The Overnight Report: US Bonds Repricing

This story features RIO TINTO LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO

World Overnight
SPI Overnight 8233.00 – 4.00 – 0.05%
S&P ASX 200 8205.40 + 55.40 0.68%
S&P500 5695.94 – 55.13 – 0.96%
Nasdaq Comp 17923.90 – 213.95 – 1.18%
DJIA 41954.24 – 398.51 – 0.94%
S&P500 VIX 22.64 + 3.43 17.86%
US 10-year yield 4.03 + 0.05 1.13%
USD Index 102.49 – 0.03 – 0.03%
FTSE100 8303.62 + 22.99 0.28%
DAX30 19104.10 – 16.83 – 0.09%

Good morning.

A broad re-pricing of anticipated Fed rate cuts in the months ahead is triggering higher yields for the US bond market, creating a headwind for US equities, in particular higher-multipled growth stocks.

Economists at ANZ Bank report futures locally are indicating more moderate moves in AUD rates.

AUD/USD eased into the mid-0.67c range as the USD remained firm and safer haven currencies outperformed.

In Europe, equities closed higher following soft economic data and rising concern about inflation possibly undershooting.

German August factory orders reported their largest drop since January.

As tensions in the Middle East remain high, crude oil futures remain well supported.

WTI rose 3.3% to US$76.8/bbl and Brent lifted above US$80/bbl for the first time since August. Gold eased -0.4% to US$2,646.0/oz with both higher yields and a stronger greenback to blame.

Base metals held steady, with ANZ Bank reporting traders await the re-opening of Chinese markets after a week-long holiday.

“Sentiment among Chinese attendees at last week’s LME Week in London was particularly buoyant following Beijing’s recent economic stimulus packages. This has raised the prospect of a sustained boost to demand.

“Five senior officials from the National Development and Reform Commission are scheduled to speak at a press briefing that may outline further plans for public spending.

“Nickel managed to push higher as supply cuts came back into focus. Power issues at Vale’s Onca Puma operation in Brazil will disrupt supply.

“Japan’s Sumitomo Corp is said to be assessing operations at its Ambatovy nickel mine in Madagascar after a slurry pipeline was damaged.

“These come after a quiet period following several supply closures at the start of the year.”

Those until recently in desperation about their holdings in underperforming lithium stocks are wearing a big smile as Rio Tinto’s ((RIO)) interest in Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)) has re-awoken traders’ interest in the sector, with share prices back in vogue across the spectrum.

SPI futures are indicating not much movement at the index level for the ASX this morning. Underneath the surface, of course, there should be plenty of opposing movements.

On the calendar today:

-ANZ Bank job ads

-NAB business confidence

-Sept RBA minutes

-US Sept NFIB

-Perenti ((PRN)) ex-div 4c (6%)

-Reece ((REH)) ex-div 17.75c (100%)

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Corporate news in Australia:

-IGO Ltd ((IGO)) believed to be the frontrunner to acquire Rio Tinto’s ((RIO)) Winu Project, a copper-gold deposit, with South32 ((S32)) also showing interest

-Bowen Coking Coal ((BCB)) is reportedly looking to raise $70m through an entitlement offer and has secured $40.5m in commitments from key investors

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz) 2662.90 – 10.30 – 0.39%
Silver (oz) 31.97 – 0.48 – 1.48%
Copper (lb) 4.55 – 0.01 – 0.31%
Aluminium (lb) 1.19 – 0.01 – 0.48%
Nickel (lb) 4.56 – 3.50 – 43.46%
Zinc (lb) 1.43 + 0.00 0.15%
West Texas Crude 77.36 + 2.91 3.91%
Brent Crude 81.10 + 2.96 3.79%
Iron Ore (t) 112.39 + 3.55 3.26%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days

Index 07 Oct 2024 Week To Date Month To Date (Oct) Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec) Year To Date (2024)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) 8205.40 0.68% -0.78% -0.78% 8.10%
BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
COH Cochlear Upgrade to Neutral from Sell Citi
SGR Star Entertainment Downgrade to Reduce from Hold Morgans

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

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CHARTS

BCB IGO LTM PRN REH RIO S32

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BCB - BOWEN COKING COAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LTM - ARCADIUM LITHIUM PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PRN - PERENTI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: REH - REECE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED