Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 08, 2024

This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALL   AND   CAR   CIA   CMM   DHG   IGO   IPD   LNW   NUF   NXT   PBH   PRN   QOR   REA   SEK   SFR   SPK   SYA   TLS   TPG  

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $43.86

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Buy (1) –

In an incremental positive for Aristocrat Leisure, Quebec in Canada has announced its much anticipated video lottery terminal (VLT) replacement orders. It's expected the company will place 1,000 units per annum across the province.

Outright sales to business-to-government (B2G), semi-commercial entities tend to be largely directed to the incumbent IGT, Aristocrat and Light & Wonder, explains the broker.

Target $47.20. Buy.

This report was published on January 31, 2024.

Target price is $47.20 Current Price is $43.86 Difference: $3.34
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 220.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.9, implying annual growth of -4.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.7, implying annual growth of 7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AND    ANSARADA GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AND)) as Buy (1) –

Ansarada Group's 2Q revenue beat Canaccord Genuity's forecast by 8%. Management stated "the (calendar) year ended well with momentum continuing and January kicked off strongly”.

The group is benefiting from a greater uptake of customers on multi-product solutions, explains the broker, and active customer growth
remains sequentially strong.

Consensus forecasts are likely underestimating the company's operating leverage to a pick-up in capital markets, according to the analysts. It's felt the group remains in the early-stage of an upgrade cycle.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target is increased to $2.20 from $2.00 on the broker's higher forecasts for earnings.

This report was published on February 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.395
If AND meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.57.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CAR GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $33.43

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAR)) as Neutral (3) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs expects to see an increased focus on international business for classifieds following recent merger and acquisition activity, with REA Group ((REA)) and Seek ((SEK)) pursuing investment in India and Asia respectively.

For CAR Group, the Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.00 from $29.00.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $33.43 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting downside of -7.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.7, implying annual growth of -54.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $8.19

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

In Champion Iron's 4Q, the Bloom Lake operation delivered record production of 4mt, well ahead of nameplate (15mtpa) on an annualised basis, points out Jarden.

Due to operational inefficiency by the external rail operator, 4Q sales materially lagged, with 2.4mt of concentrate at site awaiting rail to port and shipment, explain the analysts.

With the final investment decision (FID) pending on the Kami project (only a few kms from Bloom Lake), the broker believes management will likely consider joint ventures as a basis for proceeding.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.24 from $8.54.

This report was published on February 1, 2024.

Target price is $9.24 Current Price is $8.19 Difference: $1.05
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.70 cents and EPS of 87.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.34.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.12 cents and EPS of 91.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.98.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.33

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Second quarter production (pre-reported) and costs (AISC) for Capricorn Metals were in line with forecasts by Canaccord Genuity and consensus. FY24 production guidance was maintained.

The broker anticipates first production at Mt Gibson in the March quarter of 2026, a delay from the September quarter 2025, with meaningful plant construction activities beginning in mid-2025.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.75 from $5.85.

This report was published on February 2, 2024.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $1.42
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.46.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.93.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs expects to see an increased focus on international business for classifieds following recent merger and acquisition activity, with REA Group ((REA)) and Seek ((SEK)) pursuing investment in India and Asia respectively.

For Domain Holdings Australia, the Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.55 from $3.50.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.1
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 98.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 18.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $7.05

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden lowers its target for IGO to $9.61 from $9.73 in reaction to the additional -$160-190m write down for the Western Areas asset. The Odysseus underground mine at the Cosmos nickel project has also been placed on care & maintenance.

The above two occurrences were expected by the broker, but not the -$51m stamp duty payable to complete the Western Areas transaction ,and management's decision to pay down the corporate facility and increase the revolver commensurately.

In a similar circumstance to that of Alumina Ltd ((AWC)), note the analysts, the investment thesis for IGO now requires a level of comfort in being exposed to external corporate strategies, in this case, those of Tianqi and Albemarle. Buy.

This report was published on February 1, 2024.

Target price is $9.61 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $2.56
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.23, suggesting upside of 16.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 84.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.7, implying annual growth of -9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 72.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of -38.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.09

Wilsons rates ((IPD)) as Overweight (1) –

While Wilsons still believes ImpediMed can achieve peak sales for SOZO of more than $250m in oncology/lymphoedema, forecasts are trimmed for SaaS revenue derived from previous SOZO installments.

Following the company's 2Q report, the broker notes activity levels were a little lower. In the US, 13 SOZO systems were added and new total contract value (TCV) was $1.6m.

The analysts also take the opportunity to trim forecasts in the early days of the new CEO and CFO. The target falls to 20c from 26c. Overweight.

This report was published on February 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.108
If IPD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 117% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.20.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $128.02

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

In an incremental positive for Light & Wonder, Quebec in Canada has announced its much anticipated video lottery terminal (VLT) replacement orders. It's expected the company will place 1,000 units per annum across the province.

Outright sales to business-to-government (B2G), semi-commercial entities tend to be largely directed towards the incumbent IGT, Aristocrat and Light & Wonder, explains the broker.

Target $147. Buy.

This report was published on January 31, 2024.

Target price is $147.00 Current Price is $128.02 Difference: $18.98
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 158.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.57.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 372.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF    NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $5.62

Wilsons rates ((NUF)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons lowers 1H forecasts a little for Nufarm, following a "slightly soft " AGM update. It's felt headwinds are now stronger, though current trading conditions align with meeting prior management guidance.

Management referred to challenging 1H trading conditions for crop protection chemicals. No explicit FY24 guidance was provided.

