Western Sydney In New NSW Government’s Focus

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The future of Western Sydney and the new NSW government will remain closely intertwined.

-Success in Western Sydney seats played a key role in the Labor Party winning the NSW state election
-Region looks immensely different today than when the Labor Party last held power in NSW in 2011
-It can be expected the future success – or setbacks – the new government and Western Sydney encounter will be closely intertwined 

By Ed Kennedy

On Saturday 25 March, New South Wales (NSW) voted for a change of government, bringing to an end the Coalition – composed of the Liberal Party and the National Party – government’s twelve years in office since its initial election victory in 2011. 

Taking its place is a Labor Party government, led by Premier Chris Minns. In the years since the NSW Labor Party was last in power, the growth of Western Sydney has been very significant. 

What’s more, as illustrated by plans like those for Western Sydney International Airport and A Metropolis of Three Cities by the Greater Cities Commission, it’s clear the core of Sydney’s economic life will continue to trend west. 

Removing a wages cap on public sector pay was a headline-generating promise in the campaign, but so too were promises around transport and no privatisation of state assets. 

These are set to be a particularly significant part of the new government’s plans for the next four years – at a time of profound economic uncertainty and turbulence. 

One way or another, it’s expected the fate of Western Sydney and the new NSW government will be very closely interwoven.

A Snapshot of Western Sydney

The vision of A Metropolis of Three Cities provides for the population and economic growth of Greater Sydney continuing to surge west. 

Under the plan, there shall be the Eastern Harbour City – aka the traditional Sydney CBD – the Central River City, and the Western Parkland City. 

Alongside the success surrounding the push to make Parramatta a second CBD, the progress of Western Sydney International Airport – set to begin operations by 2026 – is expected to attract an abundance of new economic activity to its surrounds, and Western Sydney more widely as a whole. 

But just as the population and wealth of Western Sydney is set to significantly increase in years ahead, so too is the region experiencing some substantial change in other ways. 

In addition to mortgage, rent, and other cost of living pressures being felt particular vividly in numerous areas within Sydney’s west, the immense challenge of having infrastructure – already regarded by many as being behind the pace in a region that is presently very car-reliant – come to properly meet existing and emerging needs, has become even more substantial.

These dynamics heavily informed the new NSW government’s campaign for office in Western Sydney. 

Western Sydney Playing Host to Key Swing Seats

Western Sydney and – depending on how one measures its precise start and end – its surrounds played a crucial role in the outcome of the NSW election. 

The electorates of Camden, Leppington, Penrith, and Riverstone were all key to helping NSW Labor win power, and – while counting among them continues at time of writing – none have been called for Coalition candidates.

The fact the increase in pressure on mortgage owners due to rising interest rates has been a result of a federal body in the Reserve Bank – and that it’s ultimately a Labor government currently presiding over the federal system within which this (independent) central bank sits – evidently did not convert into voters seeking to blame NSW Labor for any issues linked to the federal government’s domain. 

Instead, the outcome of these seats suggests NSW Labor’s campaign promising to ease cost of living pressures was sufficient for voters, even if much irritation presently exists surrounding the Reserve Bank amongst mortgage holders. 

This said, some would say the Albanese government is still in a ‘honeymoon’ period. Albeit, while now drawing close to their one-year anniversary in office.

Overall, whatever frustration exists out there among mortgage holders surrounding the Reserve Bank, the NSW Coalition was essentially unable to stop the bleeding away of votes from former supporters of the Liberal Party across Western Sydney, and this proved critical to their loss of power. 

This suggests for all the focus on cost of living and ‘bread and butter’ issues in the campaign, some deeper undercurrents were indeed also at play. 

The Popularity of Publicly-Owned

The merits of public versus privately-owned infrastructure is a perpetually unending debate, and one that will continue to rage for years to come. 

Yet, what is clear is the NSW Labor Party identified in its promises surrounding no privatisation a vote-winner with the electorate. 

In particular, with those feeling the hip-pocket pain of toll fees in their weekly commutes, among other cost of living pressures. 

The promise by Chris Minns is similar to that of Premier Daniel Andrews in the southern state of Victoria. Andrews successfully campaigned for a third term in his state’s 2022 election, on a promise to revive the State Electricity Commission. 

As with all states and territories around the country, Victoria’s electorate marches to its own drum. 

