BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED (BVS)
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14/08/2025

3

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform

$2.03

-10.96%

Bravura Solutions’ FY25 revenue came in around 3% above guidance and earnings (EBITDA) around 6% ahead, helped by currency, UK R&D incentives, and stronger professional services, explains Macquarie.

FY26 guidance is for flat revenue despite a -4.5% attrition headwind, notes the broker, with cash earnings expected to exceed $50m (versus $43.8m in FY25), implying at least a -3% opex reduction.

Customer exits from both FY25 and prior years will weigh on revenue, suggests Macquarie, though existing clients, cross-sell, and some new wins should offset.

The broker's EPS forecasts rise 27–32% for FY26–27, but the broker cuts its long-term growth assumption due to client attrition risk and growth contribution from cost out.

The target price falls to $2.03 from $3.17. Macquarie also downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.

15/08/2025

3

Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight

$3.17

39.04%

Following FY25 results, Wilsons lowers its target for Bravura Solutions to $2.10 form $3.17 and downgrades to Market Weight from Overweight.

FY25 revenue was broadly in line with the broker's forecasts at $257m, up 3% year-on-year including FX impacts, with recurring revenue comprising 60% of the total.

The broker notes underlying group earnings (EBITDA) of $50.5m nearly doubled on last year, driven largely by a $14m lift in the APAC region, while cash earnings of $44m were 10% ahead of forecasts.

Adjusted profit of $24.4m was materially higher year-on-year but -12% below the broker’s estimate.

For FY26, management guides to revenue in line with FY25 and cash earnings of more than $50m, implying around 15% growth.

The broker now has lower conviction in the near-term outlook given a flat revenue profile, ongoing leadership uncertainty with the CEO role still open, and the chairman stepping down at the AGM.

Wilsons raises FY26 cash earnings forecasts by 14% and FY27 by 6% but lowers its valuation multiple. 

FORECAST
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.