SOUTH32 LIMITED (S32)
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S32

S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Mining
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 2.08
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

South32 is a mining and metals company producing alumina, aluminium, energy and metallurgical coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead and zinc in Australia, Southern Africa and South America. It was spun out of BHP Billiton in 2015.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$2.91

21 Aug
2025

0.040

OPEN

$2.90

1.39%

HIGH

$2.92

18,772,917

LOW

$2.87

TARGET
$3.467 19.1% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
5EA . AMN . APC . ARV . AZY . BCI . BML . CNB . COD . CXM . DRE . EM2 . HFR . KSN . LM8 . PEX . PMT . QML . RTR . S2R . STK . SVY .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
S32: 1
Title FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) 23.1 xxx
DPS (cps) 9.6 xxx
EPS Growth N/A xxx
DPS Growth N/A xxx
PE Ratio 12.3 xxx
Dividend Yield 3.4% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) 41.6% xxx
This company reports in USD.
All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 1.32%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 1.92

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 19/09 - ex-div 4.57c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-6.9
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.2
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8,361.2 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx297.2
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,707.6 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-11.64 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-7.08 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-6.17 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-4.51 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-7.08 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.67 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-131.2 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx334 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,011 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,345 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx208 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,261 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.23

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,710.7 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx20.46 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,661 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx429 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,621 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.7

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

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$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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3

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xx.xx%

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xx/xx/xxxx

3

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Morgan Stanley

15/08/2025

1

Overweight

$3.45

18.56%

South32 confirmed low confidence in securing sufficient, affordable power for Mozal beyond March 2026, and expects to place it on care and maintenance at the end of current power agreement.

From this month, the company will limit investment, stop pot relining and stand down contractors. An impairment of -US$372m will be recognised in FY25 financial result.

Guidance for Mozal production cut to 240kt compared with Morgan Stanley's forecast of 370kt. The impact on EBITDA is expected to -US$80m in FY26 and -US$210m in FY27 if shutdown lasts for entire FY27.

Overweight. Target retained at $3.45. Industry view: Attractive.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.84 cents and EPS of 23.22 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.84 cents and EPS of 40.25 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Canaccord Genuity

20/08/2025

3

Hold

$2.60

-10.65%

Management at South32 has updated production guidance for Mozal, with Canaccord Genuity noting the asset is now expected to be placed on care and maintenance once its power contract expires in March 2026.

The broker assumes shutdown costs of around -US$40m, based on precedent from similar smelter closures.

Without Mozal, the analysts note aluminium output would fall to 887kt in FY27 from 1,211kt in FY25, leaving Hillside as the only profitable smelter, while Brazil Aluminium continues to operate at a loss.

Although a deal on power supply remains possible, Canaccord considers idling the more likely outcome.

Modellng adjustments see the broker cut its FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -2% and FY27 by -4%, with limited impact given prior assumptions of higher power costs.

For FY25 results due August 28, the analysts expect underlying earnings of US$608m versus consensus US$654m.

Canaccord maintains its Hold rating and $2.60 target.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.82 cents and EPS of 20.12 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.57 cents and EPS of 12.38 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

S32 STOCK CHART

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