Nonetheless, we’ve now seen over the past year two Labor leaders, who oversee the nation’s two biggest populations, making promises around public assets a key foundation of their election campaigns. 

Furthermore, in addition to Chris Minns promising to block the privatisation of Sydney Water, he also indicated prior to winning office he would make public the contract between the former NSW government and toll road operator Transurban ((TCL)).

Like their counterparts in Victoria, the NSW Labor Party also made reducing pressures around transport a focal point in its quest for power.

Transport Fees Taking a Toll

It’s no revelation to say many in Sydney’s west are heavily reliant on toll roads.

Motorists regularly utilise routes like the M2 Hills, the M7 Westlink, and the M5 South-West Motorway. 

The former Coalition government introduced a policy prior to the election which would allow eligible motorists who spend more than $375 a year on tolls to claim up to $750 back in rebates each financial year. 

The Labor Party promised to keep existing rebates in place and adopt the Coalition policy, while also capping toll costs at $60 per week for eligible motorists. 

Additionally, the NSW Labor Party said it’d initiate an overhaul of the toll network, with a review to be led by former ACCC chair Professor Allan Fels. Also, it said it would deliver a $1.1bn package to upgrade roads in Sydney and regional NSW.

Other Promises Made by the New NSW Government

Although promises surrounding public servant pay, privatisation, and transport were among the most prominent in the campaign, it’s notable the new NSW government has also promised to reduce the use of private labour hire. The reduced use of third-party workers is said to result in -$1.6bn in savings for the NSW state budget. 

Looking further beyond Western Sydney and into the west of NSW, the Labor Party guaranteed it would spend $650m on regional roads, in addition to undertaking to build three regional ambulance helicopter bases. 

The new NSW government also committed to implementing safe staffing levels across the state’s health system. The target of four years has been set for the recruiting of an additional 1200 nurses and midwives, at the cost of $175m.

Western Sydney’s Future Growth Will Require Sailing Around Storm Clouds

For all of Western Sydney’s progress and promise, it must be noted that it’d, of course, be a mistake to think the growth of the region is simply unstoppable, especially in the next few years. 

Although the notion seems unimaginable now after Australia has emerged confidently from the difficult covid-19 lockdowns that arose in years prior, the reality is a dangerous new variant could potentially see restrictions reintroduced once more. 

What’s more, while it was a century between the H1N1 and covid-19 pandemics, factors such as greater urban density and the more rapid transit of people across borders, affirm the fact that it’s expected the next pandemic will not take another century to arrive.

If new restrictions on in-person work and airline travel arose once more in the next few years, the momentum currently behind the ‘three cities’ strategy for Sydney could stall. 

Ultimately, it’s unlikely on what we know today that Western Sydney’s momentum would stop. It may perhaps just hit a speed bump in the event some new (small to medium) public health restrictions did arise in the next few years. 

Nonetheless, anyone pondering the middle years of this decade in Western Sydney, and a new NSW government, thinking the bad old days of the pandemic are definitely behind them, would do well to take pause. 

Overall, neither Western Sydney, NSW, or Australia can be said to be totally free and clear, and out of the woods in this regard.

In turn, it’s no revelation to say the heavy dependency upon cars will pose a challenge in many ways to the future of Western Sydney’s growth. 

If all goes well, the three cities plan will help take great pressure off the traditional CBD, but seeing Western Sydney become more user-friendly for those not using a private vehicle will take much time, and involve navigating many more twists and turns. 

The new NSW government’s promise to review train timetables, provide more express services, and establish an industry taskforce to improve bus services, could yield some improvements to public transport offerings in a relatively short time.

This as distinct from more major endeavours like the construction of new Metro lines, which take much longer to come online. 

Overall, in many ways the Minns government will have a very difficult dynamic before it in the years ahead. 

On the one hand, it will have to continue to encourage the growth of Western Sydney’s population and economy. On the other hand, it must improve on the present public transport offerings there to a significantly noticeable degree.

This is especially because anyone who voted for Labor with public transport as a key issue in their mind this year, will surely be expecting to see clear-cut improvements have been made by the time the next state election comes around in 2027.

A Tight Budget Will Require a Great Balancing Act to Succeed

Historically, Labor governments were perceived to campaign and come to office promising to spend more, and promising the investment made would be worth the extra expense in terms of the benefits brought to the public. 