The Market Weight rating is retained and the broker's target price increases to $5.28 from $5.13, reflecting a de-risking of Omega-3 canola due to increasing confidence in planted area growth.  A lift in the analyst's assumed risk-free rate to 4% from 3.5%, provides a valuation offset

This report was published on February 2, 2024.

Target price is $5.28 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 29.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 30.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $14.38

Goldman Sachs rates ((NXT)) as Buy (1) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs anticipates another rational year in telecoms, but does note some risk from elevated competition on the back of recent cellular offering industry developments. 

For NextDC, The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $16.60 from $15.80.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: $2.22
If NXT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.11, suggesting upside of 5.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.88

Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Despite a one third reduction in marketing spend over the 2Q, Jarden highlights a record quarter for the net win measure, which grew by 3% on the previous corresponding period.

PointsBet Holdings provided FY24 normalised EBITDA loss guidance of -$9m to -$14m, with the midpoint of the range less than the -$12m loss expected by consensus, which the broker considers a key highlight of the result.

The rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy after recent share price outperformance, while the target is increased to $1.00 from 94c.

This report was published on February 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.12
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.05.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRN    PERENTI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PRN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity cuts its FY25 EBIT forecast for Perenti following the announcement IGO Ltd's ((IGO)) Cosmos operations would be placed into care & maintenance by the end-of-May this year.

Following the conclusion of work at Savannah and Cosmos, the broker notes the company's exposure to nickel is around 6% of pro forma revenue. Gold and copper exposures account for around  75% of group revenue, while exposure to lithium is less than 1%.

Management reconfirmed its FY24 EBIT guidance of $310m-325m.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.20 from $1.40. First half results are due on February 20.

This report was published on February 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.38
If PRN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.19.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QOR    QORIA LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((QOR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on cyber safety solutions company Qoria, formerly called Family Zone, with a Buy rating and 40c target. The company has built an ecosystem of products that safeguard children at schools and home, highlight the analysts.

The broker identifies several core growth drivers for Qoria including further penetration into UK schools/US districts, and product expansion into the UK.

The analysts also suggest regulatory tailwinds in both the UK and US markets will potentially increase sales leads, while ongoing bolt-on acquisitions/consolidation should also boost growth for the company.

Management expects to achieve EBITDA profitability in FY25, guiding to run-rate earnings margins of 20% in FY26.

This report was published on February 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.155
If QOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.90.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $184.13

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs expects to see an increased focus on international business for classifieds following recent merger and acquisition activity, with REA Group and Seek ((SEK)) pursuing investment in India and Asia respectively.

For REA Group, the Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $204.00 from $179.00.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Target price is $204.00 Current Price is $184.13 Difference: $19.87
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $164.86, suggesting downside of -10.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 350.5, implying annual growth of 30.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 411.5, implying annual growth of 17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 236.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $26.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Sell (5) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs expects to see an increased focus on international business for classifieds following recent merger and acquisition activity, with REA Group ((REA)) and Seek pursuing investment in India and Asia respectively.

For Seek, the Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $24.90 from $23.00.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $26.02 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $25.84, suggesting downside of -0.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of -79.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.8, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $7.13

Jarden rates ((SFR)) as Overweight (2) –

Group earnings (EBITDA) and copper equivalent production for Sandfire Resources in the 2Q were beats of 10% and 5%, respectively, compared to Jarden's forecasts.

Production at the Motheo operations beat the broker's estimate, while zinc production at Matsa also exceeded expectation. Cost discipline was considered a feature of the results.

Management maintained all FY24 guidance metrics.

The analyst's Overweight rating is kept and the target rises to $6.50 from $6.40.

This report was published on January 31, 2024.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 427.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.58 cents and EPS of 55.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPK    SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.91

Goldman Sachs rates ((SPK)) as Sell (5) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs anticpates another rational year in telecoms, but does note some risk from elevated competition on the back of recent cellular offering industry developments. 

For Spark New Zealand, the Sell rating and target price of NZ$4.90 are retained.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Current Price is $4.91. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting downside of -8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.99 cents and EPS of 23.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYA)) as Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy (3) –

Sayona Mining's 2Q production beat Canaccord Genuity's forecast due to a better-than-expected ramp-up at the North American Lithium (NAL) operations, but missed on cash costs.

The broker's rating is downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy pending outcomes of an operational review of NAL, which has the potential to jeopardise management's FY24 production guidance.

The company expects the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the 60%-owned Moblan project by Q1 of FY24.

The target plummets to 6c from 20c, largely due to the analysts' removal of NAL downstream and Moblan from base-case assumptions, and the risking for both operations is also increased.

This report was published on February 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.021
If SYA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 390.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 195.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs anticipates another rational year in telecoms, but does note some risk from elevated competition on the back of recent cellular offering industry developments. 

For Telstra Group, the Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.65 from $4.70.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.66
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.37, suggesting upside of 9.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $5.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Neutral (3) –

It is clear to Goldman Sachs that market expectations for interest rates will be a significant determinant of share price performance and shareholder returns for its domestic telecoms, media and technology (TMT) coverage through the coming year.

Overall, the broker sees the TMT space as well-positioned to continue to deliver robust earnings growth. It expects rate cuts to underpin a renewed focus on growth.

Goldman Sachs anticpates another rational year in telecoms, but does note some risk from elevated competition on the back of recent cellular offering industry developments. 

For TPG Telecom, the Neutral rating and target price of $5.70 are retained.

This report was published on January 30, 2024.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $0.36
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 5.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of -46.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 25.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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