . AMN . APC . ARV . AZY . BCI . BML . CNB . COD . CXM . DRE . E25 . EM2 . HFR . KSN . LM8 . PEX . PMT . QML . RTR . S2R . STK . SVY .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
S32: 1
Title FY26
Forecast		 FY27
Forecast
EPS (cps) 18.7 xxx
DPS (cps) 7.4 xxx
EPS Growth N/A xxx
DPS Growth N/A xxx
PE Ratio 13.9 xxx
Dividend Yield 2.9% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) 39.8% xxx
This company reports in USD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: N/A

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 N/A

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 19/09 - ex-div 4.57c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 202020212022202320242025
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.9
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9.3
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8,924.8 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx300.3
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,061.4 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.50 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 202020212022202320242025
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.65 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.17 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.32 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.65 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.20 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx67.9 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 202020212022202320242025
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx407 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,086 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,493 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx212 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,559 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.97

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 202020212022202320242025
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,548.7 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17.35 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,382 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx398 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,749 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.5

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

29/08/2025

3

Neutral

$3.00

18.11%

Following a deeper review of South32's FY25 result, Citi lowered FY26 EBITDA forecast by -30% and FY27 by -20%, with underlying net profit forecasts downgraded even further. 

The downgrade was mainly due to lower Cannington volumes and higher costs.

Target trimmed to $3.00 from $3.20. Neutral maintained.

In a flash note, Citi noted:

Initial appraisal is South32's FY25 result is broadly in-line but higher FY26 costs are a "modest negative". 

Management provided first time FY27 production guidance and the broker notes FY26 production guidance is unchanged except for Mozal Aluminium and Cannington.

Looking to FY27, South32 expects 4% production growth at Worsley Alumina as the refinery returns towards nameplate capacity with improved access to bauxite and 5% growth at Sierra Gorda due to higher planned copper grades.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.88 cents and EPS of 7.75 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 14.11 cents and EPS of 28.07 cents.

Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Canaccord Genuity

20/08/2025

3

Hold

$2.60

2.36%

Management at South32 has updated production guidance for Mozal, with Canaccord Genuity noting the asset is now expected to be placed on care and maintenance once its power contract expires in March 2026.

The broker assumes shutdown costs of around -US$40m, based on precedent from similar smelter closures.

Without Mozal, the analysts note aluminium output would fall to 887kt in FY27 from 1,211kt in FY25, leaving Hillside as the only profitable smelter, while Brazil Aluminium continues to operate at a loss.

Although a deal on power supply remains possible, Canaccord considers idling the more likely outcome.

Modellng adjustments see the broker cut its FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -2% and FY27 by -4%, with limited impact given prior assumptions of higher power costs.

For FY25 results due August 28, the analysts expect underlying earnings of US$608m versus consensus US$654m.

Canaccord maintains its Hold rating and $2.60 target.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.58 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

S32 STOCK CHART

FNArena News on S32

1
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 05-09-25

Sep 08 2025 - Weekly Reports
2
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 29-08-2025

Aug 29 2025 - Australia
3
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 20, 2025

Aug 20 2025 - Daily Market Reports
4
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 18, 2025

Aug 18 2025 - Daily Market Reports
5
Next Week At A Glance – 18-22 Aug 2025

Aug 15 2025 - Weekly Reports

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