In turn, Coalition leaders were commonly held to run and come to office with the promise of improving the state’s finances, and reducing ‘big government’. 

As anyone who has observed Australian politics for a sufficient period of time would note, while these broad perceptions have perhaps been ‘baked in’ within the general public for a long time, the truth surrounding them is far more nuanced. 

The new NSW government will be conscious of what the voting public perceives as Labor’s traditional strengths and weaknesses, and this will, of course, inform its approach to governing.

The early weeks of March saw news emerge that NSW Treasury officials held in their pre-election budget update that the deficit for this financial year would grow to -$12.03bn.  

This follows the estimate in June last year accompanying the state budget that net debt would be $114.8bn by the 2025-2026 financial year.

Many would hold the view these are uncomfortable numbers in good times, and in a period of soaring interest rates that increases borrowing costs, even more so. 

Common wisdom says every new government in its first term can expect a ‘honeymoon’ period with the public. 

In turn, greater political capital than it would otherwise have to push through new plans promised on the campaign trail. 

But, should the public balance sheet worsen substantially for the new NSW government – whether due to their own acts, omissions, or events beyond their control – it would not only limit the levers they have available to pull in search of remedies, but also reduce their prospects of re-election in 2027. 

NSW Labor will want to ensure it is seen to have ‘made good’ on its promises it ran on, especially in Western Sydney, and particularly around cost of living pressures. 

NSW Labor has promised to open the public purse in areas such as uncapping public servant pay, and capping toll fees to $60 a week. It’s no revelation to say any government of any political stripe who increases a citizen’s pay and/or reduces their expenses could be very well-placed indeed to win their vote (once again) the next time around. 

Also, NSW Labor will want to avoid heading into a re-election campaign having significantly increased the budget deficit. 

This would (further) enable the Coalition to campaign for re-election on its traditional strengths surrounding the promise to ‘restore order’ to the public books.

Where to Now for the Coalition?

Presently, the Coalition is now facing a period out of office with great complexity surrounding a post-election assessment of their NSW loss. 

On the one hand, it will be pleased that the ’teal wave’ seen in last May’s federal election didn’t see a repeat in the state vote. Thus, the notion after the last federal election that teal candidates would be set to snatch many seats from the Liberal Party in forthcoming elections, has – as Victoria’s 2022 state election also evidenced – so far not panned out. 

But, much soul-searching will be required nonetheless by the Coalition. 

Alongside federally, Labor is now in office in every Australian state and territory government, except for Tasmania. 

In turn, the loss of the formerly Liberal-held Victorian seat of Aston to Labor in the federal by-election on 1 April – the first time in over a century that a sitting government has won a by-election – is likely not only to be significant to Australia’s history, but also the future of the Coalition.

The Aston result seemingly evidences that even if the Albanese government secured only a narrow majority last May, the trend of the Liberal Party losing cherished ground in its traditional heartlands, as also seen in the Victorian and NSW state elections following the federal poll, will continue for some time yet.

Furthermore, the path back to office for a party that has traditionally been pro-privatisation and small government – at a time where many in the voting public are struggling with cost of living pressures, and are especially receptive to policies which see government intervene directly to provide some relief from them – is not easy to identify. 

At least without it shifting away substantially from the party's historical guiding principles. 

In turn, the declining rate of home ownership among younger generations is also proving to be a growing problem for the Coalition, as many younger voters move towards parties like Labor and the Greens, perceiving within them a readiness to pursue more proactive reforms that would stall or reverse this trend. 

The Challenge of Making History – But Not Repeating It

Just as some unique pitfalls could await the new NSW government in its path ahead – given the largely unprecedented and exceptional circumstances that the covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath brought about, among other challenges – so too does it have the opportunity to carve a new path. 

It’s also arguably been the beneficiary of some fortunate timing, as all new governments ultimately are in one way or another. The ground beneath it has moved in recent years to favour resistance to privatisation, and resistance to it is traditionally in the Labor DNA. 

Yet equally, were the new NSW government to not remain mindful of the mistakes of previous Labor governments, it could find that though history has perhaps swung in its favour early on, it could yet swing back. 

Seeking to maintain and enhance the growth of Western Sydney, while avoiding an increase in the challenges that accompany such growth, will be key to the fate and fortunes of the new NSW government in this term of office. 

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