The Short Report – 30 Mar 2023

This story features LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LTR

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

By Greg Peel

Week Ending March 24, 2023.

Last week saw the ASX200 steady and find a bottom post the banking crisis, before rallying this week.

On Tuesday, that rally was energised by a takeover offer for lithium miner Liontown Resources ((LTR)) from the world’s biggest lithium producer, US-based Albemarle. Liontown shares jumped 68%, and dragged up other listed lithium miners in sympathy, notably Core Lithium ((CXO)), Sayona Mining ((SYA)) and Lake Resources ((LKE)), among others.

What is notable is that as of last week, Liontown was 9.1% shorted, up from 8.4% the week before and Core Lithium was 10.1% shorted, up from 9.9%, while Sayona was largely steady on 8.6% and Lake Resources on 6.2%.

In other words, as of last week lithium miners were quite prevalent targets for the shorters, as lithium prices began to rollover. No doubt the extensive rallies seen for those miners on Tuesday owed a lot to short-covering.

Next week’s table will be interesting.

The other sector that continues to draw short interest is discretionary retail. Last week Temple & Webster ((TPW)) moved up from the 6% bracket, which also contains Breville Group ((BRG)), to the 7% bracket to join JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), while Harvey Norman ((HVN)) appeared at the bottom of the table at 5.2%.

Brokers have been constantly warning that successive RBA rate hikes, the end of the post-covid splurge, and the upcoming fixed interest mortgage “cliff” will all weigh on consumer spending in 2023.

Only one stock saw a short position change of one percentage point or more last week. Betmakers Technology ((BET)) shorts fell to 7.0% from 10.1%. See below.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+
FLT     11.6
CXO   10.1
ZIP      10.0

Out: BET

9.0-9.9

MP1, LTR

In: LTR           Out: CXO

8.0-8.9%

SYA

Out: LTR

7.0-7.9%

JBH, BRN, PBH, TPW, BET

In: BET, TPW

6.0-6.9%

AMA, BRG, VUL, NXT, DOW, MSB, ARB, LKE

Out: TPW, ACL

5.0-5.9%

ACL, CCP, ABB, 29M, AWC, IEL, SHV, BOQ, WEB, UMG, HVN, BOE, CUV

In: ACL, HVN, BOE             Out: AMI, LLC, NVX

Movers & Shakers

Betmakers Technology is not a bookmaker but a provider of software to assist bookies in setting their odds, but is a major partner in the News Corp-backed bookmaker Betr. The stock has been hanging around unmoved in the 10%-plus shorted club for many weeks, despite the share price being down -46% from its January peak.

Last week shorts dropped to 7.0% from 10.1%, despite the share price tracking basically sideways over the week.

No FNArena database broker covers Betmakers, so we can only assume there is some connection with the fact high profile bookie Tom Waterhouse last week sold -$4.6m worth of his stake in Betmakers, reducing his holding from 5.6% to not “substantial”.

Betmakers has now joined PointsBet Holdings ((PBH)) in the 7% shorted bracket.

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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